2018年，在大多時候，人們都會覺得無法預(yù)測隨后24小時的情況，更不用說一整年。某幾天的新聞夠看上一個星期；商業(yè)和政治領(lǐng)域在某幾個月出現(xiàn)的變化比過去幾年都大。別以為2019年的情況會有什么不同。但大家一定要知道，雖然世界正在發(fā)生巨變，但以往的一些經(jīng)驗仍然可靠，屏蔽掉噪音就行。在此，《財富》雜志內(nèi)部專家將為大家介紹明年可能出現(xiàn)的最重要的顛覆、創(chuàng)新和機遇。

For much of 2018, Predicting the events of the next 24 hours—never mind a full 365 days—has felt impossible. Some days have contained a week’s worth of headlines; some months have contained more changes to the worlds of business and politics than an entire calendar of years past. Don’t expect 2019 to be any different. But do understand that while the world is changing in fundamental ways, some old lessons still hold true. Just tune out the noise. Here, Fortune’s in-house experts guide you through the biggest disruptions, innovations, and opportunities that are likely to present themselves next year.

1.（勉強）交易的藝術(shù)

隨著經(jīng)濟災(zāi)難的真實風(fēng)險讓人們變得清醒起來，過去兩年出現(xiàn)的許多全球性危機都將在一定程度上被實用主義化解。

1. The Art of the (Reluctant) Deal

Many of the global crises that emerged in the past two years will be partially solved by pragmatism, as the real risk of economic catastrophe serves as a wake-up call.

美國國會重新開始運轉(zhuǎn)

擺脫了共和黨自由黨團的干擾后，眾議院開始就一些早該處理而且有普遍基礎(chǔ)的法案進(jìn)行投票。參議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖米奇·麥康奈爾這兩年一直忙于把保守派法官塞進(jìn)聯(lián)邦法院，隨后他將和眾議院議長南茜·佩洛希一起處理開支、農(nóng)業(yè)和移民改革事務(wù)以及特朗普總統(tǒng)期待已久的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施法案。預(yù)計佩洛希將在美墨邊境“建墻”問題上做出表面上的讓步，以便相關(guān)法案順利通過。

英國脫歐變得更加混亂

盡管談判了兩年，3月份英國脫歐最終期限到來時雙方將無法達(dá)成全面協(xié)議。在邊緣政策博弈中，由于可能影響全球金融市場穩(wěn)定，雙方將退而求其次，敲定一份只涵蓋最基本問題的干巴巴的協(xié)議，包括英國和北愛爾蘭的邊界問題以及在英國居住的歐盟公民的工作權(quán)。雖然遭到本黨極右翼人士的反對，但特蕾莎·梅將在工黨幫助下贏得議會投票。所有的二次公投期望都會破滅。

沙特王儲度過危機

由于記者賈邁勒·卡舒吉被害而面臨國際壓力的沙特王儲穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼將被他的父親，薩勒曼國王“剪掉翅膀”，但會保住王儲之位。他的職責(zé)會被削減，失去外交和國防事務(wù)主導(dǎo)權(quán)，直到卡舒吉事件淡出人們的視線。相應(yīng)的，這位王儲的工作重點將轉(zhuǎn)向國內(nèi)政策和經(jīng)濟。

奧巴馬醫(yī)改帶來利潤

盡管共和黨廢除了全民參保條款，但在奧巴馬醫(yī)改的最后一年，有近1200萬美國人參加了個人醫(yī)保。撇開政治紛爭不談，Centene等保險公司在整個市場穩(wěn)定后借此項法案賺了大錢。2019年Centene將在20個州推出平價醫(yī)療保險；保險巨頭信諾將擴大奧巴馬醫(yī)改業(yè)務(wù)的覆蓋范圍；Oscar Health等比較年輕的公司在此項業(yè)務(wù)上的投入將增長一倍，因為它們嗅到了持續(xù)盈利的機會。

長期主義

2019年最熱門的資產(chǎn)將是可持續(xù)投資類資產(chǎn)。在貝萊德公司CEO拉里·芬克和注重目標(biāo)的億萬富翁們帶領(lǐng)下，社會責(zé)任型公司和秉承長期主義的金融系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展勢頭將不斷加快。其結(jié)果是到明年底，專業(yè)人士管理的資產(chǎn)中將有40%投入到和環(huán)境、社會以及公司治理（ESG）有關(guān)的領(lǐng)域，高于2018年年初的26%.

