歐洲的引擎——德國正在熄火。它可能會(huì)讓整個(gè)歐洲大陸一并趴窩。

由于陷入全球貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的夾擊，又因英國脫歐的不確定性而受到嚴(yán)重影響，嚴(yán)重依賴出口的德國經(jīng)濟(jì)毫不意外地在第二季度收縮了0.1%，而且似乎看不到任何緩和的跡象。Capital Economics的安德魯·肯寧厄姆對路透社（Reuters）表示，“總之，德國經(jīng)濟(jì)正徘徊在衰退邊緣?！?/p>

德國制造業(yè)全線下滑，汽車行業(yè)尤其低迷，跌至2009年大衰退最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期以來的最低點(diǎn)。

德國聯(lián)邦統(tǒng)計(jì)局（German Federal Statistics Office）將全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期下調(diào)至0.5%，這個(gè)歐盟最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體因此成為又一個(gè)歐洲病夫。盡管分析師對糟糕的數(shù)字早有預(yù)期，但這一消息還是讓投資者進(jìn)行了拋售。歐洲主要交易所下跌，德國DAX指數(shù)早盤下跌近0.5%，隨后有所回升。10年期政府公債跌至負(fù)值，-0.624%的數(shù)據(jù)為史上最低。

不過，歐元在早盤交易中保持堅(jiān)挺。德國的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)通常是歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的風(fēng)向標(biāo)，其GDP數(shù)據(jù)為歐元區(qū)未來幾個(gè)月將如何管理財(cái)政政策提供了一個(gè)很好的指標(biāo)。

目前外界普遍預(yù)計(jì)，歐洲央行（European Central Bank）將不得不在9月份的會(huì)議上發(fā)揮更大的創(chuàng)造力，推出新的刺激措施，防止歐元區(qū)進(jìn)入衰退。在即將離任的歐洲央行行長馬里奧·德拉吉主持的最后一次會(huì)議上，可能會(huì)推出新一輪降息和/或購買債券。

歐洲央行任何此類舉措都可能給歐元帶來進(jìn)一步的壓力，此舉可能會(huì)讓歐洲進(jìn)一步招致特朗普政府的指責(zé)。華盛頓這幾個(gè)月一直在抱怨，稱美國最大的貿(mào)易伙伴們正積極參與操縱匯率，試圖以犧牲美國貿(mào)易平衡為代價(jià)提振出口。

不過，至少歐元的疲軟部分可以歸咎于各地的政治。歐元區(qū)第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體意大利正面臨一場危機(jī)，這場危機(jī)可能導(dǎo)致政府垮臺(tái)，使市場進(jìn)一步承壓。意大利互不滿意的聯(lián)盟伙伴正搖搖晃晃地走向分裂，這也動(dòng)搖了歐洲債券市場，擠壓了歐元。下周，意大利是否將提前進(jìn)行大選，羅馬方面局勢或許會(huì)更明朗。

如果馬特奧·薩爾維尼領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的極右翼民族主義聯(lián)盟黨在新的選舉中獲勝，歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)可能遠(yuǎn)會(huì)更糟糕，而該黨目前已經(jīng)在意大利民調(diào)中領(lǐng)先。薩爾維尼長期對歐元和歐盟持懷疑態(tài)度，他希望通過減稅和增加支出來對抗歐盟，此舉幾乎肯定會(huì)進(jìn)一步增加意大利已經(jīng)占GDP 130%的驚人債務(wù)。

而在以節(jié)儉著名的德國，一直面臨著完全相反的問題——刺激支出不夠。不過，這種情況也發(fā)生了變化。最新的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，德國家庭和政府支出是本季度為數(shù)不多的亮點(diǎn)之一。但整體經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)被通常十分可靠的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)拖累了。德國聯(lián)邦統(tǒng)計(jì)局在一份聲明中表示：“外貿(mào)發(fā)展拖慢了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，因?yàn)槌隹诃h(huán)比降幅大于進(jìn)口?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

Germany, the engine of Europe, is sputtering. And it could take the continent down with it.

Caught in the crossfire of a global trade war and paralyzed by an uncertain Brexit showdown, the export-heavy German economy, as expected, contracted 0.1% in the second quarter, and there doesn’t appear to be any relief in sight. “The bottom line is that the German economy is teetering on the edge of recession,” Andrew Kenningham of Capital Economics, told Reuters.

German manufacturing was down across the board, with the auto sector seeing a particular slump, declining to its worst point since 2009, during the worst days of the Great Recession.

The German Federal Statistics Office lowered its full-year forecast to 0.5%, making the EU’s largest economy its new sick man of Europe. Even though analysts expected the gloomy numbers, investors sold on the news. The major European exchange sank, with Germany’s DAX down nearly 0.5% in early trading, before recovering somewhat. The 10-year government bond sunk to a record low, further into negative territory, at –0.624%.

The euro, however, held firm in early trading. Germany’s economic performance is usually the bellweather for the health of the eurozone, and its GDP numbers offer up a good indicator for how the bloc will manage fiscal policy in the months ahead.

It’s now largely expected that the European Central Bank will have to get more creative at its September meeting, introducing new stimulus measures to keep the bloc from sliding into a recession. On the cards could be a fresh round of interest-rate cuts and/or bond purchases in what would be the last meeting helmed by outgoing ECB chief Mario Draghi.

Any such move by the ECB would likely put further pressure on the euro, a move that could put Europe further in the Trump Administration’s dog house. Washington has been complaining for months that its biggest trading partners are actively engaged in currency manipulation tactics to try to goose exports at the expense of America’s trade balance.

At least some of the euro’s weakness, though, can be blamed on local politics. Italy, the euro zone’s No. 3 economy, is facing a crisis that could sink the government and set markets further on edge. The country’s fractious coalition partners are heading for a rocky split, and that too has shaken Europe’s bond market and squeezed the euro. Next week there should be some clarity in Rome about whether the country is heading for snap elections.

Europe’s economic fortunes could get much worse should Matteo Salvini’s far-right nationalist League party, already leading in the Italian polls, claim top spot in new elections. Salvini is a longtime euro- and EU-skeptic who wants to defy Brussels by cutting taxes and boosting spending, a move that would almost certainly add to the country’s staggering debt pile of more than 130% of GDP.

In thrifty Germany, the problem has long been the opposite—not enough stimulus spending. That too though has changed though. The latest economic figures show that German household and government spending were among the few bright spots in the quarter. The usually reliable trade data though dragged on results. “The development of foreign trade slowed down economic growth because exports recorded a stronger quarter-on-quarter decrease than imports,” the statistics office said in a statement.