乘坐廉價(jià)航班飛往歐洲的未來(lái)全系于一家斯堪的納維亞公司身上。

由于六個(gè)月內(nèi)發(fā)生兩起機(jī)毀人亡事故，波音737 Max在今年3月遭全球停飛。當(dāng)時(shí)許多人都覺(jué)得這是挪威航空的“末日”。這家低成本航空公司此前橫空出世，占據(jù)了跨大西洋航空市場(chǎng)的很大一塊份額。

737 MAX占挪威航空所有飛機(jī)的10%以上，該公司急需它們投入運(yùn)營(yíng)，以便創(chuàng)造現(xiàn)金來(lái)償還70億美元的債務(wù)——這是過(guò)去10年來(lái)挪航飛速發(fā)展的結(jié)果。

但兩個(gè)月后，經(jīng)過(guò)了一系列驚心動(dòng)魄的財(cái)務(wù)操作，挪航現(xiàn)在可能“四顧茫然”，但看起來(lái)它或許有可能活下來(lái)。

跌幅嚇人

無(wú)可否認(rèn)，挪航及其投資者很受傷。該公司今年1月發(fā)行了大量新股（七個(gè)月內(nèi)的第二次），又籌集了約3.3億美元資金——同時(shí)攤薄了現(xiàn)有股東的股權(quán)。但此舉未能阻止其股價(jià)在4月底創(chuàng)下八年新低，和2015年的高點(diǎn)相比暴跌了80%以上。不過(guò)，這些新股降低了今年12月挪航債券違約的可能性。今年1月該債券的收益率下滑逾15%，降至略低于8.7%的水平。

The future of low-cost flights to Europe is hanging by a Scandinavian thread.

When global regulators grounded Boeing’s 737 MAX aircraft in March in response to a second fatal crash in six months, many predicted it could be the end of Norwegian Air Shuttle, the low-cost airline that has come from nowhere to grab a big chunk of the market for transatlantic flights.

The 737 MAX accounted for over 10% of its fleet, and Norwegian desperately needed them in the air, generating cash to pay back the $7 billion in debt it has racked up in a breakneck expansion over the last decade.

But two months and a lot of frenetic financial juggling later, the airline may be flying by the seat of its pants, but it looks like it might—just —survive.

A dire downside

To be sure, the airline—and its investors—are hurting. The company diluted existing investors with a big sale of new shares in January (the second in seven months) that raised some $330 million in new capital. That hasn’t stopped Norwegian’s stock from falling to an eight-year low at the end of April, down over 80% from its 2015 peak. But the new stock has made a default on the airlines’ bonds in December less likely: their yield has fallen from over 15% in January to just under 8.7%.

挪航預(yù)計(jì)，這些嶄新的波音飛機(jī)將至少停飛到8月中旬。也就是說(shuō)，在關(guān)鍵的夏季，它們幾乎都要作壁上觀——這將給挪航帶來(lái)高達(dá)5億挪威克朗的成本，約合5700萬(wàn)美元。

意外之喜

但737 Max停飛也給挪航帶來(lái)了意外之喜。最重要的是，這讓該公司避開了此前過(guò)度擴(kuò)張所產(chǎn)生的影響。兩周前，挪航說(shuō)服波音推遲交付14架新的737 Max。挪航原定于2020和2021年接收這些飛機(jī)。今年4月，挪航還和空中客車達(dá)成推遲交付協(xié)議。據(jù)首席財(cái)務(wù)官蓋爾·卡爾森介紹，現(xiàn)在挪航將自身資本支出降低了21億美元左右，否則該公司可能很難拿出這筆錢來(lái)。

更可喜的是，737 Max出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題意味著波音的其他顧客現(xiàn)在都愿意以更高的價(jià)格購(gòu)買空客320和321，特別是那些來(lái)自于快速增長(zhǎng)的新興市場(chǎng)的客戶，而挪航在幾年前就向空客下了一大筆訂單?？柹谌ツ?月曾說(shuō)，挪航之前訂購(gòu)的全部90架空客飛機(jī)幾乎都要轉(zhuǎn)讓。兩周前他又向投資者表示，由于737 Max出了事，挪航訂的空客飛機(jī)最近“毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)”都升值了。

挪航有些運(yùn)氣，它的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手則嘗到了苦頭——私募公司Permira和冰島航空公司W(wǎng)ow Air破產(chǎn)，斯堪的納維亞旗艦航空公司SAS一直受罷工影響，從而讓挪航爭(zhēng)奪到了乘客。

出售傳聞

這是否足以讓挪航的潛在買家鼓起勇氣則是另外一個(gè)問(wèn)題。挪航目前股價(jià)還不到國(guó)際聯(lián)合航空集團(tuán)（IAG）去年報(bào)價(jià)的一半，后者是英國(guó)航空和伊比利亞航空的母公司。IAG公司的首席執(zhí)行官威利·沃爾什沒(méi)有和挪航達(dá)成協(xié)議，也未參與競(jìng)購(gòu)。但今年3月沃爾什表示，在重新考慮挪航的問(wèn)題上他“絕不會(huì)說(shuō)絕不”。

兩周前，一直有傳聞?wù)f要收購(gòu)挪航的漢莎航空轉(zhuǎn)而選擇了英國(guó)旅游公司托邁酷客的航空業(yè)務(wù)，這看來(lái)降低了挪航遭競(jìng)購(gòu)的幾率。