羅馬求上門

全球經(jīng)濟剛剛開始滑坡，意大利就出現(xiàn)了2.3萬億歐元債務(wù)以及債務(wù)失控后的螺旋上升趨勢。對歐元集團來說，意大利經(jīng)濟體系的衰敗甚至比希臘的還難以置信。歐元集團將同意在意大利重組債務(wù)后提供援助。

貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)局勢先惡化后好轉(zhuǎn)

中美貿(mào)易摩擦繼續(xù)升級，造成2019年美國GDP增速降至2.75%。遭受重創(chuàng)的小企業(yè)和農(nóng)民以及即將到來的2020年美國大選讓雙方坐到了談判桌前并相互妥協(xié)。特朗普將把解決自己制造出來的問題稱作政治勝利。

機遇之地

機遇地帶投資被稱為“有史以來最不可思議的減稅措施”，它允許富有的個人或投資公司將資金投入8700個欠缺服務(wù)的社區(qū)，也就是“機遇地帶”，從而爭取免稅待遇。2019年最有投資吸引力的城市包括底特律、洛杉磯和亞特蘭大。預(yù)計今后幾年這些地區(qū)的房價將上漲，并將出現(xiàn)新的就業(yè)機會和新公司。

Congress Starts Legislating Again

A House freed from the demands of the Freedom Caucus starts voting on some long-overdue common-ground legislation. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell—who for the past two years has focused his efforts on packing federal courts with conservative judges—works with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on spending, a farm bill, immigration reform, and an infrastructure bill that President Trump has long wanted to see on his desk. Expect a nominal concession from Pelosi on building “the wall” on the Mexican border to grease the wheels.

Brexit Gets Messier

Despite two years of negotiations, March’s Brexit deadline will approach with no comprehensive deal in sight. In a game of brinkmanship, with the stability of global financial markets at stake, both sides concede to a bare-bones deal that will cover only the most basic issues at stake, such as the border with Northern Ireland and the right to work for EU nationals living in the U.K. Despite a revolt from the right-most fringes of her party, Theresa May will win a parliamentary vote with help from the Labour Party. Any hopes for a second referendum are dashed.

MBS Rides It Out

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—facing international pressure over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi—will have his wings clipped by his father, King Salman, but will retain his position in the line of succession. His portfolio will be cut—he’ll have to take a back seat on foreign relations and defense until the Khashoggi heat dies down—and he’ll instead focus on domestic policy and economic matters.

Obamacare Plans Turn a Profit

Nearly 12 million Americans signed up for individual health plans through Obamacare last year, despite the GOP’s repeal of its requirement that everyone carry insurance. Insurers like Centene have been making big money off the health law as the overall market stabilizes, political bedlam aside. The company is offering ACA coverage in 20 states in 2019; insurance giant Cigna is expanding its Obamacare footprint; and newer firms like Oscar Health are doubling down on coverage offerings as they smell continued profit opportunity in the air.

Long-termism

The hottest assets in 2019 will be sustainably invested ones. The charge, led by Black-Rock’s Larry Fink and purpose-minded millennials, for socially responsible companies and a financial system imbued with long-termism will continue to pick up speed. The result will be 40% of professionally managed assets being invested with consideration of ESG (environmental, social, and governance) factors by the end of next year, up from 26% at the start of 2018.

Rome Comes Begging

2.3 trillion euros and rising—spirals out of control at the first whiff of a global downturn. The fall of the Italian economic system is even more unthinkable to the Eurogroup than Greece’s, and it agrees to a bailout package after Italy restructures its debt.

Trade War Gets Worse, Then Gets Better

Trade tensions between China and the U.S. continue to escalate, slowing U.S. GDP growth to 2.75% for the year. Hard-hit small businesses and farmers and the looming 2020 U.S. presidential election bring the two sides to the negotiating table, and a compromise is struck. Trump will claim a political victory in solving a problem of his own creation.

Land of Opportunity

Opportunity Zone investing—called “the most unbelievable tax break ever”—allows wealthy individuals or investment firms to park their money in any of the 8,700 underserved communities designated as “opportunity zones” for a chance to erase tax obligations. The most alluring cities for investment in 2019 will include Detroit, Los Angeles, and Atlanta. Look to these areas for higher home prices, job creation, and business launches in the next several years.

特朗普的女性對手

Women Take on Trump

女性浪潮仍將繼續(xù)涌動，爭奪總統(tǒng)候選人位置的女性民主黨人士將超過男性。預(yù)計參與爭奪的有參議員卡瑪拉·哈里斯、伊麗莎白·沃倫和克里斯汀·吉利布蘭德，以及來自夏威夷的眾議員圖爾西·賈巴德。前代理司法部長薩利·耶茨也可能加入其中，奧普拉·溫弗瑞則將退出。

The Women’s Wave will continue, and more women than men will run for the Democratic nomination for President. Expect Senators Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Kirsten Gillibrand to be in the mix, as well as Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. An outside run from former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates is in the offing, but Oprah Winfrey will decline.

每桶80美元

2019年年底油價：經(jīng)濟增速可能放慢，但仍足以推動油價升至高于當(dāng)前價格的水平。美國許多頁巖油公司都會松一口氣，因為他們的收支平衡成本可能高達(dá)每桶60美元。

2750點

2019年底標(biāo)普500指數(shù)點位：貿(mào)易摩擦和通脹擔(dān)憂將引發(fā)多次恐慌性離場，隨后市場將反彈，最終美股指數(shù)將略低于目前的水平。

3%

美國聯(lián)邦基金利率：就算經(jīng)濟增速放慢，美聯(lián)儲仍將在今后12個月內(nèi)加息三次，從而使基準(zhǔn)利率達(dá)到2008年年初時的水平。

$80

Price of a barrel of oil at the end of 2019:Economic growth may slow, but it will be strong enough to push oil prices higher than current levels. That will be a relief for many U.S. shale producers, whose break-even costs can be as high as $60 a barrel.

