4月中旬，娛樂(lè)巨頭迪士尼舉辦了一場(chǎng)投資發(fā)布會(huì)，向投資界展示實(shí)力，他們把位于加利福尼亞伯班克巨大的2號(hào)錄音棚（Soundstage 2）改成了一個(gè)為知識(shí)工作者設(shè)計(jì)的禮堂，《歡樂(lè)滿人間》（Mary Poppins）和《加勒比海盜》（Pirates of the Caribbean）就是在這里誕生的。發(fā)布會(huì)以一個(gè)短片開場(chǎng)，迪士尼把它幾十年來(lái)的電影電視劇以及21世紀(jì)福克斯（它最近以710億美元完成了收購(gòu)）的片子剪輯在一起，讓華爾街人看得入了迷。紀(jì)錄片《徒手攀巖》（Free Solo）里一個(gè)戲劇性的鏡頭構(gòu)成了這個(gè)視頻的重頭戲——該片由曾隸屬于?？怂沟膰?guó)家地理拍攝：充滿英雄氣概的亞歷克斯·霍諾爾德徒手攀在巖壁上，另外一位登山者吟誦道：“各行各業(yè)都在慢慢累積進(jìn)步。但每隔一段時(shí)間，就會(huì)出現(xiàn)這樣標(biāo)志性的飛躍?！?/p>

迪士尼的動(dòng)作不是一小步。迪士尼正在精心策劃瞄準(zhǔn)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)流媒體市場(chǎng)的大跨步，在提供新產(chǎn)品的同時(shí)也因?yàn)橐录苣物w（Netflix）等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)平臺(tái)上迪士尼的內(nèi)容放棄了每年幾十億美元的收入。對(duì)于任何一家大公司而言，都可以稱得上是多年來(lái)最大膽的嘗試——一家預(yù)計(jì)在2019財(cái)年收入720億美元的企業(yè)要轉(zhuǎn)換商業(yè)模式。

這些細(xì)節(jié)讓投資者驚嘆不已，他們?cè)诨顒?dòng)結(jié)束后的幾天內(nèi)將迪士尼股價(jià)推高了13％。該公司的新服務(wù)“迪士尼+”將于11月12日在美國(guó)推出。這項(xiàng)服務(wù)將向用戶打包提供迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威、盧卡斯電影和國(guó)家地理旗下浩如煙海的視頻內(nèi)容，月度訂閱價(jià)僅需7美元——奈飛月費(fèi)的一半——或者每年70美元。迪士尼預(yù)計(jì)五年內(nèi)將擁有6000萬(wàn)到9000萬(wàn)用戶，其中三分之二來(lái)自國(guó)外。長(zhǎng)期擔(dān)任迪士尼首席執(zhí)行官卻出人意料地宣布將在2021年底合同到期時(shí)辭職的羅伯特·艾格吹噓道，“沒有哪個(gè)平臺(tái)的內(nèi)容或哪家科技公司可以媲美”擁有《白雪公主》（Snow White）、《星球大戰(zhàn)》（Star Wars）全系列電影和30季《辛普森一家人》（The Simpsons）在內(nèi)的資源。

迪士尼的這種行為十分大膽，代價(jià)也很高。如果從競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的平臺(tái)上下架迪士尼的內(nèi)容，該公司將立即減少25億美元的收入。經(jīng)紀(jì)公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的分析師托德·尤恩格認(rèn)為，代價(jià)其實(shí)更大。他估計(jì)合并后的迪士尼和?？怂姑磕晗虬物w等平臺(tái)收取的特許使用費(fèi)能高達(dá)80億美元，迪士尼最終將告別所有此類收入。尤恩格還擔(dān)心，與源源不斷產(chǎn)生新內(nèi)容的奈飛相比，迪士尼也會(huì)在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域受挫。他說(shuō)：“應(yīng)該不會(huì)有網(wǎng)站專門討論‘本周在迪士尼+上可以觀看哪些新內(nèi)容'?！?/p>

On the mid-April day that Disney hosted a show-of-force presentation for investment analysts, the entertainment giant converted its cavernous Soundstage 2 in Burbank, Calif., where Mary Poppins and Pirates of the Caribbean came to life, into an auditorium for knowledge workers. Wall Street types sat rapt as Disney opened with a video splicing its decades-old film and TV library with that of 21st Century Fox, recently acquired for $71 billion. The key dramatic moment: a shot from the stunning rock climbing documentary Free Solo—from formerly Fox-owned National Geographic—with the heroic Alex Honnold perched untethered on the rock face, another climber intoning: “There’s incremental advances that happen in all kinds of things. But every once in a while, there’s just this iconic leap.”

Subtle, it wasn’t. Disney is taking a meticulously planned leap itself into the market for Internet video streaming, simultaneously offering new products while forgoing billions of dollars in revenue by removing its content from rival entertainment platforms like Netflix. It is easily the boldest attempt in years by any established behemoth to shift its business model while operating an enterprise that’s forecast to bring in $72 billion in fiscal year 2019.

The particulars wowed investors, who bid up Disney’s shares 13% in the days after the event. Its new service, Disney+, debuts Nov. 12 in the U.S. It will offer the prodigious libraries of its Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, and National Geographic brands in one bundled service for $7 a month—half Netflix’s subscription price—or $70 a year. And Disney projected 60 million to 90 million subscribers in five years, two-thirds from outside the U.S. Longtime Disney CEO Robert Iger, who unexpectedly avowed he’ll step down when his contract expires in late 2021, bragged that “no content or technology company can rival” a catalog that includes Snow White, every Star Wars movie, and 30 seasons of The Simpsons.

