成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

最新文章

加載中,請稍候。。。

熱讀文章

加載中,請稍候。。。

當(dāng)期雜志
訂閱
雜志紙刊
網(wǎng)站
移動訂閱
--
--
--
善用數(shù)據(jù),為企業(yè)決策服務(wù)
 作者: Kishore S. Swaminathan    時間: 2011年04月22日    來源: 財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)
 位置:         
字體 [   ]        
打印        
發(fā)表評論        

我們對數(shù)據(jù)的依賴已差不多到了這樣的地步,即每個經(jīng)理都必須采用某種形式的數(shù)據(jù)來支持甚至是最日常性的企業(yè)決定。本文將講述如何用好數(shù)據(jù)。
轉(zhuǎn)貼到: 微信 新浪微博 關(guān)注騰訊微博 人人網(wǎng) 豆瓣

????幾個月前我收到了一份便函,要求我所在的埃森哲(Accenture)辦公室的員工們必須保持室內(nèi)整潔,接受定期檢查。碰巧我是一個喜歡整潔的人,但我希望知道是否有數(shù)據(jù)證明整潔的辦公室就能促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)效率的提高。

????毫不奇怪,我的提問沒有得到很好的回答,答復(fù)是“基肖爾,整潔的辦公室會給到訪的客戶留下更好的印象?!?/p>

????這聽起來有幾分道理,因此我繼續(xù)問,是否有數(shù)據(jù)支持這種觀點(diǎn),即在拜訪過我們整潔的辦公室后,客戶更可能購買我們的服務(wù)或?qū)ξ覀冇懈娴目捶āV链?,我似乎是在本?yīng)顯而易見的事情上浪費(fèi)人們的時間了,有幾位同事甚至建議我別再糾纏這個問題了。

????在當(dāng)今高度競爭的全球商務(wù)環(huán)境中,你應(yīng)該如何運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)來支持你的大小決定,正是企業(yè)應(yīng)該探討的話題。而且隨著商業(yè)分析理論的完善,沒有理由不基于充分的信息作決定,而且很多時候支持性數(shù)據(jù)完全可以隨手拈來。

????如今,你的企業(yè)可以輕松獲得關(guān)于客戶購買模式、自身供應(yīng)鏈內(nèi)商品動向等多年的數(shù)據(jù)。而且,你的雇員、你的客戶、你的競爭對手以及你競爭對手的雇員和客戶也都在談?wù)?,包括在博客和微博上提供對你的企業(yè)可能有用的信息。當(dāng)今的一些技術(shù)——如數(shù)據(jù)/文字挖掘和機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)——能幫助你對所有這些數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,而云計(jì)算也將信息研究規(guī)模提升到了可能幾年前還不可想象的水平。

????大多數(shù)企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人現(xiàn)在都要求重要決定必須要有經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)的支持。隨著分析理論的進(jìn)步,現(xiàn)在我們已差不多到了這樣的地步:即便是最日常的決定,各個層面的管理人士都必須問這樣一個問題,“我們認(rèn)為是這樣,還是我們知道是這樣?”

????越來越多的公司都在朝著這個方向轉(zhuǎn)變。他們必須要了解運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)為其決策和行動提供指導(dǎo)的潛在機(jī)會和挑戰(zhàn):

1. 謹(jǐn)防數(shù)據(jù)誤用

????分析理論是個強(qiáng)大的工具,借用蜘蛛俠的話,“能力越大,責(zé)任越大”(with great power comes great responsibility)。企業(yè)應(yīng)謹(jǐn)防三類常見的數(shù)據(jù)誤用。

????首先,擁有實(shí)時數(shù)據(jù)并不意味著你能夠或應(yīng)該做出實(shí)時決定。不同種類的數(shù)據(jù)有不同的時間尺度:例如,收銀機(jī)反映的是當(dāng)時的銷售額,但供應(yīng)鏈數(shù)據(jù)只能反映上次下單或上次訂單的運(yùn)輸派車。必須所有數(shù)據(jù)在手,才能做出好的決定,因此你的決策速度只能取決于最慢的因素。

????第二,分析理論能幫助你優(yōu)化企業(yè)流程,將冗余和低效降至最低。但企業(yè)流程不能過度優(yōu)化,否則可能導(dǎo)致犯錯余地為零。高度優(yōu)化的流程——如零庫存或保持極低的庫存,根據(jù)需求隨時補(bǔ)充——是非常脆弱的,因?yàn)榭赡艹霈F(xiàn)你無法控制的局面,而你的犯錯余地為零。

