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????蘋(píng)果（Apple）正面臨著市值跳水的窘境，蘋(píng)果股價(jià)從去年9月至今已下跌了35%。眾多賣(mài)方分析師紛紛獻(xiàn)計(jì)獻(xiàn)策，現(xiàn)在甚至有人建議蘋(píng)果推出廉價(jià)iPhone。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）公司的凱蒂?休伯蒂對(duì)中國(guó)這一全球最大的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行了分析，并給大家算了一筆賬。

????周二，她在給客戶(hù)的一封信里提出了下面幾個(gè)觀(guān)點(diǎn)，令我耳目一新：

????? 人們大多認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的智能手機(jī)只會(huì)越來(lái)越便宜。與此相反，她援引一些研究結(jié)果，表明去年中國(guó)智能手機(jī)的平均售價(jià)趨于穩(wěn)定。同時(shí)隨著中國(guó)用戶(hù)開(kāi)始購(gòu)買(mǎi)品質(zhì)更好的智能手機(jī)，售價(jià)實(shí)際上已開(kāi)始走高。

????? 蘋(píng)果公司可以推出一款售價(jià)2,000元人民幣（330美元）的迷你iPhone，這樣就能和聯(lián)想（Lenovo）、華為（Huawei）、中興（ZTE）和酷派（Coolpad）的旗艦產(chǎn)品相抗衡了。

????? 就算利潤(rùn)率更低（比如40%），并且替代率為1/3（即全價(jià)iPhone的客戶(hù)流失三分之一），低價(jià)iPhone也能提高蘋(píng)果的營(yíng)收和毛利潤(rùn)（見(jiàn)上表）。

????? 推出迷你iPhone后，加上中國(guó)今年或明年頒發(fā)LTE執(zhí)照，就能最終說(shuō)服擁有7億用戶(hù)的中國(guó)移動(dòng)（China Mobile）和蘋(píng)果簽約。

????? 如果上述情況都變成現(xiàn)實(shí)，休伯蒂估計(jì)蘋(píng)果在中國(guó)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)上已跌至10%的份額將會(huì)提高三倍，達(dá)到近30%。

????當(dāng)然，這得取決于蘋(píng)果是否能設(shè)法用更便宜的零部件、更慢的處理器、分辨率更低的屏幕、以及也許是塑料機(jī)身來(lái)造出一部330美元的iPhone。而用蒂姆?庫(kù)克上周在高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）一次會(huì)議上的話(huà)說(shuō)，它決不能是個(gè)“低劣產(chǎn)品”。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????Adding to the growing literature of sell-side analysts who think the answer to Apple's (AAPL) market valuation woes (down 35% since September) is a low-cost iPhone, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has looked at China, the world's largest smartphone market, and done the math.

????She made several points in a note to clients Tuesday that struck me as new:

????? Contrary to the consensus view -- which assumes that smartphones in China will only get cheaper -- she cites research showing that the average selling price stablized last year and has actually started to increase as Chinese users trade up to higher-quality smartphones.

????? That Apple could launch a 2,000 yuan ($330) iPhone mini and be competitive with flagship products from Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE and Coolpad.

????? That even at a lower profit margin (say, 40%) and a 1/3 cannibalization rate (i.e. customers buy one third fewer full-priced iPhones), the cheaper iPhone would increase Apple's revenue and gross profits (see her spreadsheet above).

????? That an iPhone mini and a LTE license from the Chinese government this year or next could finally persuade China Mobile (CHL), with 700 million subscribers, to cut a deal with Apple.

????? If all this comes to pass, Huberty estimates that Apple's addressable smartphone market in China, which had dwindled to 10%, could triple to nearly 30%.

????This assumes, of course, that Apple can find a way to build a $330 iPhone with cheaper parts, a slower processor, a lower resolution screen and perhaps a plastic body, that isn't, in the phrase Tim Cook used at a Goldman Sachs conference last week, "a crappy product."