聯(lián)想收購(gòu)戴爾的可能性有多大
|
????如今距離戴爾（Dell Inc.）“詢價(jià)期”截止只剩10天了。這10天內(nèi)，這家公司還可以征集更好的報(bào)價(jià)，高出邁克爾?戴爾和銀湖資本（Silver Lake Partners）聯(lián)手給出的每股13.65美元的出價(jià)。但我高度懷疑，就連13.65美元的出價(jià)最終可能也難以兌現(xiàn)。 ????不妨讓我們先來(lái)看看那些簽了戴爾數(shù)據(jù)保密協(xié)議的公司便知道了，這些公司是： ????聯(lián)想（Lenovo)：一家中國(guó)電腦生產(chǎn)商如何才能通過(guò)美國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的審核？誠(chéng)然，這家公司2005年收購(gòu)IBM個(gè)人電腦子公司的交易最終獲得了批準(zhǔn)。但那已經(jīng)是很多年以前的事情了，那時(shí)中國(guó)電腦黑客問(wèn)題還沒(méi)有成為美國(guó)一項(xiàng)重要的國(guó)防議題。當(dāng)時(shí)，美國(guó)外國(guó)投資委員會(huì)（CFIUS）還沒(méi)有阻止貝恩資本（Bain Capital）和中國(guó)華為科技公司（Huawei Technologies）擬議收購(gòu)3Com的計(jì)劃。如果CFIUS連讓中國(guó)人接觸到美國(guó)政府機(jī)構(gòu)使用的電腦網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備都感到不安，又怎么能讓中國(guó)人接觸到真正的電腦呢？ ????惠普（Hewlett-Packard）：理論上，梅格?惠特曼有可能全力投入，藉此壟斷個(gè)人電腦市場(chǎng)。但這樣，惠普就會(huì)面臨自己的監(jiān)管問(wèn)題（反壟斷）。而且也沒(méi)有跡象表明，惠普的股東們有興趣進(jìn)行再進(jìn)行一項(xiàng)大規(guī)模的收購(gòu)。還有一個(gè)問(wèn)題是，邁克爾?戴爾是否會(huì)投票支持跟他同名的這家公司被IBM這個(gè)曾經(jīng)嘲笑過(guò)收購(gòu)聲明的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手收購(gòu)。 ????卡爾?伊坎有傳言稱，伊坎將全盤(pán)收購(gòu)價(jià)提高到了每股15美元，并要求進(jìn)行一項(xiàng)特別派息（他已進(jìn)入詢價(jià)流程）。戴爾的特殊委員會(huì)一定也會(huì)很高興看到這一幕，因?yàn)樗麄兘K于可以證明，邁克爾?戴爾的出價(jià)并不是給公司的恩賜。但全盤(pán)私有化收購(gòu)并非伊坎的一貫做法。相反，伊坎最近鼓動(dòng)的事情更多是圍繞利潤(rùn)——試圖迫使他人提高出價(jià)，增加伊坎所持少數(shù)股股權(quán)的價(jià)值。伊坎已經(jīng)收購(gòu)了一些上市公司的控股股權(quán)。在這宗交易里，邁克爾?戴爾能留住嗎（鑒于他對(duì)于公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)的敵對(duì)態(tài)度，不太可能）？如果不能，為什么伊坎認(rèn)為，戴爾公司的所有權(quán)從邁克爾轉(zhuǎn)變到卡爾，會(huì)讓公眾股東認(rèn)為能提升戴爾公司的價(jià)值？要知道在這一全盤(pán)收購(gòu)計(jì)劃泄露前，基本不會(huì)有人討論每股13美元的戴爾——更不要說(shuō)每股15美元。 ????黑石集團(tuán)（The Blackstone Group）：這是最可能給出競(jìng)價(jià)的尋購(gòu)者，因?yàn)?1)邁克爾?戴爾已表示，如果出現(xiàn)一個(gè)更高的競(jìng)價(jià)，他將與銀湖之外的一家私募股權(quán)公司合作，（2）不存在有任何監(jiān)管上的擔(dān)憂。 但黑石收購(gòu)大型科技公司的記錄非常糟糕，這也解釋了為什么牽頭進(jìn)行這些交易的很多人都已經(jīng)離開(kāi)了這家公司。另外，很難想象黑石新聘合伙人戴維?約翰遜（戴爾公司先前的并購(gòu)負(fù)責(zé)人）具備足夠的影響力在投資委員會(huì)內(nèi)推進(jìn)這件事（也許這是他的目標(biāo)，但我不知道)。 ????另外，值得注意的一點(diǎn)是，伊坎或黑石的融資可能有點(diǎn)復(fù)雜。不是銀行貸款，而是微軟（Microsoft）提供的20億美元貸款。 ????我的理解是，微軟的這筆錢(qián)與銀湖的參與收購(gòu)直接掛鉤（來(lái)自Skype的老朋友）。這并不是說(shuō)微軟不會(huì)給其他競(jìng)價(jià)提供支持——畢竟，它的主旨是保護(hù)行業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)——但這家軟件巨頭沒(méi)有這樣做的契約責(zé)任。 ????當(dāng)然，以上這些并不意味著每股13.65美元的出價(jià)就一定會(huì)持續(xù)。僅僅是來(lái)自伊坎的壓力就可能迫使邁克爾?戴爾提高出價(jià)。但是，我預(yù)計(jì)，最終股東將投票支持邁克爾?戴爾和銀湖的出價(jià)，不管這一出價(jià)最終包括哪些具體內(nèi)容。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） |
????We are now 10 days away from the end of Dell Inc.'s "go-shop" period, during which the company can solicit superior bids to the existing $13.65 per share offer from Michael Dell and Silver Lake Partners. I continue to be highly skeptical that such an offer will materialize. ????Just take a look at those known to have signed nondisclosure agreements in exchange for access to Dell's (DELL) data-room: ????Lenovo (LNVGY): How on earth would the Chinese computer-maker pass U.S. regulatory muster? Sure it managed to get approval for its 2005 purchase IBM's (IBM) personal computer unit, but that was long before the issue of Chinese computer hacking was a major part of America's