????最后,不要做無謂的決定。有好的數(shù)據(jù),并不意味著你總要據(jù)此做點(diǎn)什么決策。

2. 做好準(zhǔn)備,隨時應(yīng)對瞬息萬變的信息世界

????一個基于數(shù)據(jù)采取行動的公司能做出非常具體、精確的決定。事實(shí)上,你的決定可能基于一些細(xì)微之處,如“周日晚上在那些近期表現(xiàn)不錯的主場足球隊(duì)所在地區(qū)多備些啤酒”。但這樣的決定隨時可能調(diào)整,隨球隊(duì)的命運(yùn)而快速變化。

3. 解讀海量數(shù)據(jù)

????當(dāng)今企業(yè)擁有的信息已超過了他們所能利用或能采取行動的范圍,因?yàn)楹芏嗖煌男畔⑼际枪铝⒌?。未來的企業(yè)將需要花大量的時間和精力來整合它們擁有的有用信息。

????以醫(yī)藥公司為例,傳統(tǒng)上依賴臨床試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)確立新藥的功效和副作用。如果臨床試驗(yàn)沒有問題,他們就能宣稱對藥物的不良反應(yīng)不承擔(dān)法律或道德責(zé)任。但隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和社交媒體的出現(xiàn),如今他們必須監(jiān)控公共信息源,將這些信息與臨床數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合。當(dāng)一家公司出現(xiàn)問題時,我們將更多地聽到公司回應(yīng)以“我本該知道”,而不是“我不知道”或“我不可能早就知道”。

4. 不要迷失于信息汪洋

????如此多的數(shù)據(jù)可能很容易就會讓未來的企業(yè)經(jīng)理們誤入“拖延決策,直到完成所有數(shù)據(jù)分析”的陷阱,但完成所有數(shù)據(jù)分析可能是無法完成的任務(wù)。你應(yīng)該警惕陷入分析迷局的三個警示信號。

????首先,警惕管理層的“過擬合”傾向——統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)詞匯“過擬合”指的是一旦模式已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn),搜集更多數(shù)據(jù)的價(jià)值趨于下降。數(shù)據(jù)搜集是有代價(jià)的。不行動也是有代價(jià)的。一個具有數(shù)據(jù)頭腦的公司必須知道過擬合成本。

????第二,不要苦等不存在的數(shù)據(jù)。具有數(shù)據(jù)頭腦的公司知道信息差的存在,知道如何通過實(shí)驗(yàn)打破此類僵局。

????最后,要知道你的企業(yè)在行動時愿意承受何種水平風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果員工因?yàn)樾袆邮∷芴幜P多于不行動,大多數(shù)員工都會寧愿不行動,也不愿將事情搞得一團(tuán)糟。針對行動失敗和根本不行動建立健全的懲罰機(jī)制,能提供幫助。

5. 發(fā)揮直覺

????依賴數(shù)據(jù)并不意味著不需要直覺。是的,科學(xué)確實(shí)是以經(jīng)驗(yàn)為根據(jù),是理性的。但科學(xué)家們不是。大多數(shù)受人尊敬的科學(xué)家們都是在保持客觀性的同時,發(fā)揮創(chuàng)造力、直覺和冒險(xiǎn)精神。這為企業(yè)提供了一個良好的參照。

????未來基于分析決策的企業(yè)將明顯不同于今日的企業(yè)?;氐轿恼麻_始我描繪的那些干凈的辦公桌、效率、客戶以及是否有數(shù)據(jù)支持這樣一個日常性決定。就此案而言,無數(shù)據(jù)提供。但為防萬一,我還是將自己的辦公桌弄得比以前更整潔了一些。

????本文作者基肖爾?斯瓦米納坦(Kishore S. Swaminathan)是埃森哲的首席科學(xué)家,以及埃森哲技術(shù)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(Accenture Technology Labs)的系統(tǒng)集成研究全球總監(jiān)。

????A few months ago, I received a memo saying that employees in my facility at Accenture must keep their offices clean, subject to regular inspections. As it happens, I am fairly tidy, but I wanted to understand if there was any data to show that clean offices lead to higher productivity.

????Not surprisingly, my request was sidestepped, and I was told, "Kishore, clean offices leave better impressions with visiting customers."

