圖片來源：德意志銀行
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????今春的大部分時間，蘋果（Apple）的專項記者們爭論不休，焦點集中在蘋果預計今年9月份將發(fā)布的新一代iPhone究竟該如何命名。 ????一些人稱其為iPhone 5，這是為了與蘋果在三周前發(fā)布的iOS 5操作系統(tǒng)相對應。 ????另一些人則預計新iPhone并不是重新設計的新款iPhone，而是“加速版”iPhone 4，按照慣例應該叫iPhone 4S，就像蘋果在兩年前發(fā)布的iPhone 3GS一樣。 ????本周一早晨，德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的克里斯?維特莫爾在報告中告訴客戶，iPhone 5和iPhone 4S將可能同時發(fā)布。 ????維特莫爾表示：“隨著諾基亞（Nokia）和RIMM（黑莓手機生產(chǎn)商——譯注）的消沉，蘋果應抓住這一機會滲透中端智能手機市場（例如300至500美元價格區(qū)間），以顯著拓展整個潛在市場（total addressable market）以及市場份額。” ????在維特莫爾看來，如果解鎖版iPhone 4S定價在349美元左右，并配套預付費語音套餐，那么它將“顯著提高（在潛在市場的）普及率”，這一市場目前已增長到擁有15億潛在客戶，分布在98個國家，其中三分之二的人偏好預付費套餐。 ????在美國，大部分手機是由運營商補貼的，這些運營商通過與用戶簽約，從每月話費中收回手機成本。不過如上面的圖表所示，世界上有很多地方，特別是在非洲、亞洲和拉丁美洲這些iPhone普及率不高的地方，用戶傾向于預先支付手機的全部成本。 ????值得注意的是，分析人士呼吁蘋果發(fā)布成本較低的預付費版iPhone已有一段時間，而且維特莫爾在發(fā)表其“iPhone雙款同步發(fā)行”理論時并未援引任何消息來源，也未聲稱自己掌握了什么內(nèi)部情報。 ????（然而，科技網(wǎng)站Loop的吉姆?達里姆普回憶稱，今年早些時候，蘋果首席運營官蒂姆?庫克對研究機構(gòu)Bernstein的托尼?薩克納西透露，蘋果“知道在預付費市場，價格是非常重要的因素”，雖然預付費市場似乎不是蘋果的領域，但庫克表示該公司“不會放棄任何市場”。） ????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂剛在臺灣參加完一周的會議，上周日，她在另一份報告中指出， ????如果休伯蒂所認為的新款iPhone直到8月中下旬才投產(chǎn)，那么發(fā)布時間可能要拖到9月底。下圖是休伯蒂的iPhone銷量預測，她將200萬部銷量從第三季度移至第四季度（分別是蘋果2011年第四財季和2012年第一財季）。她表示，如果新款iPhone能在9月初發(fā)布，她將把這200萬部銷量移回來。 |
????For much of the spring, the reporters who cover Apple (AAPL) have been arguing among themselves about what to call the new iPhone they expect the company to introduce in September. ????Some call it the iPhone 5, to match the iOS 5 operating system Apple unveiled to developers three weeks ago. ????Some, anticipating that the new device will be a speeded-up iPhone 4 rather than a major re-design, have been calling it the iPhone 4S, echoing the nomenclature Apple used two years ago when it introduced the iPhone 3GS. ????In a note issued early Monday, Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore is telling clients to expect both -- an iPhone 5 and an iPhone 4S. ????"With Nokia and RIMM struggling," he writes, "the time is right for Apple to aggressively penetrate the mid range smart-phone market (i.e. $300-500 category) to dramatically expand its [total addressable market] and market share." ????As Whitmore sees it, an iPhone 4S that is unlocked, priced around $349, and comes with a pre-paid voice plan would "drive significantly greater penetration" into an addressable market that has grown to include 1.5 billion potential customers in 98 countries, two thirds of whom prefer pre-paid plans. ????In the U.S., most cellphones are subsidized by carriers with contracts that allow them to recoup the cost of the phone in monthly payments. But as the above chart shows, there are large swaths of the world -- especially in Africa, Asia and Latin America, where iPhone penetration is low -- where customers prefer to pay the full cost of the phone upfront. ????Note that analysts for some time have been calling for Apple to release a lower cost, pre-paid iPhone, and that Whitmore does not cite any sources or claim any inside knowledge for his two-iPhone theory. ????[The Loop's Jim Dalrymple, however, recalls that COO Tim Cook told Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi earlier this year that Apple "understood price is big factor in the prepaid market," and though the pre-paid market may seem out of Apple's realm, Cook said that the company was "not ceding any market."] ????In a separate note issued Sunday, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, back from a week of meetings in Taiwan, reports that she expects iPhone and iPad production to "begin ramping up aggressively" from August through the end of the year. ????If production for what Huberty sees as one new iPhone doesn't start until in mid to late August, the launch might not come until late September. In her unit sales spreadsheet, copied below, she's shifted 2 million iPhones from calendar Q3 to calendar Q4 (Apple's fiscal Q4 and Q1 2012). If the launch comes in early September, she says, she'll shift them back. |
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譯者：項航 |
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