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紐交所的未來:股東抉擇兩難
 作者: Cyrus Sanati    時間: 2011年04月18日    來源: 財富中文網(wǎng)
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納斯達克想牽手紐交所,而紐交所想牽手德意志交易所。這場三角戀短時間內(nèi)恐怕難以理清,甚至可能會變得更為糾結(jié)。
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????看來沒有什么能阻擋紐交所(New York Stock Exchange)與德意志交易所(Deutsche Bourse)合并的計劃——即便有人愿意出更高的價格。上周,紐交所董事會明確否決與納斯達克(Nasdaq)、洲際交易所(InterContinental Exchange)聯(lián)手的提議,等于是在其位于紐約市中心的交易廳內(nèi)豎起了“已售”牌。

????現(xiàn)在,阻止紐交所與德意志交易所合并的唯一希望只能來自紐交所的股東們,股東們已開始質(zhì)疑紐交所在這個問題上的毫不妥協(xié)。

????本來這看來也會是一宗不錯的買賣。在具有219年歷史的紐交所同意以100億美元售予德意志交易所后,納斯達克和洲際交易所半路殺出,給出了高出19%的收購價。但紐交所不予理會,拒絕向納斯達克財團開放賬目,斷然回絕了收購要約。

????一般情況下董事會都必須接受高出價,遵循所謂的“露華濃規(guī)則”,這項規(guī)則要求董事會在收購戰(zhàn)中接受最高出價。但紐交所與德意志交易所達成的交易是合并,而非出售。因此,即便德意志交易所在合并后的公司中將擁有60%的控股權(quán),但這宗交易被歸為“對等戰(zhàn)略合并”,而非收購。這意味著董事會無需要求德意志交易所上調(diào)報價,就可否決納斯達克/洲際交易所的出價。

????至此,納斯達克財團合乎邏輯的下一步舉動將是尋求惡意收購,努力讓一些友好的董事會成員進入紐交所董事會——在紐交所的年度股東大會上提交自己的董事名單,讓股東們投票, 令一場常規(guī)會議充滿變數(shù)。但納斯達克已錯過了在紐交所年度股東大會上提出董事名單的最后期限,本次年度股東大會將于本月底召開。紐交所的股東們也沒有能力召開特別股東大會來選舉董事會成員。這意味著納斯達克和洲際交易所將必須等到明年的年度股東大會才能試圖趕走紐交所的一些董事會成員——到時候可就太晚了,于事無補。

????據(jù)了解情況的一位人士透露,雖然此役艱難,但納斯達克和洲際交易所看來決心推進此項交易。畢竟,紐交所只有一個,錯過了就沒了。戰(zhàn)場將轉(zhuǎn)到紐交所大股東的辦公室里,雙方都將努力拉票。紐交所的股東們將于6月份對合并交易投票,因此雙方都有幾個月的時間可爭取支持者。只要有簡單多數(shù)票即可批準交易,因此紐交所需要就為何股東們應(yīng)接受一個較低的價格做出完美的解釋。

權(quán)衡報價

????與德意志交易所合并,能使紐交所將業(yè)務(wù)重心從傳統(tǒng)的股票交易和上市業(yè)務(wù)更多地轉(zhuǎn)向衍生品交易,后者被視為交易所領(lǐng)域的最后一個前沿。合并后的公司將在歐洲衍生品交易中具有實質(zhì)性壟斷地位,業(yè)務(wù)利潤率遠高于美國股票交易。

????另一方面,納斯達克/洲際交易所的交易提議事實上將把紐交所分拆為兩部分,由洲際交易所獲得紐交所美國衍生品業(yè)務(wù),而納斯達克獲得股票和上市業(yè)務(wù)。交易完成后,納斯達克將事實上完全控制美國的上市業(yè)務(wù),這也是一項高利潤率業(yè)務(wù)。

????紐交所宣稱,立即否決納斯達克出價的一個原因是反壟斷擔憂。但不是所有人都相信這種說法?!肮善苯灰啄壳案偁帢O為激烈,我認為沒有人能證明此交易涉嫌壟斷,” Tabb Group的分析師亞當?蘇斯曼表示。而且,與德意志交易所的合并也并非全無壟斷之虞。歐洲監(jiān)管部門可能會要求公司出售有價值的資產(chǎn),降低在高毛利衍生品市場的份額后,才會核準交易。因此,股東們需要做出決斷,一旦監(jiān)管部門介入,哪宗交易才最有機會實現(xiàn)價值。

????以首席執(zhí)行長鄧肯?尼德奧爾為首的紐交所管理層有很強的動力來推動與德意志交易所的合并。尼德奧爾將在合并后的公司中繼續(xù)擔任要職,并可能會在某個時候成為掌門人。而如果接受納斯達克的收購要約,尼德奧爾和他的團隊幾乎肯定會被趕出門。雖然補償金不低——高管們離開能獲得9,500萬美元的補償。擁戴現(xiàn)有管理團隊的股東們會傾向于與德意志銀行合并,而那些對此不怎么在意的股東們將傾向于被納斯達克/洲際交易所收購。

????但最重要的可能還是股東究竟是長期持有,還是短線持有。篤信衍生品交易未來將大行其道的長期持有者可能會支持與德意志銀行合并。而那些希望撈一把就走的投資者將支持與納斯達克/洲際交易所交易。

????雖然德意志銀行已表示不會抬高出價,但可能不得不自食其言,未來幾周或調(diào)高出價,以便贏得一些大型機構(gòu)股東。第一次攤牌將是4月28日的紐交所年度股東大會。如果股東們紛紛出言反對,董事會的決心可能會有所動搖,迫使他們重新審視納斯達克的出價或敦促德國伙伴抬高些價碼。

????There seems to be little stopping the New York Stock Exchange in going ahead with its planned merger with Deutsche Bourse -- not even the promise of more money. The NYSE board's unequivocal rejection this week of an alternate ties up with the Nasdaq and the InterContinental Exchange has put a virtual "SOLD" sign on the exchange floor in downtown New York.