2,750

S&P 500 at the end of 2019: Trade tensions and fears of inflation will prompt multiple freak-outs, ?followed by rallies that leave U.S. stock indexes slightly lower than they stand today.

3%

Federal funds rate: Even as economic growth cools, the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate three times in the next 12 months, to a level last seen in early 2008.

?

1.5%

美國房價增幅：

過去10年，有房一族在很長一段時間里都習(xí)慣于每年5%-7%的房產(chǎn)升值速度。但我們預(yù)計2019年房價漲幅將比沙錢還要平，這要歸咎于抵押貸款成本和房價承受能力。

1.5%

Growth in U.S. home prices:

Homeowners got accustomed to appreciation of 5% to 7% a year for much of this decade. But look for average prices to get flatter than a sand dollar in 2019. The culprits: mortgage costs and affordability.

2. 豆豆城風(fēng)光無限，蘋果拿下艾美獎

2019年我們將關(guān)注的人和事。

2. Beantown Booms, and Apple Wins an Emmy

Who and what we’ll be watching in 2019.

波士頓挺進(jìn)決賽

星光四溢的波士頓競技隊伍將分別進(jìn)入美國職業(yè)橄欖球大聯(lián)盟（NFL）、美國男子職業(yè)籃球聯(lián)賽（NBA）和美國職業(yè)棒球大聯(lián)盟（MLB）決賽。新英格蘭愛國者隊將在第53屆超級碗上遭遇明尼蘇達(dá)維京人（去年我們也是這么預(yù)測的，但今年我們很有信心）。狀態(tài)火熱的紅襪隊將把他們在世界大賽（即MLB總冠軍賽）上的連勝勢頭延續(xù)到下個賽季，這要歸功于他們的一批年輕天才球員。他們將面對國家聯(lián)盟黑馬米爾沃基釀酒人隊。勒布朗·詹姆斯離開東區(qū)后，波士頓凱爾特人隊終于打開了通往NAB總決賽的通道，但他們還得面對史上最為強大的金州勇士隊。

流媒體戰(zhàn)爭新前線

現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)是電視的黃金時代。接下來會是什么？白金時代嗎？2019年，電視迷終于可以享受蘋果公司帶來的新福利了，作為iPhone的制造商，蘋果資金充裕的視頻業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)上線（最新傳聞是對蘋果設(shè)備用戶免費）。這個消息的爆炸性不如蘋果在內(nèi)容領(lǐng)域的上一次嘗試，也就是“App之戰(zhàn)”，前提是沒有瑞茜·威瑟斯彭、史蒂文·斯皮爾伯格、達(dá)米恩·查澤雷等一眾好萊塢天才參與的話。但我們認(rèn)為不會出現(xiàn)和《權(quán)力的游戲》同等水平的大作。喬布斯打造的這家公司將嚴(yán)守PG-13級（即13歲以下慎看）紅線。

電競賽事登陸黃金時段，但不會超過板球

2018年的英雄聯(lián)盟季中冠軍賽觀看人數(shù)達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的6000萬人次。2019年，預(yù)計英雄聯(lián)盟全球總決賽將吸引逾1億觀眾。足球方面，美國女足的人氣和成績將讓女足世界杯全球觀賽人數(shù)突破8億。但和板球世界杯相比，這兩個數(shù)字都是小巫見大巫。雖然不是美國的熱門項目，但明年的板球世界杯觀看人數(shù)仍將高達(dá)20億。

Boston in the Finals

The stars will align for Boston as its NFL, NBA, and MLB teams each make their respective finals. The New England Patriots will meet the Vikings in Super Bowl LIII. (We made the same prediction last year, but we’re sure of it this time.) The red-hot Red Sox will carry their World Series–winning ways into next season, thanks to their talented young roster. They’ll face the Milwaukee Brewers who are the surprise package of the National League. With LeBron James out of the East, the Boston Celtics finally have a route to the NBA Finals, but they’ll have to face a Golden State Warriors team who are stronger than they’ve ever been.

A New Front in the Streaming Wars

We’re already in the Golden Age of Television. What comes next? The Platinum Age? In 2019, TV lovers will finally get the added benefit of Apple’s beneficence, as the iPhone maker’s well-funded video service arrives (for free to Apple device owners, according to the latest rumors). And this won’t bomb like Apple’s last attempt at content, “Battle of the Apps.” Not with Reese Witherspoon, Steven Spielberg, Damien Chazelle, and a bevy of other Hollywood talent on board. But don’t expect any Game of Thrones–level gore. It’s strictly PG-13 fare at the House that Jobs built.