defense discourse. It also was before CFIUS blocked threatened to block Bain Capital and China's Huawei Technologies' proposed acquisition of 3Com. If CFIUS was uncomfortable with Chinese access to computer network equipment being used by U.S. government agencies, what about Chinese access to the actual computers? ????Hewlett-Packard (HPQ): Meg Whitman theoretically could go all in here, and try to corner the PC market. But HP would have regulatory issues of its own (antitrust) and there is no indication that HP shareholders have the stomach for another massive acquisition. And then there would be the question of if Michael Dell would vote his shares toward having his namesake company taken over by a rival that mocked his acquisition announcement. ????Carl Icahn: There have been rumors that Icahn floated a $15 per share buyout offer before asking for a special dividend (he's since entered the go-shop process), and Dell's special committee would like nothing more than a way to prove its not beholden to Michael Del's offer. But take-private buyouts aren't really Icahn's stock in trade. Instead his agitation lately has been more around the margins -- trying to force others to increase their own offers, thus increasing the value of Icahn's minority holdings. He's also acquired control stakes in some listed companies, but would Michael Dell stick around in such a situation (unlikely, given his animus toward the public markets)? And, if not, why does Icahn think public shareholders will view Dell as more valuable with a Michael-for-Carl trade at the top of the corporate food-chain? Remember, few people were talking about Dell as a $13 per share stock -- let alone a $15 per share stock -- before news of this buyout leaked. ????The Blackstone Group (BX): This is the most likely of an unlikely bunch, given that (1) Michael Dell has indicated that he would work with a private equity firm other than Silver Lake, if it offered a higher price, and (2) There wouldn't be any regulatory concerns. But Blackstone has a terrible record when it comes to large tech buyouts, which helps explain why many of the people who led those deals are no longer with the firm. Moreover, it's hard to imagine that new hire David Johnson (i.e., Michael Dell's former M&A guy) already has enough clout to push this one through investment committee (assuming that's his aim, which is unknown to me). ????It's also worth noting that the financing for Icahn or Blackstone could prove tricky. Not the bank debt, but that $2 billion loan from Microsoft (MSFT). ????My understanding is that the Microsoft money is specifically tied to Silver Lake's involvement (old pals from Skype). This isn't to say that Microsoft wouldn't hitch its wagon to a rival bid -- after all, its main prerogative is to protect its ecosystem -- but the software giant is under no contractual obligation to do so. ????To be sure, none of this means the $13.65 per share offer is destined to stand. Icahn's pressure alone may force Michael Dell to bump up his price. But I'd expect the final shareholder vote will be on the Michael Dell/Silver Lake offer, whatever the specifics of that offer ultimately include. |
最新文章