????That sounded reasonable, so I asked if there was any data to show that our customers are more likely to buy our services or view us more favorably after visiting our clean offices. Now I was wasting people's time on what should be obvious, and a few colleagues even suggested that I move on.

????In today's highly competitive global business environment, how you should use data to support your decisions -- large and small -- is exactly the kind of conversation that organizations should be having. And with advances in business analytics, there is every reason to make well-informed decisions since supporting data is, in many cases, readily available at your fingertips.

????Your company now can easily gain access to several years of data about your customer's buying patterns and the movement of goods through your supply chain. And your employees, your customers, your competitors, as well as the employees and customers of your competitors are all talking, blogging and tweeting, providing potentially useful information for your business. Today's technologies -- such as data and text mining and machine learning -- allow you to analyze all this data, and cloud computing allows you to examine this information at a scale that was not possible just a few years ago.

????Most business leaders now demand empirical data to support important decisions. With advances in analytics, we are nearing the point where every executive at every level will have to subject even the most mundane business decision to the following question: "Do we think this is true, or do we know this is true?"

????As more organizations move in this direction, though, they ought to be aware of the potential opportunities and challenges that go along with using data to guide more of their decisions and actions:

1. Avoiding the misuse of data

????Analytics places tremendous power in the hands of its users, and to borrow from Spiderman, "with great power comes great responsibility." Organizations should watch for three common misuses of data.

????First, just because you have access to real-time data doesn't mean you can or should make real-time decisions. Different types of data have different time scales: for example, your cash register reflects your sales the moment they happen, but your supply chain data can only reflect the last time an order was placed or a truck carrying your order was dispatched. Best decisions are made with all the data at hand, so you can only make decisions as fast as your slowest moving event.

????Second, analytics enables you to optimize your business processes to minimize redundancies and inefficiencies. However, be careful not to overly optimize your business processes to the point that there is no room for error. Highly optimized processes -- just-in-time inventory or keeping a very small inventory and constantly replenishing it based on demand being an example -- are very fragile because circumstances beyond your control could arise, and there is little room for error.

????Finally, watch out for making decisions where none are needed. Having good data does not mean you always need to act on it.

2. Preparing for a rapidly changing information world

????A company that bases its actions on data can make very specific, fine-tuned decisions. In fact, your decisions can be based on subtleties such as "stock more beer on Sunday nights in locations where the home football team is on a winning streak." But these kinds of decisions are highly sensitive and can change as rapidly as the fortunes of a football team.

3. Making sense of a ton of data

????Today's enterprises have more information than they can use or act on because many difference pieces of information are often isolated from each other. The enterprise of the future will need to devote a lot of time and energy toward integrating the useful information it has.

????Pharmaceutical companies, for example, have traditionally relied on clinical trials data to establish the efficacy and side effects of drugs. If a problem didn't come up in clinical trials, they could claim legal or ethical immunity from adverse effects of their drugs. But with the advent of the Internet and social media, they must now monitor public sources and integrate that information with their clinical data. "I should have known" will be the new normal, replacing the "I did not know" or "I could not have known" response to a company's unexpected problems.

4. Avoiding paralysis by information overload

????With access to so much data, the business manager of the future could easily fall into a trap of putting off decisions until everything has been analyzed, which may never happen. Look out for three warning signs of analysis-paralysis.

????First, beware the managerial tendency to "over-fit the curve" -- a statistical term that refers to the diminishing value of gathering additional data once you find a pattern. Data collection has a price. Not taking action also has comes at a price. And a data savvy organization must understand the cost of over-fitting.

????Second, do not fall into the trap of waiting for data that just does not exist. Data savvy organizations understand information gaps and how experimentation can break these kinds of logjams.

????Finally, know what level of risk your organization is willing to tolerate when they take action. If you penalize employees more for failed action than for inaction, most employees will prefer to not take action rather than mess up. Having solid guidelines for how to treat failure versus not acting at all can help.

5. Intuition isn't dead

????Relying on data does not mean that there is no room for intuition. Yes, it is true that science is empirical and dispassionate. But scientists are not. Most respected scientists blend objectivity with creativity, instinct and risk taking. It's a good model for organizations.

????The enterprise of the future, based on analytical decision making, will be considerably different from today's enterprise. All of this goes back to that original scenario I painted about clean desks, efficiency, clients and whether there was any data to support a rather mundane policy decision. In this case, none was provided. But I keep my desk a littler cleaner just in case.