E-sport Viewership Goes Prime Time But Won’t Beat Out Cricket

A record-breaking 60 million people watched the League of Legends Mid-Season Invitational finals match this year. In 2019, expect the League of Legends World Championship to garner over 100 million viewers. In soccer, the popularity and success of the U.S. women’s national team will push global Women’s World Cup viewership over 800 million. But both will pale in comparison to the Cricket World Cup, which, while not a big draw in the States, will see a massive 2 billion viewers next year.

新星

Rising Stars

哈?！っ鞴?/strong>

Hasan Minahj

Comedian

Netflix made a 32-?episode order for Daily Show–alum Minhaj’s Patriot Act, which debuted Oct. 28 and will run well into 2019.

Lizzo

歌手

我們將聽到Lizzo的首張專輯，她會通過音樂和社交媒體來倡導(dǎo)多樣性以及電臀舞。

Lizzo

Musician

We’ll be listening to the debut album from Lizzo, who celebrates diversity—and twerking—through her music and social media.

梅納·馬蘇德

演員

這位加拿大演員一直很低調(diào)。但在2019年，隨著迪士尼制作的真人版《阿拉丁》的上映，他將名聲大振。

Mena Massoud

Actor

This Canadian actor has been flying under the radar, but in 2019, he will be everywhere as Aladdin in Disney’s live-action remake.

馬洛里·皮尤

足球運動員

在2019年的女足世界杯上，大家可以關(guān)注一下20歲的皮尤，她在美國隊司職前鋒，捕捉戰(zhàn)機的感覺極佳。

Mallory Pugh

Soccer Player

Keep an eye out for 20-year-old goal-?scoring sensation Pugh on the front line of the U.S. team in 2019’s Women’s World Cup.

3. 科技界的新一年

亞馬遜在另一個新行業(yè)中取得成功，埃隆·馬斯克兌現(xiàn)諾言，唯獨第一批5G手機令人失望。

3. The Year Ahead in Tech

Amazon succeeds in yet another industry, Elon Musk delivers on a promise, while the first wave of 5G phones disappoint.

5G手機未能引燃熱情

它們會有溫暖的手感，而且能在幾秒鐘內(nèi)下載最新的蜘蛛俠電影。但真的有人想用2019年出現(xiàn)的新式5G手機嗎？就像前幾代無線技術(shù)剛剛出現(xiàn)時一樣，最先運用5G技術(shù)的公司將受到電池壽命短和信號差的困擾。大家最好等一等。據(jù)說首部5G的iPhone手機將在2020年年底問世。

特斯拉交付售價3.5萬美元的轎車

Model 3以廉價版特斯拉轎車的姿態(tài)出現(xiàn)——埃隆·馬斯克宣稱某款Model 3的售價最終將為3.5萬美元（包括退稅）。但高端Model 3層出不窮的制造問題推遲了后驅(qū)基本款的上市時間。生產(chǎn)問題不會在一夜間消失，但將在2019年得到緩解，首批定價約3.5萬美元的Model 3也將交到那些幸運買家的手中。

亞馬遜挑戰(zhàn)谷歌和Facebook

全球兩大廣告公司Facebook和谷歌將迎來亞馬遜這個強有力的對手——研究機構(gòu)eMarketer指出，亞馬遜的在線廣告平臺正在“飛速增長”。目前亞馬遜占美國在線廣告市場的4.2%（Facebook和谷歌的市場份額之和為58%），但到2019年年底，這個數(shù)字預(yù)計將翻番。

人們開始關(guān)心個人數(shù)據(jù)

沒錯，公司、竊賊和間諜都隱藏在大家的數(shù)據(jù)中。但你可以就此采取行動。2019年，消費者將開始用腳投票。不光是隱私高手，普通人也將使用廣告屏蔽工具、VPN、計算機攝像頭鎖閉工具、加密和密碼管理器。購買新玩具時，你會突然問道：怎么有人在利用，或者濫用我的數(shù)據(jù)？

5G Phones Fail to Ignite

They’ll be warm to the touch and download the latest Spider-Man movie in seconds. But will anybody actually want one of the new 5G-capable smartphones arriving in 2019? As with the debut of previous-generation wireless technology, early 5G adopters will be punished with short battery life and iffy reception. Better to wait it out. The first 5G iPhone is rumored for late 2020.

Tesla Delivers a $35,000 Car

The Model 3 was introduced as the so-called cheap Tesla with Elon Musk claiming a version would eventually be available for $35,000 (after tax credits). But persistent manufacturing problems blighting the upper-level Model 3 have delayed the rollout of the base rear-wheel-drive edition. Those production issues won’t disappear overnight, but they will be mitigated in 2019, and the first Teslas priced around $35,000 will be delivered to a lucky few customers.

Amazon Comes For Google And Facebook

The world’s biggest advertising companies, Facebook and Google, face a worthy adversary in Amazon whose online advertisement platform is undergoing a “meteoric rise,” according to research firm eMarketer. Amazon now represents 4.2% of the U.S. online advertising market (compared with 58% combined for Facebook and Google), but expect that to double by the end of the year.

