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專(zhuān)欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

蘋(píng)果分析師熱議三星Galaxy S4

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年03月19日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周?chē)且黄艾F(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶(hù)中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿(mǎn)缽滿(mǎn)。不過(guò),Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
三星Galaxy S4粉墨登場(chǎng),來(lái)勢(shì)洶洶。但大多數(shù)蘋(píng)果分析師都認(rèn)為,這款產(chǎn)品只能稱(chēng)得上是改進(jìn),而不能說(shuō)是革命性的突破。它還不足以改變目前智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局,蘋(píng)果仍將占據(jù)這個(gè)市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)地位。

????評(píng)論界對(duì)三星(Samsung)Galaxy S4的一致評(píng)價(jià)是,這只能算是進(jìn)步,而非革命性的飛躍。不過(guò),三星新款手機(jī)對(duì)蘋(píng)果(Apple)意味著什么,各方的觀點(diǎn)則出現(xiàn)了分歧。

????派杰投資銀行(Piper Jaffray)吉恩?蒙斯特:Galaxy S4的確有所進(jìn)步,但同時(shí),在2013年,iPhone在高端市場(chǎng)仍將占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。“Galaxy S4大部分都是對(duì)S3的一次改進(jìn),包括更大的屏幕(對(duì)角線尺寸增大了4%),更出色的攝像頭與處理器,以及軟件更新等,機(jī)身和外殼卻基本沒(méi)有變化。我們認(rèn)為,部分軟件功能確實(shí)非常特別,包括傾斜滾屏功能、基于面部識(shí)別技術(shù)的視頻暫停功能,以及基于手勢(shì)的互動(dòng)等,但相對(duì)于Siri之于iPhone 4S的意義,或者Google Now語(yǔ)音服務(wù)之于安卓(Android)的意義,這些軟件上的更新就遜色了不少……雖然Galaxy S4已經(jīng)發(fā)布,而且宣傳工作也在如火如荼地進(jìn)行之中,但我們依然相信,2013年,蘋(píng)果在高端智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的份額不會(huì)低于40%?!?/p>

????杰弗瑞集團(tuán)(Jefferies)彼得?米塞克:軟件功能成主角?!癝4的硬件與預(yù)期基本一致,與iPhone 5相當(dāng)。設(shè)計(jì)方面和之前相比沒(méi)有太大變化,尺寸也僅從4.8英寸增加到5英寸?!比侵饕獙?zhuān)注的是軟件創(chuàng)新與界面輸入,例如手勢(shì)控制和智能滾動(dòng)/暫停等。雖然手機(jī)實(shí)測(cè)體驗(yàn)總體上令我們印象深刻,但這些軟件功能在實(shí)際使用中的表現(xiàn)到底會(huì)怎么樣,或者說(shuō)這些功能是否真的實(shí)用,我們會(huì)拭目以待。S4的推出對(duì)蘋(píng)果意味著什么?我們相信,S4肯定會(huì)有相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)的銷(xiāo)量,而且會(huì)逐漸給蘋(píng)果帶來(lái)麻煩。但在我們看來(lái),S4還算不上一次革命性的飛躍。除了大屏幕尺寸之外——雖然我們也認(rèn)為這一點(diǎn)使三星在面對(duì)蘋(píng)果時(shí)更具優(yōu)勢(shì),我們認(rèn)為,S4的許多功能很容易就能復(fù)制。此外,Galaxy用戶(hù)抱怨最多的是,他們并不喜歡三星的定制軟件,尤其是定制軟件的表現(xiàn)完全比不上原生安卓系統(tǒng)中的軟件。

????野村證券(Nomura)斯圖爾特?杰弗里:Galaxy S4將幫助三星反超蘋(píng)果。“雖然S4相比S3有了明顯改進(jìn),但仍有各種聲音認(rèn)為S4只是一種進(jìn)步,算不上革命性的飛躍。盡管如此,我們認(rèn)為S4將幫助三星在2013年的高端智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)反超蘋(píng)果。我們最初的觀點(diǎn)包括:?派生形式因素——S4的外觀與S3過(guò)于相似。?三星使用塑料作為主要基底材料。?一些有趣的新功能,雖然部分功能僅能與其他S4手機(jī)或新三星電視配合使用,限制了這些功能的吸引力。?高端Galaxy S4與Note每季度的銷(xiāo)量似乎完全有可能達(dá)到3,500萬(wàn)至4,000萬(wàn)臺(tái),必將使三星在高端市場(chǎng)反超蘋(píng)果?!?/p>

