近日里，我們很難再看到一個樂觀主義者。

It’s hard to find an optimist these days.

由商業(yè)信心指數(shù)（Business Confidence Index, BCI）衡量的商業(yè)信心在今年6月同比下滑1.3%。當(dāng)月的信心指數(shù)僅有99.82，低于100的基準線，表明企業(yè)對未來抱有悲觀情緒。

這些數(shù)值表明貿(mào)易對支出和供應(yīng)鏈動態(tài)的影響導(dǎo)致了不確定性。Pacific Life Fund Advisors的資產(chǎn)分配主管馬克思·高克曼在照會中對《財富》雜志表示，對于貿(mào)易的擔(dān)憂是“商業(yè)信心低迷的關(guān)鍵”，如果放任情況惡化，恐怕會“加劇經(jīng)濟衰退”。

擔(dān)憂的原因主要包括以下幾個方面。

美國服務(wù)業(yè)的增長率在今年7月跌至三年來的最低點，許多人從整體經(jīng)濟中感受到了日益強大的焦慮，這在業(yè)務(wù)訂單中得到了體現(xiàn)。更糟的是，制造業(yè)的增速放緩已經(jīng)影響了非制造行業(yè)。供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會（Institute for Supply Management, ISM）在8月5日發(fā)布的報告顯示，美國非制造業(yè)指數(shù)從6月的55.1下滑至7月的53.7（這是2016年8月以來的最低值），而7月的非制造業(yè)商業(yè)活動較之上月也有5.1%的減少。

BMO Capital Markets的美國利率策略主管伊恩·林根在照會中寫道：“對于一個嚴重依賴服務(wù)行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟體而言，現(xiàn)在公布的數(shù)據(jù)令人尤其不安?！?/p>

林根沒有說錯——美國經(jīng)濟有70%由服務(wù)業(yè)構(gòu)成，服務(wù)業(yè)的增長放緩，表明企業(yè)對貿(mào)易狀況感到擔(dān)憂，并會在面臨中國的不確定性時繼續(xù)保持謹慎。此外，富國銀行投資研究所（Wells Fargo Investment Institute）的投資戰(zhàn)略分析師彼得·唐尼薩努在給《財富》雜志的照會中指出：“盡管服務(wù)業(yè)的采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）直到近期還有上揚，但它未來的疲軟預(yù)示著美國經(jīng)濟有進一步下行的風(fēng)險?！?/p>

罪魁禍首在于不確定性

克萊頓大學(xué)（Creighton University）海德商學(xué)院（Heider College of Business）的金融學(xué)教授羅伯特·約翰遜表示：“混亂局面讓商業(yè)計劃難以確定?！彼谡諘袑Α敦敻弧冯s志表示，這是招聘崗位減少、支出降低的原因。他還認為關(guān)稅“對公司盈利造成了壓力，公司業(yè)績不景氣的可能性也有所提高”。

盡管美國的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)依舊相對強勁，但去年起員工薪水的增長已經(jīng)有所放緩，許多專家認為這可能也是貿(mào)易問題所致。

SLC Management投資策略主管迪克·穆拉基對《財富》雜志表示：“如果你接觸過那些擔(dān)憂未來走向何處的公司，他們會在招聘時保持謹慎，這會導(dǎo)致失業(yè)率提升，消費者也會開始退卻?！?/p>

此外，標普全球評級（S&P Global Ratings）的全球企業(yè)資本支出調(diào)查顯示，資本支出在去年漲幅僅為2%，預(yù)計在2019年的漲幅也僅有3%。標普全球評級的加雷斯·威廉姆斯寫道，疲弱的資本支出“在多年的刺激之后已經(jīng)癱軟無力，這意味著資本支出在維持現(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟循環(huán)上提供不了太大幫助”。SLC的穆拉基認為在中美關(guān)系有著更明晰的道路之前，公司不會在資本支出上進行投入。

此外，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）認為，由于最近一輪加征關(guān)稅的商品中有三分之二都是日用消費品，新關(guān)稅可能“比起之前幾次，會給美國帶來更加顯著的影響”。摩根士丹利的首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家查坦·阿亞在給投資者的照會中如此說道：“貿(mào)易緊張推動著企業(yè)信心和全球增長走向多年來的最低水平?！备鶕?jù)最近一篇報告，摩根士丹利認為商業(yè)信心衰減已經(jīng)給經(jīng)濟增長和業(yè)績疲軟造成了影響?！啊?/p>

