刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)：三個(gè)政府，一個(gè)思路
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????美國(guó)聯(lián)邦政府2009年推出的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案是否有效?值此方案推出五周年之際，兩黨的爭(zhēng)論如火如荼，但注定不會(huì)有什么結(jié)果。如果我們將這些爭(zhēng)論放到一邊，留意一下近期其他的一些報(bào)道，或許能了解到一些有用的信息，看清到底什么才能真正推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。 ????華盛頓正在進(jìn)行的爭(zhēng)論沒有意義，哪一方都不會(huì)做出讓步。共和黨人說，刺激方案（包括政府支出和減稅）顯然不起作用，實(shí)施滿五年后就業(yè)的美國(guó)人數(shù)量比刺激政策實(shí)施前還要低。民主黨人說，政策效果顯而易見，美國(guó)GDP的恢復(fù)速度快于其他很多同一時(shí)期陷入衰退的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。哪一方都不肯承認(rèn)對(duì)方的說法哪怕有一丁點(diǎn)的道理。 ????值得一提的是，另外三個(gè)政府也面臨同樣的挑戰(zhàn)——正在努力刺激亟需幫助的經(jīng)濟(jì)。迄今為止，它們做得還不錯(cuò)： ????“法國(guó)必須恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)力，一刻也不能等，”法國(guó)總統(tǒng)弗朗西斯?奧朗德上個(gè)月曾經(jīng)這樣表示。這是自然。法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)在歐洲墊底，表現(xiàn)如此之差，導(dǎo)致奧朗德已成為二戰(zhàn)以來支持率最低的法國(guó)總統(tǒng)。不過，這位曾在總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選中承諾對(duì)百萬富翁加稅的社會(huì)黨人如今正在提議為企業(yè)減稅300億歐元。他力稱，這個(gè)舉措將推動(dòng)法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。 ????“什么都比不過零稅率，”紐約州州長(zhǎng)安德魯?庫莫上月提議減稅20億美元為該州吸引和留住更多企業(yè)。一個(gè)兩黨委員會(huì)此前建議將制造企業(yè)的稅率從目前的5.9%減半。但為什么只是減半？身為共和黨人的庫莫希望完全取消這項(xiàng)稅，也就是降到不能再降的零，至少是針對(duì)紐約市以北的制造企業(yè)，因?yàn)榻陙恚@些企業(yè)一直在撤離紐約州。 ????“我們認(rèn)為，近幾十年來征收較高且不斷增長(zhǎng)的個(gè)人和企業(yè)稅率，導(dǎo)致了人口流失，稅基萎縮以及總體經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑。”底特律剛剛公布的退出破產(chǎn)保護(hù)計(jì)劃也有這樣的表述。這個(gè)計(jì)劃在談到出路時(shí)同樣直率：“我們相信，降低一些所得稅和物業(yè)稅稅率 ...對(duì)于促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)和擴(kuò)大總稅基至關(guān)重要?！泵鎸?duì)破產(chǎn)后處處需要錢的窘境，底特律的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們希望的是減稅，而不是加稅。 ????目的顯而易見，經(jīng)驗(yàn)再明確不過。當(dāng)最終不得不面對(duì)無可逃避的經(jīng)濟(jì)困境時(shí)，政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們意識(shí)到企業(yè)不是挖之不盡的礦坑，而是需要培育的、活生生的植物。但愿他們能更加經(jīng)常地意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)，而不是只有等到大難臨頭的時(shí)候才想起來。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ???? |
????French president Fran?ois Hollande of the Socialist Party is now pushing a tax cut for business. ????The flourishing debate over the effectiveness of Washington's 2009 stimulus package, occasioned by the law's fifth anniversary, will not accomplish a single thing. But if we keep it in mind as we notice a few other news stories playing out just now, we might learn something useful about what really gets an economy going. ????The debate as conducted in Washington is pointless because neither side will budge from its predictable position. Republicans say the stimulus -- a mix of government spending and tax cuts -- obviously didn't work because, after five years, fewer Americans are employed than were employed when the stimulus was enacted. Democrats say it obviously worked because GDP recovered faster in the U.S. than it did in many other economies that were in recession at the same time. Neither side will ever acknowledge that the other might have a point. ????What's actually useful is to note what three other governments that are up against the same challenge -- trying to stimulate an economy that badly needs help -- are doing right now: ????"It is imperative that France restores the power of its economy. There is no time to lose," said President Fran?ois Hollande last month. That's for sure. France's economy is one of Europe's weakest, performing so badly that Hollande's approval rating is the lowest of any French president's since World War II. But this Socialist who campaigned for office promising tax increases on millionaires now proposes a 30-billion-euro tax cut for business. That, he argues forcefully, is what will make the economy grow. ????"You can't beat zero," said New York Governor Andrew Cuomo last month, proposing $2 billion of tax relief in an attempt to attract and keep more business in the state. A bipartisan commission had recommended cutting the tax rate on manufacturers, currently 5.9%, by about half. But why take half measures? Cuomo, a Democrat, wants to eliminate the tax entirely -- that is, make it an unbeatable zero -- at least for manufacturers north of New York City, who have been leaving the state for years. ????"The City believes that the imposition of comparatively high and ever-increasing individual and corporate tax rates, in recent decades, has contributed to the City's population loss, dwindling tax base, and overall economic decline." So states Detroit's just-released plan for exiting bankruptcy. The plan is equally blunt about the solution: "The City believes that lowering selected income and property tax rates ... is critical to ... fostering job growth and expanding the overall tax base." Faced with the dollars-and-cents demands of bankruptcy, Detroit's leaders want to tax less, not more. ????The theme is obvious, and the lesson is clear. When finally forced to confront inescapable economic trouble, government leaders realize that business is not a pit to be mined but a living plant to be nurtured. If only they could more often realize it before calamity looms. |
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