????The only hope in blocking this merger now would have to come from the NYSE shareholders, who have just now started to raise concerns about the NYSE's intransigence on the matter.

????It seems like it would have been an easy sell. Rival exchanges Nasdaq and ICE came together to bid for the NYSE after the 219-year-old exchange agreed to be sold to Deutsche Bourse for $10 billion. The Nasdaq and ICE offered a hefty 19% premium. But the NYSE was not having it. It refused to open its books to the Nasdaq consortium and rejected its offer outright.

????Under normal circumstances, the board would be forced to take the higher offer, evoking the board's so-called "Revlon duties," which require it to accept the highest bidder in any takeover fight. But the Deutsche Bourse deal has been structured in a way that makes it a merger as opposed to a sale. So even though the Deutsche Bourse would have a 60% controlling stake in the combined company, the deal has been classified as a "strategic merger of equals" and not a takeover. That means the board could reject the Nasdaq/ICE bid without requiring Deutsche Bourse to raise its offer.

????The next logical step for the Nasdaq (NDAQ) group at this point would be to go hostile and try to get some friendly board members elected to the NYSE's board. It would run a slate of its own board members at the NYSE's (NYX) annual meeting and let the shareholders vote, raising the drama at what is usually a very routine meeting. But the Nasdaq missed the deadline to put up its own slate of directors at the annual meeting, which is scheduled for the end of this month. NYSE shareholders also lack the ability to call special meetings for board members. That means that the Nasdaq and ICE would have to wait until next year's annual meeting to try and oust some of the NYSE's board members -- way too late to make any difference.

????Despite the uphill battle, the Nasdaq and ICE appear committed to pushing forward with this deal, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. After all, there is only one NYSE, so this is literally a chance of a lifetime. The battleground would now take place in the offices of the NYSE's largest shareholders, with both sides jockeying for votes. The shareholders will vote on the merger in June, giving both sides just a couple of months to rally their supporters. Only a simple majority is needed, so the NYSE will need to make an airtight case in explaining why shareholders should take a lower price.

Weighing the offers

????The Deutsche Bourse deal would move the company away from its traditional equity trading and listings business and focus more on derivatives trading, which is seen as the last frontier in the exchange space. The combined company would hold a virtual monopoly in European derivatives trading, which is a much higher margin business than equity trading in the US.

????On the flip side, the Nasdaq/ICE deal would effectively split the NYSE into two parts, with ICE taking the NYSE's US derivatives unit and the Nasdaq taking its equity unit and listings business. That deal would see the Nasdaq in control of virtually all US listings, which is also a high margin business.

????The NYSE claimed that one of the reasons why it rejected the Nasdaq bid out of hand was due to antitrust concerns. But not everyone is buying that argument. "In equity trading there is so much competition out there that I don't think there is anyone who can argue antitrust concerns on that front," says Adam Sussman, an analyst at the Tabb Group.

????And the Deutsche Bourse deal is not exactly risk-free on the antitrust front, either. European regulators could force the company to sell off valuable assets and decrease its exposure to the lucrative derivatives space in order to approve the deal. Shareholders will therefore need to make a bet on which deal has the best chance of reaping value once the regulators have their say.

????The NYSE management team, lead by chief executive Duncan Niederauer, has a strong incentive to push for the Deutsche Bourse deal. He would retain a big role in the combined company and could have the chance to lead it at some point. Under a deal with Nasdaq, Niederauer and his lieutenants would almost certainly be shown the door. Although not poor -- the top execs could walk away with $95 million. Shareholders that like the current management team would be more inclined to vote for the Deutsche Bourse deal, while those who are more lukewarm on it would lean toward the Nasdaq/ICE deal.

????But the biggest factor will probably be whether the shareholders are long-term or short-term holders of the stock. Those that are long-term holders and who buy into the idea that derivatives are the future, will probably support the Deutsche Bourse deal. Those that want to grab the money and run will side with the Nasdaq/ICE deal.

????Although the Deutsche Bourse has said it will not raise its price, it may have to eat its words and do so anyway in the next few weeks in order to win over some large institutional shareholders. The first showdown will be on April 28th when shareholders meet up for the NYSE's annual meeting. A rowdy reception for the board could shake its resolve, forcing them to either take another look at the Nasdaq offer or push its new German partners to pony up some more dough.




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@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關(guān)現(xiàn)象研究后得出的一個結(jié)論:在各種組織中,由于習慣于對在某個等級上稱職的人員進行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應(yīng)該可以解釋為專注當下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創(chuàng)造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法??赡芎笳呤歉鞔驜OSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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