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????今年的油價(jià)上漲使國(guó)際貨幣基金組織不得不面對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)極度緊張的事實(shí)。

????國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）本周一宣布，預(yù)計(jì)今年全球平均油價(jià)將為107美元/桶，明年為108美元/桶。最新預(yù)測(cè)比上次預(yù)測(cè)高出了20%，原因是2010年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)超預(yù)期，而供應(yīng)響應(yīng)滯后。

????即便是在Facebook上，也沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)過(guò)這樣的趨勢(shì)

????國(guó)際貨幣基金組織在最新發(fā)布的《全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景》（World Economic Outlook）半年度報(bào)告相關(guān)章節(jié)中指出，去年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)了3.4%。這是自2004年以來(lái)最快的增速，比國(guó)際貨幣基金組織2010年初的預(yù)期快了一倍。

????與此同時(shí)，原油供應(yīng)“對(duì)需求持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)反應(yīng)遲緩，主要反映了歐佩克（OPEC）的政策立場(chǎng)，”該組織指出。

????國(guó)際貨幣基金組織認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前的高油價(jià)若維持現(xiàn)有水平，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)應(yīng)僅有“輕微影響”。但承認(rèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是如果供應(yīng)中斷，油價(jià)上漲可能超預(yù)期。

????近幾個(gè)月，我們已看到過(guò)有幾次這樣的情況了，油價(jià)上漲顯然超乎該組織的預(yù)料。去年秋季國(guó)際貨幣基金組織曾預(yù)計(jì)今年平均油價(jià)將為78美元。在埃及政治動(dòng)蕩引發(fā)年初油價(jià)大漲后，1月份該組織將預(yù)期調(diào)高到了89美元。

????但如今，油價(jià)在紐約交易中報(bào)112美元，在倫敦交易中報(bào)126美元，即便中東緊張局勢(shì)和美國(guó)汽油需求已有所緩解。同時(shí)，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織警告稱，如果供應(yīng)中斷導(dǎo)致油價(jià)新一輪上漲，可能摧毀脆弱的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇態(tài)勢(shì)。

????為此，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行了壓力測(cè)試，分析油價(jià)為150美元/桶時(shí)可能出現(xiàn)的情況。2008年夏季油價(jià)飆升至147美元，被普遍視為是對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的一大打擊，但很難確切說(shuō)明打擊有多大，因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)金融系統(tǒng)在同一時(shí)間也陷入了危機(jī)。

????國(guó)際貨幣基金組織稱，如果2011年油價(jià)漲到那樣的高位，隨后一年回落，將導(dǎo)致發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體增速放緩0.75個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，該組織對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)期是2.5%。對(duì)其他地區(qū)的影響可能有所不同，亞洲和拉美的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速可能放緩，而中東由于石油出口收入增加，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可能加快。

????但這類似于最佳或最差情景?！叭绻凸?yīng)中斷狀況持續(xù)，全球的產(chǎn)值損失將會(huì)大得多，”國(guó)際貨幣基金組織警告稱。

????該組織指出了可能導(dǎo)致此類供應(yīng)中斷的一種情況，即世界其他地區(qū)可能高估了以沙特阿拉伯為首的歐佩克成員國(guó)提高產(chǎn)量、滿足全球需求增長(zhǎng)的能力。如果歐佩克的閑置產(chǎn)能低于我們的預(yù)期，那么任何時(shí)候任何一個(gè)產(chǎn)油國(guó)出現(xiàn)變故，油價(jià)飆升的可能性將更大。

????“2010年12月-2011年1月當(dāng)油價(jià)逼近100美元/桶關(guān)口時(shí)，歐佩克增加了原油產(chǎn)量——這表明歐佩克成員國(guó)仍對(duì)油價(jià)的加速上漲有擔(dān)憂?！眹?guó)際貨幣基金組織寫(xiě)道，“不管怎樣，油價(jià)上行突破70-80美元區(qū)間后歐佩克未做出有力的增產(chǎn)反應(yīng)，已令市場(chǎng)對(duì)歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)從不言明的目標(biāo)價(jià)格區(qū)間有了些許不確定。”

????事實(shí)上，要說(shuō)市場(chǎng)對(duì)于歐佩克的意圖有些不確定，可能還說(shuō)輕了，更別提對(duì)其能力的不確定了。

????This year's oil price spike has dragged the IMF kicking and screaming into the world of overstressed energy markets.

????The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it expects the global oil price to average $107 a barrel this year and $108 next. That's 20% above its previous forecast, thanks to stronger-than-expected global petroleum growth in 2010 and a less than enthusiastic supply response.

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????Global oil demand rose 3.4% last year, the IMF said in the latest release of chapters from its semiannual World Economic Outlook report. That's the fastest pace since 2004 and double the rate IMF forecasters projected at the start of 2010.

????Meanwhile, the supply of crude oil "is responding sluggishly to the ongoing pickup in demand, largely reflecting the policy stance of OPEC," the IMF said.

????The IMF said it believes the high prices, if sustained at current levels, should have only a "mild effect" on global economic growth. But it conceded that "the key downside risk to growth relates to the potential for oil prices to surprise further on the upside because of supply disruptions."

????We have seen a few of those in recent months, to the IMF's apparent surprise. The agency predicted last fall that the oil price would average $78 this year. After an early year spike spurred by the political meltdown in Egypt, it raised that forecast to $89 in January.

????But now, oil is trading at $112 in New York and $126 in London, even as Middle East anxiety recedes -- along with U.S. gasoline demand. And the IMF is warning that another supply shock-driven surge in prices could undo a fragile global recovery.

????To that end, the IMF ran a stress test on the global economy to determine how it might deal with oil at $150 a barrel. The summer spike to $147 in 2008 is widely seen as having dealt a blow to economic activity, though it's hard to say for sure how big a hit that was since the financial system was coming undone at the same time.

????The IMF said a surge to that level in 2011, with prices falling back next year, could wipe 0.75 percentage point off its forecast for economic growth in advanced economies, which it currently sees expanding 2.5% this year. The impact would be varied elsewhere, with Asia and Latin America slowing but the Middle East gaining as oil export revenue rose.

????That is sort of a best-case worst-case scenario, however. "Global output losses would be much larger in the event of a permanent shock to oil supply," the IMF warns.

????The IMF hints at one possible source of such a disruption – the prospect that the rest of the world is overestimating the capacity of OPEC nations led by Saudi Arabia to boost production to meet growing global demand. If OPEC's spare production cushion is thinner than we think, prices are going to be much more apt to surge any time we see a flare-up in an oil-producing country.

????"The acceleration in OPEC crude oil production in December 2010 and January 2011 — when oil prices were closing in on the $100 a barrel threshold — suggests that OPEC members remain concerned about accelerated price increases," the IMF writes. "Nevertheless, the absence of an elastic production response when prices moved beyond the $70–$80 range has led to some uncertainty in markets about OPEC producers' implicit price targets."

????To say there's some uncertainty over OPEC's intentions, let alone its capabilities, is something of an understatement.