????隨著本周希臘危機(jī)引來(lái)關(guān)鍵節(jié)點(diǎn)，歐洲交易員們開(kāi)始擔(dān)心歐元區(qū)其他成員國(guó)的財(cái)政健康問(wèn)題。這種擔(dān)心已悄然升級(jí)，直指歐元區(qū)核心成員國(guó)之一——意大利。

????意大利作為全球第三大公債市場(chǎng)若出現(xiàn)主權(quán)債務(wù)違約，將造成災(zāi)難性影響。雖然這樣的違約看來(lái)并非迫在眉睫，但歐洲交易員日益擔(dān)心未來(lái)某個(gè)時(shí)候可能出現(xiàn)違約——導(dǎo)火索可能是意大利的銀行業(yè)問(wèn)題。交易員們正在竭力對(duì)沖所持意大利和意大利銀行業(yè)的敞口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以免措手不及。如果意大利人不努力控制支出，這種恐慌可能蔓延至歐元區(qū)其他核心成員國(guó)。

????恐慌情緒正在歐洲市場(chǎng)中迅速蔓延，波及所有與意大利相關(guān)的產(chǎn)品。評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)穆迪(Moody's)已宣布，由于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)性疲弱以及周邊國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)震蕩，可能下調(diào)意大利主權(quán)債務(wù)評(píng)級(jí)。上周四，該評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)稱，若意大利主權(quán)債務(wù)評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)，還將下調(diào)13家意大利銀行的評(píng)級(jí)。

????最初市場(chǎng)忽略了穆迪的這份報(bào)告，但到了上周五午間，所有交易員們都開(kāi)始對(duì)組合“去風(fēng)險(xiǎn)化”。他們瘋狂購(gòu)入CDS，希望藉此抵御意大利公債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。其他交易員則開(kāi)始拋售意大利銀行股票，唯恐避之不及。在恐慌情緒中，意大利最大的兩家銀行——裕信銀行(UniCredit)和聯(lián)合圣保羅銀行(Intesa SanPaulo)的股價(jià)都跌了10%，觸發(fā)盤(pán)中停牌機(jī)制。復(fù)牌后，兩只股票當(dāng)日收盤(pán)分別下跌5.5%和4.3%。與此同時(shí)，意大利和德國(guó)10年期公債利差擴(kuò)大至212個(gè)基點(diǎn)，創(chuàng)下自歐元誕生以來(lái)的最高水平。

????意大利銀行業(yè)存在問(wèn)題，但如今它們似乎成為了意大利主權(quán)債務(wù)總體健康狀況的晴雨表。畢竟，它們持有超過(guò)1,500億歐元的意大利公債。周一，市場(chǎng)似乎恢復(fù)了一些平靜，一些意大利銀行股較上周五收盤(pán)價(jià)略有回升。但上周五的恐慌顯然已動(dòng)搖了市場(chǎng)對(duì)意大利的信心。

????“大多數(shù)荷蘭和歐洲銀行都開(kāi)始擔(dān)心，不再接受意大利（ 公債）作為抵押品，并正在降低南歐總敞口，”荷蘭一家大型金融公司的交易員接受《財(cái)富》(Fortune)雜志采訪時(shí)稱，“甚至連荷蘭養(yǎng)老基金也在回避?！?/p>

????周一意大利在市場(chǎng)中出售新債，不得不向投資者支付高得多的利率。意大利財(cái)政部出售的80億歐元6個(gè)月公債，收益率為1.988%，明顯高于上次售債時(shí)的1.657%。2013年到期的公債發(fā)行收益率為3.219%，也高于上次的2.851%。

危機(jī)根源

????不同于其他陷入困境的歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)，意大利的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題并非源于高額財(cái)政赤字。引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和交易員們憂慮的是意大利很高的債務(wù)/GDP比率，這源于意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)的結(jié)構(gòu)性低效，這一問(wèn)題已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致意大利近幾十年生產(chǎn)率下滑，增長(zhǎng)緩慢。