People Start Caring About Their Data

Corporations, thieves, and spies are aslosh in your data, yes. But there is something you can do about it. 2019 is the year consumers begin to vote with their feet. Regular folks—not just privacy nuts—will adopt ad blockers, VPNs, computer webcam shutters, encryption, and password managers. Suddenly, when purchasing a new toy, you will ask: How am I being digitally used—or abused?

叫車服務(wù)領(lǐng)跑者上市

The Ride-hailing Front-runner Go Public

Uber和Lyft的IPO備受期待，兩家公司也為此你爭我奪，它們得努力工作，才能爭取到購買其股票的投資者。兩公司均尚未盈利——實際上，它們已經(jīng)虧損好幾年了。我們預(yù)計二者上市的情況不同——投資者對Uber的IPO將不太感冒，因為股價高而且Uber經(jīng)常引發(fā)爭議。同時，他們將把Lyft視為有吸引力的標(biāo)的，原因是該公司正從比自己大得多的對手，也就是Uber的手中穩(wěn)步奪取市場份額，同時擁有從較低基數(shù)起步并迅速在整個美國快速擴張的潛力。

As Uber and Lyft race to much-anticipated IPOs, they’ll have to work hard to sufficiently woo investors to own a piece of their business. Neither company has turned a profit—indeed, both have been losing money for years. But expect divergent outcomes: Investors will greet Uber’s IPO with a shrug owing to its high price and the company’s penchant for controversy. Meanwhile, Lyft will be viewed as an attractive proposition because of its steady gain of market share from its much-larger rival as well as its potential for rapid growth across the country from a smaller base.

脫離固網(wǎng)的現(xiàn)象正從有線電視延伸到有線網(wǎng)絡(luò)。完全依靠移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的人群所占的比重已從2013年的8%升至20%，固網(wǎng)用戶占比則從70%降至65%。隨著無線網(wǎng)絡(luò)繼續(xù)提速，家庭固網(wǎng)在人們眼中可能很快就會變得和座機一樣過時。

Cord cutting is spreading beyond cable TV to wired Internet connections. The percentage of people relying solely on cellular Internet has risen to 20% from 8% in 2013 while the percentage with a wired Internet connection dropped to 65% from 70%. With faster wireless on the way, that home Internet line may soon seem as outdated as a pay phone.

4. 新橙則靈

放在Instagram上夠顯眼而且口味復(fù)雜，橙色葡萄酒將在2019年贏得飲酒者的青睞。

近幾年桃紅葡萄酒一直是葡萄酒界最熱門（只是已經(jīng)降溫）的趨勢。它還沒有出現(xiàn)失勢跡象，因為大多數(shù)預(yù)測都認(rèn)為今后四年桃紅葡萄酒的增長率將在1.5%到2%之間。即便如此，大家也都在尋找下一款桃紅葡萄酒。我們預(yù)計2019年富含單寧的橙色葡萄酒將開始流行起來。這種葡萄酒并非桔子釀制，它的名字有點兒誤導(dǎo)性，其釀造原料是發(fā)酵時破皮較晚的白葡萄。由于受到侍酒師和品酒行家的喜愛，橙色葡萄酒不斷登陸美國各大城市的葡萄酒名錄。

4. Orange is the New Rosé

Eminently Instagrammable and complex in taste, orange wines will win over drinkers in 2019.

Rosé has been the hottest (albeit chilled) wine trend over the past few years, with no sign of cooling off as most estimates predict pink wine to grow between 1.5% and 2% over the next four years. Even so, everyone is looking for the next rosé. In 2019, expect to be uncorking a bottle of tannin-rich orange wine. No, it’s not made from oranges. A bit of a misnomer, orange wines are made from white varietal grapes that keep their skins on longer during fermentation. They’ve been popping up on wine lists in major cities nationwide as they become favorites with sommeliers and oenophiles alike.

并購

2007年開業(yè)以來，快餐休閑食品連鎖店Sweetgreen一直很風(fēng)光，目前已經(jīng)開店75家，同時獲得了近3.29億美元風(fēng)投資金。隨著上市傳聞的出現(xiàn)，這家公司可能還有一條繼續(xù)擴張的渠道，那就是讓一個規(guī)模遠(yuǎn)超自己的品牌實施善意收購?？紤]一下Chipotle吧。兩家連鎖機構(gòu)都為自己采購當(dāng)?shù)嘏腼冊隙械阶院?，而且都在迅速進(jìn)行全國性擴張，并推出據(jù)稱健康的快餐。墨西哥菜連鎖Chipotle幾年前曾因不斷出現(xiàn)食品安全事故而陷入困境。雙方合并可以讓Chipotle改頭換面（并擁有新的收入來源），同時讓Sweetgreen拿到成為沙拉界星巴克所需的資金。

Mergers

Sweetgreen has been on a tear since launching in 2007, with 75 locations and nearly $329 million in VC money raised to date. With murmurs of an IPO on the horizon, there could be another path to wider expansion: a friendly acquisition by a much larger brand. Consider Chipotle. Both chains pride themselves on locavore ingredient sourcing. And both have expanded nationally at a rapid clip while slinging fast food touted to be healthy. Chipotle has had a rough go of it the past few years, plagued by food safety incidents. A merger could provide the burrito chain with a fresh face (and revenue stream) and Sweetgreen with the capital to become the Starbucks of salads.

