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????上周五，加皇資本市場(chǎng)(RBC capital)的邁克?阿布拉姆斯基率先就富士康(Foxconn)成都工廠爆炸一事對(duì)蘋果公司(Apple)的影響向客戶發(fā)出報(bào)告。

????阿布拉姆斯基認(rèn)為，成都工廠是iPad 2的兩個(gè)主要生產(chǎn)基地之一，另一個(gè)是富士康原先的深圳工廠。但他的消息人士對(duì)這兩家工廠的相對(duì)重要性有不同看法。有些人相信大部分iPad是在成都生產(chǎn)，而其他人表示之前成都已遇到增產(chǎn)問題，大部分iPad仍在深圳生產(chǎn)。

????據(jù)此，他相應(yīng)地給出了兩種情境（以下是我的引用）：

????1) 業(yè)務(wù)影響嚴(yán)重。這種情境假定成都工廠生產(chǎn)大部分iPad，此次爆炸影響嚴(yán)重；換言之，蘋果無法通過其他生產(chǎn)基地彌補(bǔ)產(chǎn)量，6月底前無法恢復(fù)量產(chǎn)。如果是這樣的情況，對(duì)蘋果公司截至6月份的第三財(cái)季將產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響；成都工廠停產(chǎn)至6月底，可能相當(dāng)于第三財(cái)季損失180-280萬(wàn)臺(tái)iPad產(chǎn)量，占我們預(yù)期的第三財(cái)季iPad 總800萬(wàn)臺(tái)發(fā)貨量的22-36%。如果到6月底富士康無法恢復(fù)正常生產(chǎn)，也可能導(dǎo)致2011財(cái)年第四財(cái)季(截至9月份)出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)量缺口。在這種情境下，第三財(cái)季受影響的營(yíng)收可能為11-17億美元(4-7%)，受影響每股收益將為0.35-0.55美元(6-9%)，以當(dāng)前估值，這意味著蘋果股價(jià)有5-7美元的下跌空間。

????2) 業(yè)務(wù)影響不那么嚴(yán)重。這種情境假定大部分iPad仍由深圳生產(chǎn)，未受影響，或是富士康成都工廠能很快恢復(fù)iPad生產(chǎn)。估計(jì)只有1個(gè)月的產(chǎn)量受影響，可能相當(dāng)于第三財(cái)季減產(chǎn)量不到130萬(wàn)臺(tái)，對(duì)第四財(cái)季影響有限。在這種情境下，受影響營(yíng)收將不到8億美元(<3%)，受影響每股收益不到0.26美元 (<4%)，以當(dāng)前估值計(jì)，這意味著蘋果股價(jià)下行空間不到3美元。

????上周五蘋果股價(jià)僅下跌1%，在阿布拉姆斯看來這說明投資者在消化情境2。(當(dāng)日，蘋果收盤再跌0.5%，報(bào)335.22美元。)

????RBC capital's Mike Abramsky was the first analyst out of the gate Friday with a note to clients assessing the effect on Apple (AAPL) of the explosion at Foxconn's Chengdu plant.

????According to Abramsky, the plant is one of two primary manufacturing sites where the iPad 2 is produced, the other being Foxconn's original Shenzhen facility. His sources disagree, however, about the two plants' relative importance. Some believe the majority of iPads were being manufactured at Chengdu; others say that Chengdu was having trouble ramping up, and that the majority of iPads were still being manufactured in Shenzhen.

????Accordingly, he offers two scenarios: (I quote)

????1) Serious Business Impact.Under this scenario, Chengdu manufactures most iPads and the explosion is serious; i.e. Apple is unable to utilize alternatives or get back on stream by June. If so, it could be negative for Apple's Q3 (June); stoppage of Chengdu until end June may equate to the lost production of 1.8-2.8M units Q3, which is 22-36% of our expectations for 8M iPad shipments Q3. If Foxconn is unable to pick up the slack by June, it could also cause production shortages for Q4/F11 (end Sept). Under this scenario, Q3 revenue may be impacted by $1.1-1.7B (4-7%) and EPS $0.35-0.55 (6-9%), which at current valuation represents $5-7 downside to shares.

????2) Less Serious Business Impact.Under this scenario, either Shenzhen still makes most iPads and is unaffected, and/or Foxconn is able to re-start iPad production quickly at Chengdu. Estimating a 1 month production impact, would perhaps equate to <1.3M units Q3 with limited impact to Q4. Under this scenario, revenue would be impacted by <$800M (<3%) and EPS <$0.26 (<4%) which at current valuation represents less than $3 downside to shares.

????The fact that Apple's shares dropped only 1% on Friday suggests to Abramsky that investors are pricing in scenario 1. (Apple fell another 0.5% to close the day at $335.22.)