????意大利目前債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)約為1.8萬(wàn)億歐元，是全球第四大公債負(fù)債國(guó)。負(fù)債本身不是壞事；但當(dāng)賬面?zhèn)鶆?wù)額超過(guò)了生產(chǎn)率的時(shí)候，負(fù)債就成了問(wèn)題。意大利的負(fù)債/GDP比率處于令人警醒的120%，在歐洲僅次于希臘的140%?？少Y比較的是意大利的負(fù)債比率是西班牙的兩倍。

????過(guò)度支出當(dāng)然也是一個(gè)問(wèn)題，但近期負(fù)債比率上升是由于意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力。2008年意大利實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)率為-1.3%，2009年達(dá)到- 5.2%。雪上加霜的是，自從金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，意大利的失業(yè)率已上升了超過(guò)2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，處于8.3%左右，其中青年人失業(yè)率更是高達(dá)29%。

????要改變現(xiàn)狀，意大利有很多問(wèn)題需要處理，如減少浪費(fèi)，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)以及大力強(qiáng)化征稅等 (意大利政府估計(jì)避稅將導(dǎo)致該國(guó)2011年損失1,200億歐元稅款)。強(qiáng)勢(shì)歐元正在損害意大利的出口；出口占意大利GDP的30%左右，占比非常高。

????意大利人正在采取行動(dòng)，縮減支出。政府設(shè)定今年預(yù)算赤字目標(biāo)為3.9%，低于去年的4.6%。意大利總理西爾維奧?貝盧斯科尼本周敦促對(duì)財(cái)政緊縮方案進(jìn)行投票，目標(biāo)是到2014年消除預(yù)算赤字。方案提出削減支出430億歐元，數(shù)額較大，主要壓力都在接下來(lái)幾年。普遍相信貝盧斯科尼有能力推動(dòng)財(cái)政緊縮方案在國(guó)會(huì)獲得通過(guò)，但他的聯(lián)合政府中有些人抱怨方案提出的削減支出額過(guò)高。

????然而，縮減支出只是等式的一部分。意大利需要進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)改革，走上強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)的道路。這就是難點(diǎn)所在。意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)并不是很有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力——你能說(shuō)出多少家意大利科技公司的名稱？意大利的制造業(yè)和旅游業(yè)都受到強(qiáng)勢(shì)歐元的影響，而日益老齡化的人口還在要求上調(diào)工資。

????為了改變現(xiàn)狀，巴克萊(Barclays)分析師們認(rèn)為政府應(yīng)推遲退休年齡，簡(jiǎn)化稅收體系，并采用清晰的預(yù)算上限。他們還認(rèn)為政府應(yīng)進(jìn)一步采取措施，提高就業(yè)市場(chǎng)參與率，并降低一些超大型公司的政府持股比例。分析師們堅(jiān)信這會(huì)鼓勵(lì)外國(guó)直接投資流入意大利，幫助其走出債務(wù)黑洞。

????但由于償還新債的成本日益高昂，這樣的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革很難實(shí)現(xiàn)。借貸成本每上升1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，都會(huì)使意大利改善財(cái)政現(xiàn)狀的難度加大一分。目前，意大利公債的利率水平仍可應(yīng)付。但如果貝盧斯科尼不迅速采取行動(dòng)來(lái)解決意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)中的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題，利率可能飆升，降低意大利躲過(guò)災(zāi)難性違約的幾率。

????With the Greek crisis coming to a head this week, traders in Europe have started to worry about the fiscal health of other eurozone members. Now the worry has moved up the scale to one of the core eurozone members: Italy.

????A sovereign default in the world's third-largest public debt market would be catastrophic. While such a default doesn't appear imminent, there is growing fear on European trading desks that a default may occur sometime down the road -- set off primarily by troubles in the nation's banking sector. Traders are scrambling to hedge their exposure to the country and its banks just in case the unthinkable happens sooner rather than later. This panic could spread to other core eurozone members if the Italians fail to make a serious effort to rein in spending.

????There's a panic of sorts sweeping through European trading desks concerning all things Italian. Moody's has said that it may downgrade the country's debt due to macroeconomic structural weaknesses and the economic turmoil in neighboring countries. And last Thursday the ratings agency said that it might downgrade 13 Italian banks if the nation's sovereign rating was cut.

