成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

立即打開
希臘不是阿根廷,違約之路不可行

希臘不是阿根廷,違約之路不可行

Nin-Hai Tseng 2011-07-01
有些經(jīng)濟學家以阿根廷和俄羅斯為據(jù),宣稱希臘違約事實上可能促進麻煩纏身的希臘經(jīng)濟加快增長。此言差矣!

????本周,所有的眼睛(仍)在盯著希臘債務危機。一旦希臘政府無法通過財政緊縮方案,確保希臘國內(nèi)根據(jù)去年幾十億歐元救助方案完成涉及1,110億歐元的預算削減和資產(chǎn)出售,希臘就距離違約風險又近了一步。

????以工會罷工為代表的抗議浪潮中,有人卻持有截然相反的觀點,他們認定違約對希臘可能沒那么糟。他們指出,阿根廷、俄羅斯等國在經(jīng)歷了違約后的短暫沉浮后,很快就出乎意料地重回正軌。

????這種觀點可能會讓希臘人稍感安心,但卻根本站不住腳。

????2001年阿根廷銀行體系危機爆發(fā)幾個月后,阿根廷818億美元主權債務出現(xiàn)違約。當年阿根廷GDP下降10.9%,并被信貸市場拒之門外。盡管融資困難,但阿根廷經(jīng)濟還是出現(xiàn)了復蘇,2003年以來該國經(jīng)濟年增長率超過8%。而且,阿根廷經(jīng)濟呈現(xiàn)的韌性,也讓一些人猜測希臘有望部分復制阿根廷的成功。

????“基本觀點是阿根廷違約后經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)非常好,”華盛頓智囊機構Center for Economc and Policy Research的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人迪恩?貝克寫道,“如果希臘人認為希臘經(jīng)濟能沿襲阿根廷經(jīng)濟過去9年半走過的路,希臘人肯定立馬愿意違約?!?/p>

????但希臘很難效仿阿根廷的復蘇之路。推動阿根廷迅速東山再起的一個重要因素恰恰是希臘所不具備的,即農(nóng)業(yè)出口。相比希臘經(jīng)濟增長主要依賴服務業(yè),農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口幫助阿根廷渡過了經(jīng)濟低迷期。阿根廷享有貿(mào)易順差,并受益于農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品的國際價格上漲。阿根廷作為主產(chǎn)國的大豆,其價格已從2003年的200美元/噸升至今日的約500美元/噸。

????除了旅游和航運服務,希臘事實上出口很少,而且外國直接投資幾乎為零。因此,即便希臘違約,退出歐元體系,實行本幣貶值,也很難看到希臘通過出口走出經(jīng)濟低迷期。

????“這些優(yōu)勢,希臘無一具備;而且,希臘的經(jīng)濟增長存在結構性問題,即便重組也不會改善,” 彼得森國際經(jīng)濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)從事歐洲經(jīng)濟和改革研究的雅各布?方克?柯克加德表示。

????與阿根廷類似,1998年違約的俄羅斯狀況也在好轉。經(jīng)過十年深度下跌后,俄羅斯經(jīng)濟正在回升,動力也是大宗商品(特別是石油)價格的上漲。俄羅斯政府已償還了對外債務。雖然2009年,俄羅斯經(jīng)濟在全球金融危機期間受挫,但2000-2010年俄羅斯經(jīng)濟增長總體強勁。

????這倒不是說違約永遠不可行。希臘的悲哀窘境說明每個經(jīng)濟體都是不同的,對于有些經(jīng)濟體,違約可能有益,有些則不是。希臘有很多問題,違約不可能是最佳出路。正如柯克加德所指,愛爾蘭同樣負債累累,但在愛爾蘭銀行業(yè)承擔過多高風險貸款前,愛爾蘭經(jīng)濟非常健康;而希臘的問題則是幾十年來征稅不力、退休年齡門檻低及其他不良政策的產(chǎn)物。

????“他們需要全面改革整個經(jīng)濟,而愛爾蘭……只需改革銀行體系,恢復財力,籌措更多財政收入,”他說。

????毋庸諱言,更重要的問題是希臘違約對歐洲和全球其他地區(qū)意味著什么。違約不僅會嚴重影響希臘自身經(jīng)濟,而且很可能導致市場擔憂西班牙、葡萄牙和意大利等歐元區(qū)周邊國家也可能違約?!緟⒁?a title="" target="_blank">《意大利會步希臘后塵嗎?》 As Greece goes, so goes Italy?】

????不管怎么看,違約絕非終南捷徑。

????This week, all eyes are (still) on Greece's debt crisis. The country edges toward a possible default if the government fails to pass an austerity plan that asks citizens to make due with $111 billion worth of budget cuts and asset sales as part of last year's multi-billion euro rescue package.