Disney’s move is bold—and costly. It will immediately forgo $2.5 billion in revenue by removing Disney content from rival services. Todd Juenger, an analyst with brokerage Bernstein, reckons the pain will be bigger. He estimates the combined Disney and Fox collect up to $8 billion annually from licensing revenue, including from Netflix, and that Disney will eventually say goodbye to all of it. Juenger also frets that Disney will suffer by comparison with Netflix’s constant influx of new material. “We don’t think there will be any websites dedicated to ‘What’s new to watch on Disney+ this week,’?” he says.

迪士尼開場(chǎng)的定價(jià)策略讓人震驚。獨(dú)立研究公司BTIG的分析師理查德·格林菲爾德認(rèn)為這是個(gè)錯(cuò)誤的定價(jià)。按照打折后的全年訂閱價(jià)來(lái)算，格林菲爾德估計(jì)迪士尼每個(gè)訂閱用戶貢獻(xiàn)的收入約為6.25美元。“這個(gè)價(jià)位上很難賺到錢”，他總結(jié)道。

也有人懷疑，認(rèn)為迪士尼的低價(jià)戰(zhàn)略不會(huì)持續(xù)太久，而且該公司同時(shí)能利用的財(cái)務(wù)杠桿還有好幾個(gè)。迪士尼+只是其新戰(zhàn)略的一部分。收購(gòu)?？怂购螅鲜磕峋蛽碛辛苏诳焖僭鲩L(zhǎng)的Hulu流媒體平臺(tái)，Hulu主要通過(guò)廣告和訂閱賺錢。此外，迪士尼的ESPN體育有線節(jié)目電視網(wǎng)也正在經(jīng)營(yíng)同樣雄心勃勃的流媒體服務(wù)。 更何況，迪士尼也沒打算停止從它最寶貴的資產(chǎn)中創(chuàng)造流媒體以外的營(yíng)收——該公司大部分影片的首映仍將在院線推出。

每個(gè)關(guān)注即將開啟的流媒體混戰(zhàn)的人都明白，消費(fèi)者會(huì)在某個(gè)時(shí)刻出現(xiàn)“訂閱疲勞”。亞馬遜的Prime Video、蘋果即將推出的Apple+服務(wù)、奈飛以及康卡斯特（Comcast）的NBC Universal和AT＆T旗下華納媒體（WarnerMedia）可能推出的產(chǎn)品將挑戰(zhàn)大部分追劇狂的容忍度。對(duì)于還沒切斷電視線的人來(lái)說(shuō)，除了有線電視和衛(wèi)星電視賬單，他們要面臨的還包括這些平臺(tái)的賬單。

從迪士尼的角度來(lái)看，它將最大程度地確保他們的平臺(tái)能夠成為用戶的選擇。三個(gè)半小時(shí)的活動(dòng)接近尾聲時(shí)，迪士尼+的市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷主管瑞奇·斯特勞斯告訴投資者：“對(duì)于迪士尼而言，沒有哪項(xiàng)工作的優(yōu)先級(jí)比這個(gè)更靠前?！?他說(shuō)，該公司將利用旗下的主題公園、游輪、廣播網(wǎng)絡(luò)以及社交媒體和付費(fèi)廣告來(lái)推廣迪士尼+。

畢竟，這個(gè)已經(jīng)有96年歷史的業(yè)內(nèi)標(biāo)桿可不想在沒有安全網(wǎng)的情況下大膽嘗試壯舉。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文另一版本以《迪斯尼的最新大片不在電影院里》刊載于2019年5月的《財(cái)富》雜志上。

譯者：Agatha

Disney’s opening pricing gambit was shocking. Richard Greenfield, an analyst with independent research firm BTIG, thinks Disney made a mistake. Given the discounted annual price, Greenfield estimates Disney’s per-user revenue will be about $6.25. “It’s tough to make money at that level,” he concludes.

Cynics assume Disney’s rock-bottom price won’t last, and the company has more than a few financial levers to pull in the meantime. Disney+ is just part of its new strategy. The Fox acquisition gives Disney control of the rapidly growing Hulu streaming service, which makes money from ads and subscriptions, to add to the similarly ambitious streaming service run by Disney’s ESPN sports franchise. Disney also has no plans to stop collecting non-streaming revenue from its biggest properties, most of which will continue to debut in movie theaters.

Everyone watching the upcoming streaming fracas understands that at some point consumer “subscription fatigue” will set in. Amazon’s Prime Video, Apple’s upcoming Apple+ service, Netflix, and expected offerings from Comcast’s NBCUniversal and AT&T-owned ?WarnerMedia will all test the tolerance of the most avowed binge-watcher. That’s on top of cable and satellite bill s for those who haven’t yet cut the cord.

For its part, Disney will apply maximum pressure to ensure its services are among those users choose. “There is no bigger priority for the Walt Disney Company going forward,” Ricky Strauss, head of marketing for Disney+, told investors near the end of the three-and-a-half-hour event. The company, he said, will push Disney+ in its theme parks, on its cruises, across its broadcast networks, and through social media and paid advertising.

After all, the 96-year-old industry icon has no intention of attempting a daring feat without a safety net.

A version of this article appears in the May 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline, “Disney’s Latest Blockbuster Isn’t in Theaters.”