????Kishore S. Swaminathan is Accenture's chief scientist and the global director of Accenture Technology Labs' systems integration research.




相關(guān)稿件



更多




最佳評論

@關(guān)子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強(qiáng)弱,好領(lǐng)導(dǎo)就是循循善誘的人,不獨(dú)裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學(xué)者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關(guān)現(xiàn)象研究后得出的一個結(jié)論:在各種組織中,由于習(xí)慣于對在某個等級上稱職的人員進(jìn)行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應(yīng)該可以解釋為專注當(dāng)下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創(chuàng)造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法??赡芎笳呤歉鞔驜OSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


Copyright ? 2012財(cái)富出版社有限公司。 版權(quán)所有,未經(jīng)書面許可,任何機(jī)構(gòu)不得全部或部分轉(zhuǎn)載。
《財(cái)富》(中文版)及網(wǎng)站內(nèi)容的版權(quán)屬于時代公司(Time Inc.),并經(jīng)過時代公司許可由香港中詢有限公司出版和發(fā)布。
深入財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)

雜志

·   當(dāng)期雜志
·   申請雜志贈閱
·   特約???/font>
·   廣告商

活動

·   科技頭腦風(fēng)暴
·   2013財(cái)富全球論壇
·   財(cái)富CEO峰會

關(guān)于我們

·   公司介紹
·   訂閱查詢
·   版權(quán)聲明
·   隱私政策
·   廣告業(yè)務(wù)
·   合作伙伴
行業(yè)

·   能源
·   醫(yī)藥
·   航空和運(yùn)輸
·   傳媒與文化
·   工業(yè)與采礦
·   房地產(chǎn)
·   汽車
·   消費(fèi)品
·   金融
·   科技
頻道

·   管理
·   技術(shù)
·   商業(yè)
·   理財(cái)
·   職場
·   生活
·   視頻
·   博客

工具

·     微博
·     社區(qū)
·     RSS訂閱
內(nèi)容精華

·   500強(qiáng)
·   專欄
·   封面報(bào)道
·   創(chuàng)業(yè)
·   特寫
·   前沿
·   CEO訪談
博客

·   四不像
·   劉聰
·   東8時區(qū)
·   章勱聞
·   公司治理觀察
·   東山豹尉
·   山海看客
·   明心堂主
榜單

·   世界500強(qiáng)排行榜
·   中國500強(qiáng)排行榜
·   美國500強(qiáng)
·   最受贊賞的中國公司
·   中國5大適宜退休的城市
·   年度中國商人
·   50位商界女強(qiáng)人
·   100家增長最快的公司
·   40位40歲以下的商業(yè)精英
·   100家最適宜工作的公司
2020国产综合精品| 日韩在线一区二区三区观看| 国产A√精品区二区三区四区| 捆绑走绳虐乳调教小说| 精品国产乱码久久久久久郑州公司| 中文字字母乱码在线电影一区二区| 久久久久人妻一区精品性色AV| WWW夜片内射视频日韩精品成人| 国产在线观看你懂的网址视频| 日韩精品内射视频免费观看| 欧美一区二区在线观看免费网站| 人妻熟人中文字幕一区二区| 色婷婷久久综合中文久久蜜桃AV| 厨房里抱着岳丰满大屁股| 玩50岁四川熟女大白屁股直播国产精品久久久久久久久电影网| 色综合久久久无码中文字幕| 久久久WWW成人免费精品| 男人女人午夜视频免费| 国偷自产AV一区二区三区接| 日韩视频中文字幕精品| 久久精品视频免费播放| 精品一卡2卡三卡4卡乱码理论| 亚洲人成在线观看网站无码| 亚洲黄色电影在线视频| 国产乱子伦片免费观看中字| 国产乱人伦偷精品视频下| 人人妻人人澡人人爽人人精品| AV无码国产精品性色aⅴ| 伊伊人成亚洲综合人网香| 成人午夜亚洲精品无码网站| 少妇高潮一区二区三区99| 国产曰批全过程免费视频| 亚洲天堂国产成人在线黄色| 午夜亚洲AⅤ无码高潮片苍井空| 青椒午夜影院在线日本视频| 一级特黄AAA大片在线观看| 少妇被粗大的猛烈进出VA视频| 午夜亚洲国产理论片二级港台二级| 亚洲综合精品欧美在线一区二区| 久久综合九色欧美综合狠狠| 国产乱子伦三级在线播放|