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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

迷你iPad傳聞升溫,喬布斯生前有斷言

Miguel Helft 2012年04月19日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
關(guān)于小尺寸iPad的傳言正愈演愈烈。對(duì)此,史蒂夫?喬布斯早有斷言。

????近來,關(guān)于蘋果(Apple)正在打造一款小尺寸iPad的傳言甚囂塵上。投資公司Sterne Agee的分析師吳肖(音譯)是資深蘋果觀察員,本周二,他拉開了新一輪猜測的序幕。吳肖對(duì)投資者表示,“迷你”版iPad的推出只不過是時(shí)間問題。小尺寸版iPad推出的確切時(shí)間難以預(yù)測,但不會(huì)是近期。

????吳說的很可能沒錯(cuò)。不過,值得一提的是,史蒂夫?喬布斯生前就曾公開發(fā)表過對(duì)“迷你”版平板電腦的看法。早在2010年10月,喬布斯罕見地出席了蘋果公司的季度營收電話會(huì)議,猛烈抨擊了谷歌(Google)的Android移動(dòng)平臺(tái)。隨后,他話鋒一轉(zhuǎn),談到平板電腦,說了下面一席話(特別強(qiáng)調(diào)):

????我想談?wù)剬⒃谖磥韼讉€(gè)月內(nèi)鋪天蓋地進(jìn)入市場的平板電腦。首先,其中有可能成功的產(chǎn)品似乎屈指可數(shù),其實(shí)算不上鋪天蓋地。第二,這些產(chǎn)品幾乎全都選用7英寸屏幕,而iPad采用的是近10英寸的屏幕。我們就從這兒開始吧。人們自然會(huì)認(rèn)為,7英寸屏幕相當(dāng)于10英寸屏幕的70%。不幸的是,事實(shí)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不是這樣。屏幕的尺寸是對(duì)角線,因此,一塊7英寸屏幕的面積只相當(dāng)于iPad10英寸屏幕的45%。你沒聽錯(cuò),只有45%。

????如果把iPad豎起來放在身前,然后想象著在其屏幕中間畫一條水平線,那么7英寸平板電腦的屏幕要比這條中軸線還要靠下。我們認(rèn)為,這種尺寸的屏幕根本無法讓平板電腦應(yīng)用程序獲得理想的效果。

????當(dāng)然,也許可以增加屏幕分辨率,從而在一定程度上彌補(bǔ)尺寸的不足。但這毫無意義,除非同時(shí)給這種平板電腦配上砂紙,用戶可以用它來打磨自己的手指,把手指的尺寸縮小到原來的四分之一。多年以來,蘋果在觸摸界面領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行了大量用戶試驗(yàn),我們對(duì)此早已了然于心。在保證用戶能流暢地點(diǎn)擊、滑動(dòng)和觸摸元素的前提下,觸摸屏上各種元素之間的距離肯定是有下限的。正是因?yàn)檫@個(gè)原因,我們認(rèn)為10英寸屏是平板電腦必須的最小尺寸,只有這樣,才能保證應(yīng)用程序的理想效果。

????但話又說回來,眾所周知,喬布斯在2004年也曾經(jīng)過否認(rèn)蘋果正在開發(fā)手機(jī),但實(shí)際上蘋果當(dāng)時(shí)正在開發(fā)iPhone。所以,喬布斯一年半前的這番演講很難讓蘋果的競爭對(duì)手們放心(他們?cè)谄桨咫娔X領(lǐng)域至今仍無法與蘋果抗衡)。吳表示,價(jià)格更低的迷你版iPad將是“競爭對(duì)手們最大的夢魘”。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????Rumors that Apple is building a smaller iPad have been picking up steam for some time. On Tuesday, Sterne Agee analysts Shaw Wu, a veteran Apple watcher, kicked off a new round of speculation when he told investors that an iPad "mini" was a question of when, not if. Wu said that the exact timing of the smaller tablet was difficult to predict and not "imminent."

????Wu may well be right. Still, it's worth remembering what the late Steve Jobs said publicly about "mini" tablets. Back in October 2010, he made an unusual appearance in the Apple's (AAPL) quarterly earnings conference call to deliver withering tirade against Google's (GOOG) Android mobile platform. Then he switched to tablets and said the following (emphasis added):

????I'd like to comment on the avalanche of tablets poised to enter the market in the coming months. First, it appears to be just a handful of credible entrants, not exactly an avalanche. Second, almost all of them use seven-inch screens as compared to iPad's near 10-inch screen. Let's start there. One naturally thinks that a seven-inch screen would offer 70% of the benefits of a 10-inch screen. Unfortunately, this is far from the truth. The screen measurements are diagonal, so that a seven-inch screen is only 45% as large as iPad's 10-inch screen. You heard me right; just 45% as large.

????If you take an iPad and hold it upright in portrait view and draw an imaginary horizontal line halfway down the screen, the screens on the seven-inch tablets are a bit smaller than the bottom half of the iPad display. This size isn't sufficient to create great tablet apps in our opinion.

????Well, one could increase the resolution of the display to make up for some of the difference. It is meaningless, unless your tablet also includes sandpaper, so that the user can sand down their fingers to around one quarter of the present size. Apple's done extensive user-testing on touch interfaces over many years, and we really understand this stuff. There are clear limits of how close you can physically place elements on a touch screen before users cannot reliably tap, flick or pinch them. This is one of the key reasons we think the 10-inch screen size is the minimum size required to create great tablet apps.

????Then again, Jobs famously denied Apple was working on a phone back in 2004 just as Apple was, well, working on a phone. So it's unlikely that Jobs' 18-month-old tirade gives Apple rivals, who have been unable to compete in tablets so far, any comfort. Wu said a smaller iPad, at a lower price point, would be "the competition's worst nightmare."

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