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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

蘋果真的會(huì)收購(gòu)Beats嗎

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2014年05月13日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
蘋果計(jì)劃以30億美元收購(gòu)Beats的傳聞上周末開始達(dá)到頂點(diǎn),但包括吉恩?蒙斯特在內(nèi)的多位資深分析師直言,這筆傳說中的收購(gòu)?fù)耆环咸O果一貫的套路,“很難看出它背后的合理性?!?

????蘋果公司收購(gòu)Beats的傳聞?wù)紦?jù)了科技博客聚合網(wǎng)上周五上午的頭條位置。

????蘋果公司(Apple)真的會(huì)像《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times)上周四晚間報(bào)道的那樣,以32億美元的價(jià)格收購(gòu)Beats電子公司(Beats Electronics)嗎?

????科技博客聚合網(wǎng)(Techmeme)的報(bào)道似乎是這樣認(rèn)為的。

????截至上周五上午,70多家媒體紛紛節(jié)選、放大了這則未經(jīng)證實(shí)的報(bào)道稱,音樂制作人吉米?艾歐文和嘻哈明星Dr Dre聯(lián)合創(chuàng)辦的耳機(jī)制造商和流音樂流服務(wù)公司Beats有望成為蘋果公司歷史上最大的收購(gòu)對(duì)象。

????《連線》雜志(Wired)把它稱為蘋果“自iPad以來的最佳創(chuàng)意”。

????但投行派杰公司(Piper Jaffray)的吉恩?蒙斯特對(duì)此持懷疑態(tài)度。

????“我們很難看出這筆收購(gòu)背后的合理性,”他在上周四晚間給客戶的文件中表示?!爱?dāng)然,Beats將把世界一流的音樂品牌帶入蘋果,但是蘋果早已擁有一流的品牌,而且從未為了品牌而收購(gòu)品牌(例如,蘋果旗下沒有非蘋果子品牌)。另外,Beats的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)是否會(huì)給這筆收購(gòu)帶來比品牌更能站得住腳的理由,我們也還不得而知?!?/p>

????Is Apple (AAPL) really going to buy Beats Electronics for $3.2 billion, as reported Thursday evening by theFinancial Times?

????The main body of the tech press seems to think so.

????By Friday morning, more than70 publications had picked up and amplified the unconfirmed report that the largest acquisition in Apple's history might be the headphone maker and music-streaming service founded by music producer Jimmy Iovine and hip-hop star Dr Dre.

????Wired called it Apple's "Best Idea Since the iPad."

????Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, for one, is skeptical.

????"We are struggling to see the rationale behind this move," he wrote in a note to clients Thursday evening. "Beats would of course bring a world class brand in music to Apple, but Apple already has a world class brand and has never acquired a brand for a brand's sake (i.e., there are no non-Apple sub-brands under the company umbrella). Separately, we are not aware of any intellectual property within Beats that would drive the acquisition justification beyond the brand."

????Beats公司生產(chǎn)的揚(yáng)聲器座

????雖然蒙斯特的觀點(diǎn)僅代表少數(shù)意見,但是并不是只有他一個(gè)人這么認(rèn)為。

????“希望這不是真的,”蘋果信息博客 《MacObserver》的布賴恩?沙芬寫道,他發(fā)牢騷說Beats的耳機(jī)“只會(huì)產(chǎn)生大量的噪音干擾,會(huì)把任何音樂變得混亂不堪?!?/p>

????雖然筆者目前沒有內(nèi)部消息,甚至不清楚Beats音樂訂閱者的數(shù)量,筆者同意《時(shí)代》雜志(Time)作家哈里?麥克恩的觀點(diǎn)。截至上周日,他用七種方式仔細(xì)研究了這次收購(gòu),還在文章末尾處發(fā)出了終極警告:

????或者,這件事根本不會(huì)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。如果果真如此,請(qǐng)忘記這篇文章,這樣我才能再撰文解釋這種計(jì)劃的荒謬和根本不值得考慮的原因。