零售

Retail

2019年年初，由于西爾斯百貨未能擺脫破產(chǎn)保護(hù)狀態(tài)，亞馬遜將出手買下幾十家西爾斯和凱馬特門店。這些門店將成為新的電子商務(wù)配送中心，其中一些還會成為亞馬遜實體店。

In the wake of Sears Holdings’ failure to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in early 2019, Amazon.com will come in and buy dozens of Sears and Kmart locations that will serve as new e-commerce distribution hubs and, in some cases, Amazon-branded stores.

5. Facebook面臨生死攸關(guān)的威脅

盡管連續(xù)兩個季度創(chuàng)下收入新紀(jì)錄，但從公關(guān)角度講，馬克·扎克伯格的這家大型社交媒體公司在2018年過的非常糟糕。如果不能迅速應(yīng)對這些挑戰(zhàn)，2019年Facebook的處境甚至可能變得更差。

5. Facebook Faces Existential Threats

Despite two record-setting quarters for revenue, Mark Zuckerberg’s social media behemoth had a very bad 2018 from a PR perspective. If Facebook doesn’t address these challenges quickly, 2019 could be even worse.

美國國會

Cambridge Analytica丑聞曝光后馬克·扎克伯格出席了美國國會的聽證會，而外界就聽證會得出的結(jié)論之一就是，如果Facebook在保護(hù)用戶數(shù)據(jù)方面仍然不上心，政客們看來就會在對其施加監(jiān)管的問題上持更開放的態(tài)度。扎克伯格在華盛頓幾乎沒什么朋友——民主、共和兩黨都斥責(zé)Facebook對他們的競選活動產(chǎn)生了不利影響，我們預(yù)計歐洲強大隱私法的美國版本將獲得兩黨同時支持。政府監(jiān)管再加上違反新法律遭受的罰款可能最終扼殺Facebook的增長前景。

公眾信任

一連串壞消息已經(jīng)有損Facebook在美國民眾中的聲譽。哈里斯民意調(diào)查機構(gòu)最近代表《財富》雜志對2000多位美國人的調(diào)查表明，在保護(hù)用戶數(shù)據(jù)方面，人們認(rèn)為Facebook是最不值得信賴的大型科技公司。這樣的印象很難改變。盡管斥巨資開展公共活動，但如果再次出現(xiàn)Cambridge Analytica級別的隱私丑聞，F(xiàn)acebook的品牌就可能遭受不可彌補的損害。

Instagram

科技行業(yè)分析師把Instagram視為Facebook旗下的招財童子以及未來增長的源泉，原因是這項核心社交業(yè)務(wù)看來已經(jīng)在美國等地站穩(wěn)了腳跟。雖然Facebook在2012年就收購了這家照片共享服務(wù)商，但I(xiàn)nstagram的產(chǎn)品方向和文化一直牢牢控制在創(chuàng)始人凱文·希思特羅姆和邁克·克里格手中。這個強大二人組在2018年年底離去后，F(xiàn)acebook禁不住要插手Instagram的事務(wù)，此舉激怒了40歲以下群體，也就是Instagram的主要用戶群。

歐洲

這家社交媒體巨頭由于數(shù)據(jù)問題在歐洲面臨的罰金數(shù)額更為巨大。官方正在調(diào)查Facebook是否違反了歐盟《通用數(shù)據(jù)保護(hù)條例》，該條例旨在讓用戶更清晰地了解公司如何使用其數(shù)據(jù)。Facebook面臨的罰款最多可能達(dá)到其全球收入的4%。

假新聞

雖然已經(jīng)清理了2016年美國大選期間肆虐的大部分假消息，但Facebook的任務(wù)依然艱巨。各家新聞媒體和研究機構(gòu)仍在挖掘該公司自動審核系統(tǒng)漏掉的誤導(dǎo)或冒犯他人的內(nèi)容。在這方面，人類編輯的作用就像試圖阻止潮水的丹麥國王一樣。除非Facebook顯著改變自家平臺傳播內(nèi)容的方式，同時調(diào)整業(yè)務(wù)模式，使之和用戶利益一致，否則這個問題將一直存在。

Congress

One of the takeaways from the congressional hearings Mark Zuckerberg faced in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal was that politicians appear more open to regulating Facebook if it continues with a lackadaisical approach to safeguarding user data. With few friends in Washington—both parties blame Facebook for negatively impacting their campaigns?—?expect a U.S. equivalent to Europe’s strong privacy laws to find bipartisan support. Government regulation, along with the fines that come with failing to comply with new laws, could end up stifling Facebook’s growth prospects.