Bankrate.com的首席經(jīng)濟分析師馬克·哈姆里克對《財富》雜志表示，他認為隨著企業(yè)開始權(quán)衡如何行動，最近的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)升級“改變了消費者承擔(dān)的張力點”。

不過，盡管經(jīng)濟增長放緩，但美國經(jīng)濟整體仍然處于擴張態(tài)勢（相關(guān)指標都還處于50以上）。雖然出現(xiàn)了緊張跡象，但伴隨著勉強超過50基準線（53.7）的服務(wù)業(yè)增長指數(shù)，經(jīng)濟擴張仍在繼續(xù)。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴匡正

Business confidence, measured by the Business Confidence Index (BCI), decreased some 1.3% in June from the same month last year. And according to the index, June’s 99.82 reading is just below the 100-mark, indicating a pessimistic bent.

Those numbers reflect uncertainty over how trade may affect expenditures and supply chain dynamics. Max Gokhman, head of asset allocation at Pacific Life Fund Advisors, told Fortune in a note that trade concerns are “paramount to souring business confidence,” and could “hasten the downturn” if they escalate.

There are a few main causes for concern.

Growth in the U.S. services sector slowed to three-year lows for July, as business orders reflect the anxiety many are increasingly feeling toward the overall economy. And to make matters worse, slowing manufacturing growth has bled into non-manufacturing sectors as well. According to the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) report released on August 5, July U.S. non-manufacturing index growth decreased from 55.1 in June to 53.7 (the lowest reading since August 2016), and non-manufacturing business activity also decreased by 5.1% from June readings.

“For an economy that is so heavily dependent on the service sector, this is a particularly troubling release,” Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. interest rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note.

And Lyngen is right—the services sector comprises 70% of the U.S. economy, and slowed growth signals corporations are concerned about trade and could continue being cautious in the face of China uncertainty. And “while buoyant until recently, further weakness in services sector PMI readings could yet portend further downside risks to the U.S. economy,” Peter Donisanu, investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told Fortune in a note.

The culprit: uncertainty

The “chaotic environment makes planning for businesses problematic,” according to Robert Johnson, professor of finance at Heider College of Business, Creighton University. He told Fortune in a note that’s what leading to lower hiring numbers and less spending. He also suggests that the tariffs “put pressure on corporate earnings and the likelihood of a corporate earnings recession has also increased.”

While employment data is still relatively strong, payroll gains have slowed since last year, and many experts suggest it may be due to questions over trade.

“If you’ve got companies that get concerned about where the future is leading, they’ll get cautious on their hiring plans, and that will lead to a rise in unemployment and consumers will start to pull back,” Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy for SLC Management, tells Fortune.

To boot, capital expenditures (or capex), grew only 2% last year and is expected to grow only 3% in 2019, according to the S&P Global Ratings’ Global Corporate Capex Survey. These weaker expenditures are “thin gruel after years of stimulus and means that capex will not offer much help in sustaining the current economic cycle,” writes S&P Global’s Gareth Williams. And SLC’s Mullarkey believes companies aren’t going to spend on capex until there is a clearer path forward with China.

Additionally, Morgan Stanley suggests that, since two-thirds of the goods to be tariffed in the latest levy are consumer goods, the new tariffs could “l(fā)ead to a more pronounced impact on the US as compared to earlier tranches,” Morgan Stanley chief economist Chetan Ahya said in a note to investors. “Trade tensions have pushed corporate confidence and global growth to multi-year lows.” And according to a recent report, Morgan Stanley suggests economic growth and weak earnings are already being impacted by waning business confidence.

As corporations weigh how to act, Bankrate.com’s chief economic analyst Mark Hamrick believes the latest trade escalation “shifts the point of strain ... on the shoulders of the consumer,” Hamrick told Fortune.

However, while growth is slowing, it is still considered expansionary (as any reading above 50 indicates). With services sector growth just barely above that 50-level mark at 53.7, the expansion continues...albeit showing signs of strain.