????最新消息1:在一篇巧妙命名為Beats Me的博文中,美國(guó)宏橋信托投資集團(tuán)(BTIG)的沃爾特?皮斯基客觀地看待這個(gè)傳聞中的交易:

????過去幾十年來,蘋果收購(gòu)案金額從未超過4億美元,而此次價(jià)格達(dá)30億美元的收購(gòu),打破了原有的收購(gòu)模式。收購(gòu)案公布后,必定會(huì)產(chǎn)生需要由管理層甚至是董事會(huì)解決的問題。讓我來稍微緩和一下這種夸張的措辭。30億美元尚不足蘋果現(xiàn)金的2%,也不足年自由現(xiàn)金流量的10%。所以,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)角度來看,這筆收購(gòu)不會(huì)給蘋果的業(yè)績(jī)帶來重大影響,但是收購(gòu)模式的改變是問題產(chǎn)生的原因所在。

????最新消息2:市場(chǎng)調(diào)研公司Forrester分析師詹姆斯?麥奎維給出了另一種觀點(diǎn):

????鑒于蘋果歷來對(duì)自己龐大的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)寶庫(kù)所持的態(tài)度異常謹(jǐn)慎,如果蘋果放棄收購(gòu)計(jì)劃,特別是在昨晚的“試探氣球”(如果確實(shí)如此)結(jié)果如此糟糕的情況下,那也是意料之中的事。但是讓我們來考慮這樣一個(gè)事實(shí):蘋果不是一家愚蠢的公司。誠(chéng)然,蘋果可以出錯(cuò)(例如,Apple Ping),但是即使摔倒,它也通常是摔倒在值得攀登的高峰的半路上。由此,我得出了下面這個(gè)幻想:如果在收購(gòu)Beats的過程中,蘋果知道和掌握我們所不了解的情況,結(jié)果會(huì)怎樣呢?果真如此,蘋果會(huì)怎么做?(他按照所謂的“合理性降序排列、轟動(dòng)性性升序排列”,給出了三種可能。)請(qǐng)參閱《相信蘋果》(Having Faith in Apple)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:?jiǎn)虡潇o/汪皓

????Munster's is a minority opinion, but he's not entirely on his own.

????"Please let it be false," wrote The MacObserver's Bryan Chaffin, who complains that Beats headphones "can turn any music into a muddy romp through a swampy bottom land of mush."

????Having no inside knowledge whatsoever -- not even the number of Beats Music subscribers -- I'm with Time's Harry McCracken. After examining the deal seven ways to Sunday, he ends his piece with the ultimate caveat:

????Or maybe this isn't happening at all. If it doesn't, kindly forget that I wrote this story, so that I can write another one explaining why the notion was absurd and unworthy of contemplation in the first place.

????UPDATE 1: In a blog post cleverly titled Beats Me, BTIG's Walter Piecyk puts the rumored deal in perspective:

????A $3 billion purchase by Apple following decades of acquisitions that haven't topped $400 million is a change in pattern that will justifiably generate some questions for management and perhaps the Board of Directors to address if announced. Let me tone down that hyperbole a bit. $3 billion is less than 2% of the company's cash and less than 10% its annual free cash flow. So in the grand scheme of things, it's not a deal that is going to have a material impact on results but the change in pattern is what drives the questions.

????UPDATE 2: Another perspective, this one from Forrester's James McQuivey:

????Given Apple's historical tight-fistedness with the contents of its huge treasure chest, it wouldn't be surprising if the company backed away, especially after last night's trial balloon (if it was such) sputtered so badly. But let's consider this fact: Apple is not a stupid company. Sure, Apple can make mistakes (Apple Ping, anyone?) but when it trips over itself, it usually does so on the way up a hill worth climbing. Which leads me to this flight of fancy: What if, in buying Beats, Apple knows something that we do not, Apple sees something that we do not? If true, what could it be? [He goes on to offer three possibilities, in what he calls "descending order of plausibility, but ascending order of awesomeness."] See Having Faith in Apple.

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