Public Trust

Facebook’s string of bad news has hurt the company’s reputation with the American public. A recent Harris poll survey of over 2,000 Americans, conducted on behalf of Fortune, showed that people view Facebook as the least trustworthy major tech company when it comes to safeguarding user data. That image is not easily shaken. Despite a well-funded PR blitz, another privacy scandal on the scale of Cambridge Analytica could cause irreparable brand damage.

Instagram

Tech analysts consider Instagram to be Facebook’s golden child and a source of future growth as the core social networking service appears to have plateaued in places like the U.S. Even though Facebook acquired the photo-sharing app in 2012, the product direction and culture of Instagram had been firmly under the control of its founders Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger. With that powerful duo gone as of late 2018, Facebook won’t be able to resist meddling with the app, angering the key under-40 demographic that makes up the majority of its users.

Europe

The social media giant will face more significant penalties for its data blunders in Europe. It’s being scrutinized for potential violations of the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation, intended to provide more transparency to users about how companies are using their data. The company could face fines of up to 4% of its worldwide revenue.

Fake News

Although Facebook has cleaned its service of much of the fake news that ran rampant during the 2016 U.S. election campaign, it faces an uphill battle. Various media outlets and research groups are still digging up misleading or offensive content that manages to slip through Facebook’s automated systems. Human editors are as effective in solving the problem as a Danish king stopping the tide. Unless Facebook makes drastic changes in how content is propagated on its platform and shifts its business model to align with user interests, the problem will continue.

6. 誰的2019年會很棒？誰的會不那么棒？

2019年將（或無法）表現(xiàn)出色的公司和企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。

6. Who’s Going to Have a Great and Not-So-Great Year

The companies and business leaders that will thrive (or not) in 2019.

呈上升趨勢

· Tiktok（抖音國際版）。“成年人”開始使用這款令人上癮的視頻分享軟件——其“有毒的”對口型視頻已經(jīng)成為青少年中間的一種現(xiàn)象。所以我們預(yù)計它會在2020年滑坡。

· 大麻二酚。這種大麻中的化學(xué)成分不會讓人飄飄然，但有抗焦慮效果。我們預(yù)計它將會流行起來，并進(jìn)入到很多東西中，比如雞尾酒，再比如沙拉調(diào)料。

· 埃隆·馬斯克。他的2019年不會有2000萬美元的美國證監(jiān)會罰款，不會有備受矚目的分手，也不會有對洞穴救援者的污蔑。這應(yīng)該算是成功的一年。

· 耐克。支持科林·卡佩尼克和塞琳娜·威廉姆斯等“維權(quán)型”運動員延續(xù)了這個品牌在18歲至40歲關(guān)鍵用戶群體眼中的酷勁兒。

· 比特幣。加密貨幣投機降溫，但被淘汰的是其他加密貨幣。投資者認(rèn)為比特幣是較安全的儲值手段。

· 燕麥奶。它的起泡效果比豆奶好，要擔(dān)心的環(huán)境問題也較少。瑞典Oatly等品牌將在明年年底前席卷所有與之相配的咖啡店。

· 麻疹。美國爆發(fā)了21世紀(jì)最嚴(yán)重的麻疹疫情。不斷壯大的反疫苗運動讓美國西南部的一個主要大都會區(qū)損失慘重。

呈下降趨勢

· 槍支。鑒于控槍法案刺激銷售無望，隨著本行業(yè)的“特朗普蕭條”繼續(xù)下去，一家大型槍械制造商將宣布破產(chǎn)。

· 大麻股。隨著美國司法部開始加強聯(lián)邦法律執(zhí)行力度，對大麻股的胃口將變小。

· 韓流。事實證明，防彈少年團的2018年紐約市花旗球場演唱會是韓國流行音樂在美國的巔峰之作。

· 含酒精氣泡水。啤酒廠商想借LaCroix風(fēng)潮推出另類酒精飲料，但消費者很快就會發(fā)現(xiàn)它有多難喝。

· SUV。汽油價格上漲意味著更多購車者將選擇結(jié)構(gòu)更緊湊的跨界休旅車（CUV），而不是過去10年獨領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷的“燒油大王”。

· Match集團。和競爭對手Bumble以及Facebook約會app的官司將讓Tinder、Match.com和OkCupid的母公司損失金錢以及市場份額。

· 蘋果公司。它沒能拿出更好的手機，這就是問題的一部分——2018年上市的iPhone X和iPhone XR是如此優(yōu)秀，以至于蘋果幾乎沒有動力來升級2019年推出的后續(xù)產(chǎn)品。

Trending up

· TikTok. “The adults” start using the addictive video-sharing app, a phenomenon among teens for its viral lip-synching videos. So expect it to trend down in 2020..

· CBD. This chemical component of marijuana doesn’t provide a high but may deliver antianxiety effects. Expect to see it popping up as an ingredient in everything from cocktails to salad dressing.

· Elon Musk. He’ll make it through 2019 without a $20 million SEC fine, a high-profile breakup, or insults directed at cave rescuers. That counts as a win.