????The market initially ignored the Moody's report, but by midday on Friday traders started to "de-risk" their portfolios en masse. There was a mad dash to buy up protection against Italian debt using credit default swaps. Other traders then started to dump their Italian bank stocks and head for the hills. UniCredit and Intesa SanPaulo, the two largest banks in Italy, saw their stocks fall 10% in the panic, setting off circuit breakers, suspending trading. They later settled the day down 5.5% and 4.3%, respectively, once trading resumed. Meanwhile, the spread between Italian and German 10-year bonds widened to 212 basis points, its highest level since the creation of the euro.

????The Italian banks have troubles, but they seem to be acting as a proxy for the general health of Italy's sovereign debt. After all, they hold more than 150 billion euros of the stuff. On Monday, calm seemed to have set in with some of the Italian banks up slightly from Friday's close. But Friday's panic has clearly shaken the market's confidence in Italy.

????"Most Dutch and European banks are worried and are not accepting Italian [debt] as collateral and reducing overall exposure in anything southern European," a trader at a major Dutch financial firm tells Fortune. "Even the Dutch pension funds are avoiding it."

????Italy was forced to pay a much higher interest rate to investors when it came to the market to sell new debt on Monday. The Italian treasury sold 8 billion euros in six-month bonds at a yield of 1.988%, which is up sharply from the 1.657% paid during the last sale of government debt. Yields on bonds maturing in 2013 were issued at 3.219%, up from 2.851%.

Roots of the crisis

????Italy's main economic problem doesn't stem from a large fiscal deficit, as is the case with the other troubled eurozone members. What worries economists and traders is the nation's very high debt-to-GDP ratio emanating from structural inefficiencies in its economy. This has led to decades of declining productivity and poor growth.

????Italy's current debt load is around 1.8 trillion euros, making it the fourth-highest public debtor in the world. Having debt is not a bad thing; it just becomes a problem when the amount of debt on the books exceeds productivity. The nation's debt to GDP ratio stands at an alarming 120%, the second-highest in Europe after Greece at 140%. To put that into perspective, Italy's ratio is double that of Spain.

????Overspending is of course a problem, but the ratio has popped up recently due to anemic economic growth in the country. Italy's real GDP shrank by 1.3% in 2008 and a whopping 5.2% in 2009. To make matters worse, the unemployment rate has increased by more than two percentage points since the beginning of the financial crisis and stands at around 8.3%, with youth unemployment at around 29%.

????Italy has a number of problems it needs to deal with to get its house in order. It needs to cut waste, grow its economy and due a much better job of collecting taxes (the Italian government estimates that tax evasion will cost the nation 120 billion euros in 2011). A strong euro is hurting the country's exports, which accounts for around 30% of Italy's GDP, a very large number.

????The Italians are moving to cut spending. The government is targeting a budget deficit of 3.9% this year, down from the 4.6% last year. This week, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi plans on holding a vote on austerity measures meant to wipe out the budget deficit by 2014. The 43 billion euros in cuts that have been proposed are deep, with most of the pain pushed down the road. It is widely believed that Berlusconi will be successful in getting the austerity measures through the Italian Parliament, but there has been some grumbling from members in his coalition government who believe that the proposed cuts go too far.

????Cutting spending, though, is just one part of the equation. Italy needs to revamp its economy to put it on a strong growth path. This is where it gets tricky. The Italian economy isn't really cutting edge – how many Italian tech firms can you name? It moves manufacturing and tourism, both hurt by the strong euro, and has an aging population who demand higher wages.

????To get its house in order, the analysts at Barclays (BCS) believe that the government should increase the retirement age, simplify the tax system and adopt clear budgeting ceilings. They also believe the government should take further measures to enhance labor market participation and should reduce public ownership of some the nation's largest corporations. The analysts believe that this should encourage foreign direct investment inflows in to the country to help dig it out of its debt hole.

????But such structural reforms will be hard to accomplish as it becomes increasingly more expensive to service new debt. Every percentage point increase in borrowing costs makes it that much harder to get the nation's fiscal house in order. For now, the interest rate demanded on Italian government debt is manageable. But if Berlusconi doesn't move fast to address the structural problems in Italy's economy, the rate could skyrocket up, handicapping Italy's chances in avoiding a devastating default.