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專欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

中國(guó)3G用戶翻倍,蘋(píng)果有望大賺一筆

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年07月25日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周?chē)且黄艾F(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過(guò),Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
目前,中國(guó)的3G用戶總數(shù)已經(jīng)達(dá)到了1.76億,比上年增長(zhǎng)了118%,總體手機(jī)用戶數(shù)也在增長(zhǎng)。分析人士稱,盡管中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能放緩,iPhone或?qū)⒊蔀橹袊?guó)這一巨大市場(chǎng)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的“主要受益者”

????目前,中國(guó)的3G用戶總數(shù)已經(jīng)達(dá)到了1.76億,比上年增長(zhǎng)了118%,總體手機(jī)用戶數(shù)也在增長(zhǎng)。分析人士稱,盡管中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能放緩,iPhone或?qū)⒊蔀橹袊?guó)這一巨大市場(chǎng)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的“主要受益者”

????不出所料,唱衰蘋(píng)果(Apple)的人之所以徹底誤判了iPhone四月份的銷(xiāo)量是因?yàn)樗麄兺耆浟酥袊?guó),也就是蘋(píng)果僅次于美國(guó)的第二大市場(chǎng)。

????對(duì)于那些在上周——以及本周——下調(diào)了對(duì)iPhone銷(xiāo)量預(yù)期的分析師,投資公司Topeka Capital的布萊恩?懷特本周一致客戶的報(bào)告或許能讓他們警醒。

????現(xiàn)在,中國(guó)幾大運(yùn)營(yíng)商中速度最慢的一家也已公布了6月份的用戶總數(shù),盡管中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩,但其用戶總數(shù)仍然非常巨大。

????手機(jī)用戶總數(shù):10.5億,比五月增長(zhǎng)了0.9%,這是中國(guó)的手機(jī)用戶數(shù)量連續(xù)第四個(gè)月突破10億人。(相比之下,美國(guó)截至2011年12月?lián)碛械氖謾C(jī)用戶數(shù)僅為3.32億。)

????中國(guó)3G用戶總數(shù):1.76億,較上年增長(zhǎng)118%。有趣的是,中國(guó)移動(dòng)(China Mobile)在中國(guó)3G市場(chǎng)上所占份額下降了。中國(guó)移動(dòng)是全球最大的電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商,但正如懷特所言,它“是中國(guó)幾大運(yùn)營(yíng)商中唯一一家沒(méi)有與蘋(píng)果合作銷(xiāo)售iPhone的運(yùn)營(yíng)商,我們認(rèn)為這一點(diǎn)影響了它(每月])3G用戶的增長(zhǎng)?!?/p>

????“我們認(rèn)為中國(guó)的移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)正處于拐點(diǎn),”懷特寫(xiě)道?!岸O(píng)果公司將成為主要的受益者?!?/p>

????蘋(píng)果將在周二收盤(pán)后公布季度iPhone銷(xiāo)量(以及所有其它數(shù)據(jù))。我們預(yù)計(jì)它在“大中華”地區(qū)的銷(xiāo)量將成為大頭。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????iPhone likely to be "a major beneficiary" of the giant market's continued growth, says analyst

????The skeptics who completely misjudged Apple's iPhone sales in April did so, as predicted, because they forgot about China -- the company's second-largest market after the U.S.

????For those analysts who have reduced their iPhone estimates in the past week -- including a couple new ones today -- the note 's Brian White issued to clients Monday might serve as a wake-up call.

????The last of the major Chinese carriers have now reported their June subscriber totals, and despite weakening economic growth in the country, they are huge.

????Total wireless subscribers: 1.05 billion, up 0.9% from May, and the fourth consecutive month that mobile subscribers in China exceeded 1 billion. (The U.S., by comparison, had 332 million wireless subscribers as of Dec. 2011.)

????Total Chinese 3G subscribers: 176 million, up 118% year over year. Interestingly, China Mobile's (CHL) share of the country's 3G market actually fell. China Mobile is the world's largest telephone company, but as White notes, it "is the only major carrier in China that does not have a relationship with Apple to sell the iPhone and we believe this is showing up in the company's [monthly] 3G subscriber growth."

????"We believe the country's mobile Internet is at an inflection point," White writes, "and Apple (AAPL) will prove to be a major beneficiary."

????Apple will report its quarterly iPhone results (along with everything else) after the markets close on Tuesday. We expect sales into its "greater China" region to be a major factor.

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