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專(zhuān)欄 - 從華爾街到硅谷

剖析破裂的風(fēng)投模式

Dan Primack 2012年05月17日

Dan Primack專(zhuān)注于報(bào)道交易和交易撮合者,從美國(guó)金融業(yè)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資業(yè)均有涉及。此前,Dan是湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的自由編輯,推出了peHUB.com和peHUB Wire郵件服務(wù)。作為一名新聞工作者,Dan還曾在美國(guó)馬薩諸塞州羅克斯伯里經(jīng)營(yíng)一份社區(qū)報(bào)紙。目前他居住在波士頓附近。
風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的真正問(wèn)題出在哪里?

????考夫曼基金會(huì)(The Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation)發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告稱(chēng),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資模式已經(jīng)破裂。報(bào)告沒(méi)有歸咎于一般合伙人,而是投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本但未堅(jiān)持要求結(jié)構(gòu)性變革的有限合伙人。

????恰巧,上個(gè)月在Splunk成功IPO推動(dòng)Sevin Rosen第八支基金差不多實(shí)現(xiàn)了100%的賬面回報(bào)后,我又重提幾年前關(guān)于“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資模式已經(jīng)破產(chǎn)”的整場(chǎng)討論。因此,很多讀者問(wèn)我,考夫曼的報(bào)告是否讓我心有戚戚?;蛘?,用一位讀者的話說(shuō),“承認(rèn)你不知道自己在說(shuō)些什么?!?/p>

????考夫曼的報(bào)告主要有兩個(gè)結(jié)論:

????1. 十多年來(lái),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資總體而言沒(méi)有達(dá)到承諾的回報(bào)率(5億美元以上的基金尤其如此)。事實(shí)上,報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),如果當(dāng)初有限合伙人投資小盤(pán)的上市股指基金,得到的回報(bào)會(huì)更高。

????2. 有限合伙人不能忽視第一點(diǎn),為降低自身風(fēng)險(xiǎn),必須對(duì)風(fēng)投基金協(xié)議進(jìn)行重大的結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整。

????第一點(diǎn)主要是基于考夫曼包含近100支風(fēng)投基金的自有組合數(shù)據(jù)。而且,結(jié)論令人信服——特別是考慮到這些公司通常在“內(nèi)部回報(bào)率”達(dá)到或接近峰值時(shí)(有時(shí)峰值的出現(xiàn)可能遠(yuǎn)早于設(shè)想)募資,它認(rèn)為采用好年份的四分位數(shù)是不夠的。

????不幸的是考夫曼沒(méi)有披露一般合伙人情況——導(dǎo)致外界批評(píng)該組合只是選擇了一些糟糕的基金,以偏概全。

????而幸運(yùn)的是我進(jìn)行了一些調(diào)研:考夫曼的“核心”風(fēng)投組合包含Bessemer Venture Partners、Benchmark Capital、General Atlantic和Madrona Venture Partners的多支基金。它還有Clarus Ventures、Mayfield、MPM Capital、New Enterprise Associates和Oak Investment Partners等過(guò)往基金。從我理解來(lái)看,與Accel Partners、Kleiner Perkins、Sequoia、First Round、Foundry或Union Square等“名牌公司”沒(méi)什么關(guān)系。

????初初一看,我的反應(yīng)是“哇,考夫曼數(shù)據(jù)集里包含有這些基金,回報(bào)率這么差?”要么是其他基金糟透了,要么是其中的名牌基金盛名難副(要知道考夫曼從未有過(guò)一個(gè)超10億美元的基金剔除費(fèi)率后回報(bào)率可達(dá)200%)。

????The Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation has published a report arguing that the venture capital model is broken. And it lays blame not at the feet of general partners, but rather of limited partners who have continued to invest in venture capital without insisting on structural changes.

????This comes, of course, just days after I revisited the whole "VC model is broken" discussion from several years back, in the wake of Sevin Rosen basically returning its entire eighth fund (on paper) from the successful Splunk IPO. So a lot of you asked for me to chime in on the Kauffman study. Or, in the words of one reader, "admit that you don't know what you're talking about."

????The study basically breaks down into a pair of primary arguments:

????1. Venture capital has, in general, not produced its promised returns for more than a decade (with the situation being particularly acute in funds >$500m). In fact, it finds that LPs likely would have been better off investing in small-cap public equity index funds.

????2. Limited partners must internalize point #1, and make major structural changes to VC fund agreements in order to minimize their risk.

????The first point is mostly based on data from Kauffman's own portfolio of nearly 100 venture capital partnerships. And it is fairly compelling – particularly its argument that using vintage year quartiles is inadequate, considering that firms often fundraise at or near "peak IRR" (which sometimes comes much earlier than you might imagine).

????Unfortunately, Kauffman does not disclose its GP relationships – leading to some charges from the outside that the organization simply picked lousy funds and is looking for a macro scapegoat.

????Fortunately, I did some digging: Kauffman's "core" venture capital portfolio includes multiple commitments with Bessemer Venture Partners, Benchmark Capital, General Atlantic and Madrona Venture Partners. It also has legacy relationships with such firms as Clarus Ventures, Mayfield, MPM Capital, New Enterprise Associates and Oak Investment Partners. From what I understand, no relationships with "brand names" like Accel Partners, Kleiner Perkins, Sequoia, First Round, Foundry or Union Square.

????At first glance, my reaction was "Wow, Kauffman has such lousy returns with those funds included in the data set?" Either the other funds are god-awful, or the included brands aren't the superstars they get made out to be (particularly when you learn Kauffman has never had a $1 billion+ fund return 2x capital after fees).

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