????Amid the ongoing saga marked by union strikes against the unpopular measures, some have taken the contrarians' view that defaulting might not be so bad for Greece. They point to places like Argentina and Russia, which defaulted and briefly struggled before emerging from their economic ruts unexpectedly well.

????This might put Greeks a little more at ease, but hardly for the right reasons.

????In 2001, Argentina defaulted on $81.8 billion of sovereign debt following months of turmoil in the country's banking system. GDP dropped by 10.9% that year, and the country was locked out of the credit markets. Despite financing challenges, its economy recovered, growing by more than 8% a year since 2003. And Argentina's resilience has led some to hint that Greece could actually follow some of Argentina's playbook.

????"The basic point is that Argentina's economy has done extremely well following its default," writes Dean Baker, co-founder of Washington DC-based think tank Center for Economic and Policy Research. "It is difficult to see why anyone in Greece would not want to default in an instant if they thought Greece's economy would follow the same path as Argentina's economy has over the last 9 ? years."

????Argentina's road to recovery is hardly something Greece could follow, however. One big factor explaining its comeback includes an advantage Greece isn't so lucky to have: Agricultural exports. Whereas the engine driving Greece's economy relies mostly on services, selling agricultural products abroad helped Argentina ride through its downturn. It runs a trade surplus, helped especially by rising global prices for agricultural commodities. Prices for soybeans, of which Argentina is a major producer, have risen from $200 a ton in 2003 to about $500 a ton today.

????。

????Aside from tourism and shipping services, Greece actually exports very little and has next to no foreign direct investments. So even if Greece defaults, drops the euro and devalues its own currency, it's hard to see how Greece could export its way out of tough economic times.

????"Greece has none of these advantages and fundamentally has a structural growth problem that even a restructuring won't alleviate," says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, whose research includes European economies and reform.

????Similarly, Russia, which defaulted in 1998, is seeing better days. After a decade of steep declines, its economy is on the rebound driven also by higher commodity prices, especially oil. The Russian government has paid back foreign debts. Despite economic setbacks in 2009 amid the global financial crisis, growth has generally been robust throughout the 2000s.

????It's not that default is never the answer. What Greece's sad predicament underscores is that every economy is different and default could work better for some and not others. The problems in Greece are significant and it's unlikely that a default would be the best way out. Kirkegaard makes an interesting point: Whereas debt-ridden Ireland had a very healthy economy before its banks took on too many risky loans, Greece's problem is the product of decades of poor tax enforcement, corruption, low retirement ages and other bad policies.

????"They need to overhaul their entire economy, where Ireland …. merely has to reform its banking system and restore its fiscal finances to raise more revenue," he says.

????Needless to say, the bigger issue is what a Greek default could mean to the rest of Europe and the world at large. Not only could it be ugly for Greece's individual economy, but there's a real possibility that markets will think other peripheral euro-zone countries including Spain, Portugal and Italy, might default too. (See As Greece goes, so goes Italy?)

掃描二維碼下載財富APP
国产初高中生真实在线视频| 波多野42部无码喷潮| 国产久热精品无码激情在线| 中文字幕黄片免费电影| 99aiav国产精品视频| 久也在线中文字幕手机在线| 高潮喷吹精品无码视频一区| 亚洲AV成人精品一区二区三区| 乱女伦露脸对白在线播放| 在线视频免费观看爽爽爽| 鲁一鲁性爱视频播放| 亚洲午夜无码片在线观看影院猛| 夜鲁鲁鲁夜夜综合视频欧美| 久久综合亚洲鲁鲁五月天欧美 | 一区香蕉视频亚洲毛片免费一级| 国产在线午夜不卡精品影院| 最新中文字幕第一页| 国产福利电影一区二区三区| 亚洲欧美成人AⅤ在线专区| 日产亚洲一区二区三区| 婷婷色香五月综合缴缴清| 免费人妻av无码专区| 忘忧草在线影院www日本韩国| 无码专区国产无套粉嫩白浆内射| 惠民福利狂野欧美性猛交xxxx| 日本高清中文字幕免费一区二区| 777米奇色狠狠888俺也去乱| 国产精品无码一区免费看| 国产日韩欧美精品一二三四| 国精品无码一区二区三区在线蜜臀| 国产mv动漫精品一区二区三区| 日韩精品无码熟人妻我不卡| 日韩不卡一区二区三区| 国产va成人无码人在线观看天堂| 精品久久久久久久一区二区伦理| 波多野结衣一区二区免费视频| 一级做a爰片久久毛片美女| 少妇被又大又粗又爽毛片久久黑人| 亚洲精品欧美精品日韩精品| 亚洲风情亚aⅴ在线发布| 午夜精品A片一区二区 |