????巴克萊銀行(Barclays)本?瑞茲:預(yù)計(jì)iPhone必將面臨更激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)?!霸谂c蘋(píng)果的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)方面,Galaxy S4基本符合預(yù)期——不過(guò),蘋(píng)果不必緊張(個(gè)別LTE版本將于今年晚些時(shí)候才能上市)。但正如我們?cè)诮诘囊环輬?bào)告中所述,我們相信三星的發(fā)展勢(shì)頭會(huì)成為讓蘋(píng)果頭疼的主要問(wèn)題。因此,我們希望看到蘋(píng)果今年大規(guī)模擴(kuò)大iPhone市場(chǎng),同時(shí)改善平臺(tái)。但最近,蘋(píng)果似乎一直在保持沉默,我們或許要等到第三季度,才能看到蘋(píng)果在調(diào)整定價(jià)之外,是否還會(huì)推出其他措施,對(duì)三星予以還擊?!?/p>

????Evolutionary, not revolutionary, was the general consensus. As for what Samsung's new phone means for Apple (AAPL), the jury was split.

????Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: Galaxy S4 Evolutionary, iPhone To Essentially Maintain High End Share In CY13. "The Galaxy S4 appears to be largely an incremental update to the S3 including a slightly larger screen (4% larger on diagonal), better camera and processor, and updated software, but largely the same body style and casing. We believe some of the software features are unique, including the tilt to scroll, video pausing based on facial recognition, and hand gesture based interactions, but view these software improvements as minor compared with what Siri was to the iPhone 4S or even Google Now to Android... Despite the launch and fanfare around the Galaxy S4, we continue to believe that Apple will maintain a low 40% market share in the high-end smartphone market in CY13."

????Jefferies' Peter Misek: Software Features Took the Stage. "The hardware was as expected and much like iPhone 5, the S4 saw little change in design from its predecessor besides a slight increase in size from 4.8" to 5". Samsung focused primarily on its software innovation and interface inputs such as gesture control and Smart Scroll/Pause. While we were impressed overall with our hands-on experience, we await to see how these features perform in the real world and if they are actually used. What does this mean for Apple? We believe the S4 will certainly sell well and it is incrementally negative for Apple; however, the device is not revolutionary, in our view. Aside from the large screen size, which we believe gives Samsung a large advantage over Apple, we believe many of the features can easily be replicated. Additionally, a major complaint amongst Galaxy users is that they do not like Samsung's customized software, especially when it is a downgrade in performance from stock Android features."

????Nomura's Stuart Jeffrey: Galaxy S4 to help Samsung overtake Apple. "While clearly a step forward relative to the S3, there is much that is evolutionary about the S4, rather than revolutionary. Nevertheless, we see the S4 potentially helping Samsung to overtake Apple in high-end smartphone shipments during 2013. Our initial thoughts include: ? Derivative form factor – the S4 looks rather similar to the S3 and sustains. ? Samsung use of plastics as the main backing material. ? Some compelling new features, although some will only work with other S4s or new Samsung TVs, arguably limiting their appeal. ? 35-40m high-end S4 and Note sales per quarter seems feasible, which would see Samsung overtake Apple in terms of high-end volumes."

????Barclays' Ben Reitzes: More Competition for iPhone Comes As Expected. "In terms of competition vs. Apple, the GS4 seems largely as expected – and there could be some relief for Apple (certain versions of LTE won't be available until later this year). However, as we stated recently in a recent report – we believe that Samsung's momentum is a major issue for Apple. As a result, we need to see Apple expand its iPhone market this year in a big way – and improve its platform. However, Apple seems rather silent of late – and could be waiting until C3Q to make any competitive response outside of potential adjustments to pricing."

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