· Nike. Its support for the activism of athletes like Colin Kaepernick and Serena Williams sustains the brand’s coolness with its key 18-to-40 demographic.

· Bitcoin. Crypto-speculation cools, but it’s alt coins that fall by the wayside. Investors see Bitcoin as the safer store of value.

· Oat Milk. It foams up better than soy milk and comes with fewer environmental concerns. Brands like Oatly, a Swedish export, will be in every coffee shop worth its beans by the end of the year.

· Measles. The U.S. has its worst measles outbreak of the 21st century. The growing might of the vocal anti-vaxxer movement takes a devastating toll on a major metropolitan area in the Southwest.

Trending Down

· Guns. With no chance of gun-control legislation to spark sales, a major gun manufacturer will declare bankruptcy as the industry’s Trump slump continues.

· Weed Stocks. The appetite for cannabis stocks abates as the Justice Department starts ramping up enforcement of federal laws.

· K-Pop. Boy band BTS’s 2018 show at New York’s Citi Field stadium proves to be the zenith for Korean pop in America.

· Hard Seltzer. Beverage makers tried to ride the LaCroix craze by offering an alcoholic variant, but consumers will realize how bad it tastes.

· SUVs. Higher gas prices will mean more car buyers choosing the more compact Crossover Utility Vehicle (CUV) instead of the gas guzzlers that have dominated the past decade.

· Match Group. A lawsuit with Bumble and Facebook’s dating app will take money and market share away from the parent company of Tinder, Match.com, and OkCupid.

· Apple. Its phones have never been better, and that’s part of the problem: 2018’s iPhone X and XR are so good that there’s little incentive to upgrade to their successor in 2019.

我們的2018年大預(yù)言表現(xiàn)如何。

準(zhǔn)確命中：我們正確預(yù)測了經(jīng)濟繁榮的幾個副作用，包括美聯(lián)儲可能在12個月內(nèi)四次提高基準(zhǔn)利率以及火爆的股市將再次引發(fā)IPO熱潮。我們預(yù)計Lyft從出現(xiàn)聲譽問題的Uber手中奪走的市場份額將超過預(yù)期。體育方面，我們預(yù)見到了冬奧會單板滑雪選手克洛伊·金以及NBA球員“希臘怪物”揚尼斯·阿德托昆博的統(tǒng)治級表現(xiàn)。

基本靠譜：《財富》雜志預(yù)計2018年的股市表現(xiàn)一般——到發(fā)稿時止，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)上漲了6.6%。今年美國最高法院在商業(yè)方面有三項重大裁決，我們預(yù)見到了其中兩項。我們還預(yù)測到新英格蘭愛國者隊、洛杉磯道奇隊和克利夫蘭騎士隊將進(jìn)入各自聯(lián)賽的決賽。

預(yù)測失誤：我們低估了油價，認(rèn)為美國GDP增速不會達(dá)到3%。我們還預(yù)測慈善捐款將使沃倫·巴菲特的凈資產(chǎn)縮水（結(jié)果正相反，他的資產(chǎn)增長了52億美元）。另外，凱蒂·佩里、彼得·蒂爾等知名游客也沒有像我們預(yù)測的那樣登上太空。

預(yù)言團隊：

Daniel Bentley, Erika Fry, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Rachel King, Polina Marinova, McKenna Moore, Sy Mukherjee, Aaron Pressman, Lisa-Marie Segarra, Lucinda Shen, Jonathan Vanian, and Phil Wahba.（財富中文網(wǎng)）

本文最初刊登在2018年12月1日出版的《財富》雜志上。

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

7. How We Did in 2018 7.

On Target:

We correctly predicted several side effects of a boom, including that the Fed would raise its benchmark rate four times in 12 months and that a hot stock market would fuel an IPO resurgence. We forecast that Lyft would seize more market share than expected from reputationally challenged Uber. In sports, we called the ascendancy of Olympic snowboarder Chloe Kim and the NBA’s Giannis “the Greek Freak” Antetokounmpo.

In the Ballpark:

Fortune foresaw a just-okay year for the stock market: The S&P 500 was up 6.6% at press time. We called two of the year’s three biggest business-related Supreme Court rulings. And we correctly sent the Patriots, Dodgers, and Cavaliers to the finals of their leagues.

Off the Mark:

We lowballed oil prices, predicted that U.S. GDP wouldn’t crack 3%, and divined that charitable donations would shrink Warren Buffett’s net worth (instead, he got $5.2 billion richer). And contrary to our forecast, neither Katy Perry, Peter Thiel, nor any other celebrity tourist was blasted into space.

Crystal Ball Contributors:

Daniel Bentley, Erika Fry, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Rachel King, Polina Marinova, McKenna Moore, Sy Mukherjee, Aaron Pressman, Lisa-Marie Segarra, Lucinda Shen, Jonathan Vanian, and Phil Wahba.

This article originally appeared in the December 1, 2018 issue of Fortune.