不久前，IAG披露了第一季度業(yè)績(jī)。沃爾什在分析師電話會(huì)議上重申，他并未考慮收購(gòu)挪航：“我們并沒(méi)有考慮它（挪航），而且我們也不打算采取任何行動(dòng)……目前沒(méi)有這種可能?！?/p>

依然受困

與此同時(shí)，艱難處境迫使挪航壓縮規(guī)模，把精力集中在核心航線上并砍掉那些邊緣性航線。

弗吉尼亞州的一位IT顧問(wèn)喬伊·道森本應(yīng)乘坐波音737 Max從紐約州波基普西市附近的斯圖爾特機(jī)場(chǎng)飛往冰島西海岸的香農(nóng)。他要和兩位朋友去溫泉度假，他們都剛從大學(xué)畢業(yè)。

現(xiàn)在挪航暫時(shí)停飛了這條航線以及另一條飛往愛(ài)爾蘭科克的航線。作為替代，該公司將用更大的波音737-800將乘客送到都柏林。

挪航發(fā)言人菲利普·奧爾博斯說(shuō)：“我們已經(jīng)為大多數(shù)受影響的人找到了解決方案?！?/p>

可以預(yù)見(jiàn)，今年夏天挪航要給乘客一大筆補(bǔ)償金，無(wú)論是退票，還是像道森那樣由挪航購(gòu)買從都柏林到香農(nóng)的火車票。

挪航的首席執(zhí)行官比約恩·肖斯已經(jīng)表示將要求波音承擔(dān)這筆開支。去年挪航曾因航班延誤成功拿到了發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)制造商羅爾斯·羅伊斯的賠款，但未披露具體數(shù)額。

波音要為737 Max接二連三地發(fā)布令人尷尬的公告，挪航則似乎躲開了公關(guān)危機(jī)。

道森說(shuō)：“這是個(gè)悲劇，我實(shí)在不能責(zé)怪這家航空公司。這很不方便……但不方便也比有人喪命強(qiáng)?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Norwegian expects its shiny new Boeings to be idle at least through mid-August, meaning the jets will sit out almost all of the vital summer season, costing the airline up to 500 million Norwegian kroner or some $57 million.

A surprising upside

But the grounding of the 737 Max has also had surprising upsides for Norwegian. Most importantly, it has allowed it to escape the full consequences of its past over-expansion. Two weeks ago, the airline persuaded Boeing to defer delivery of 14 new MAXes it was due to receive in 2020 and 2021. Together with another deferment agreement Norwegian struck with Airbus in April, Norwegian has now saved itself some $2.1 billion in capital expenditures that it could hardly have afforded otherwise, according to Chief Financial Officer Geir Karlsen.

Even better, the MAX’s troubles mean that Boeing’s other customers—notably those in fast-growing emerging markets—are now willing to pay more to get their hands on the Airbus 320s and 321s that Norwegian rashly ordered in years gone by. Karlsen said last September that virtually all of the 90 Airbus planes it had ordered were essentially up for sale. He told investors two weeks ago that there is “no doubt” that the value of Norwegian’s Airbus orders had risen recently due to the MAX situation.

And the company has enjoyed some luck at the expense of a few competitors: Permira and Iceland-based Wow Air went bust, and the Scandinavian flag carrier SAS has been disrupted by strike action—events that allowed Norwegian to pick up passengers.

Rumors of a sale

Whether that will be enough to embolden possible buyers for the airline is another question. It’s now trading at less than half of what International Consolidated Airlines Group, the parent of British Airways and Iberia, offered to pay for it last year. IAG CEO Willie Walsh walked away from a deal rather than get drawn into a bidding war, but said in March he would “never say never” about looking at the company again.

The chance of a bidding war appeared to recede on Tuesday, as Germany’s Lufthansa, which had also been a rumored buyer, chose to make a move for the airline business of U.K.-based tour operator Thomas Cook instead.

On Friday, IAG reported its first-quarter earnings, with Walsh repeating on a conference call with analysts that the company was not on his radar. “We’re not looking at it (Norwegian) and we’re not intending to do anything…I’m ruling it out, at this stage,” he said.

On-going disruption

In the meantime, hardship has forced Norwegian to be more nimble, concentrating on its core routes and cutting more marginal ones.

Joey Dawson, an IT consultant from Virginia, had been due to fly a 737 MAX from Stewart airport near Poughkeepsie, N.Y., to Shannon on the west coast of Ireland for a spring getaway with two friends, all of them recent college grads.

The airline has now suspended that service, and another one to Cork, and will instead use a larger Boeing 737-800 to fly passengers to Dublin.

“For the majority of people affected, we’ve found a solution,” company spokesman Philip Allports said.

The airline can expect a hefty check for compensating passengers this summer, whether through ticket refunds or, as in Dawson’s case, paying out the cost of a train from Dublin to the original destination of Shannon.

Norwegian CEO Bjorn Kjos has vowed to pass the bill on to Boeing, having succeeded last year in extracting an undisclosed amount of compensation for flight delays from engine maker Rolls-Royce.

And while Boeing stumbles from one embarrassing disclosure to the next over the 737 MAX, Norwegian seems set to escape the public relations fallout.

“I don’t really blame the airline because it’s a tragic event,” says Dawson. “It’s inconvenient…but there’s a point when inconvenience is better than people losing their lives.”