2008年，華爾街巨頭Lucinda Shen兄弟轟然崩塌，拉開(kāi)了金融危機(jī)大幕。從很多方面來(lái)看，此后美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)得相當(dāng)平穩(wěn)。

失業(yè)率降至數(shù)十年來(lái)低點(diǎn)，美股一路攀升至歷史高點(diǎn)。美國(guó)人也前所未有地富有，今年早些時(shí)候家庭財(cái)產(chǎn)總計(jì)達(dá)到100萬(wàn)億美元。

然而與此同時(shí)，2008年金融危機(jī)的后遺癥仍隱隱作痛，加劇了美國(guó)金融業(yè)版圖長(zhǎng)期調(diào)整的趨勢(shì)。

舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，美國(guó)年度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增速尚未達(dá)到3%，工資漲幅也自2009年以來(lái)停滯不前。

以下是尚未恢復(fù)到衰退以前水平的領(lǐng)域：

美國(guó)普通家庭

總體來(lái)看，美國(guó)人比以往任何時(shí)候都富有。但財(cái)富更多流向富裕人群，窮人境況并無(wú)明顯好轉(zhuǎn)。

根據(jù)在線金融咨詢公司Betterment于9月發(fā)布的研究報(bào)告，受2008年金融危機(jī)影響的消費(fèi)者約有65%均表示尚未恢復(fù)。

這可不僅是感覺(jué)，政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)也能提供支持。最新的2016年凈值中位數(shù)達(dá)到97,300美元，但仍低于2007年凈值中位數(shù)120,600美元，甚至低于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫期間。另一方面，最富有的10%美國(guó)人在衰退期間的財(cái)富縮水程度較低，之后財(cái)富不斷累積，而且已超過(guò)衰退前10%。

“這反映出，數(shù)十年來(lái)財(cái)富增長(zhǎng)主要集中在原有的富裕家庭。”德意志銀行的首席國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家托爾斯騰·斯洛克最近發(fā)給客戶的報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道。“上一次衰退期間，美國(guó)普通家庭遭受了嚴(yán)重打擊，至今尚未恢復(fù)?！?

部分原因在于，與富人相比，普通家庭購(gòu)房承擔(dān)更多債務(wù)。因此當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退來(lái)襲房?jī)r(jià)降低時(shí)，底層的90%受創(chuàng)更嚴(yán)重。

非裔和西裔美國(guó)家庭

整體而言，2008年金融危機(jī)之前非裔和西裔家庭就不太富裕。與白人相比，他們年收入更低，衰退期間抵押貸款的比例更高。

結(jié)果衰退之后，非裔和西裔家庭的財(cái)富與白人家庭財(cái)富的差距繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大。

2016年白人家庭財(cái)富平均凈值為171,000美元，比2007年的高點(diǎn)減少約13%，但非裔和西裔家庭的財(cái)務(wù)狀況下滑更嚴(yán)重。2016年黑人家庭財(cái)富凈值中位數(shù)比危機(jī)前減少了30%，僅為17,150美元。消費(fèi)者財(cái)務(wù)調(diào)查顯示，西裔家庭財(cái)富中位數(shù)減少了15%，為20,720美元。

農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)

衰退后，不僅家庭間不平等現(xiàn)象日益擴(kuò)大，不同地區(qū)之間差距也類似，富裕社區(qū)復(fù)蘇更明顯。

“伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張，城鄉(xiāng)之間差距越來(lái)越大。”斯洛克寫(xiě)道。

根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)創(chuàng)新集團(tuán)2017年分析，本次復(fù)蘇期間就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)幾乎全在所謂的“成功”地區(qū)，即高中學(xué)歷以上人士更多、貧困率更低的地區(qū)，也包括一些其他指標(biāo)。2008年至2015年間排前20%的地區(qū)就業(yè)崗位增加了270萬(wàn)個(gè)。

同期，排名后80%的地區(qū)就業(yè)崗位則減少了150萬(wàn)個(gè)。

相關(guān)指標(biāo)的變化趨勢(shì)與2008年金融危機(jī)之前基本一致，即制造業(yè)和采礦業(yè)等領(lǐng)域就業(yè)人數(shù)下降，因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)有更經(jīng)濟(jì)的選擇，例如自動(dòng)化。

不過(guò)，鹿特丹管理學(xué)院首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家喬·布魯塞拉斯表示，2018年的金融危機(jī)可能推動(dòng)一些企業(yè)主加速轉(zhuǎn)型，企業(yè)被迫裁員并投資轉(zhuǎn)型機(jī)械化，努力挺過(guò)危機(jī)。

不少年輕人蹭父母住房

2008年金融危機(jī)后，房?jī)r(jià)不斷上漲，工資漲幅卻不溫不火，不少年輕人只得賴在家里蹭父母。

危機(jī)后留在家里的成年人比例不斷上升。根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)網(wǎng)站Zillow統(tǒng)計(jì)，目前24至36歲的年輕人里約有22.5%與父母同住，而2007年該比例還是16.1%。

2008年金融危機(jī)之前就已有該趨勢(shì)，可能危機(jī)爆發(fā)使之加劇。

以前年輕人剛工作時(shí)更多選擇租房。Zillow經(jīng)濟(jì)研究和推廣主管斯凱勒·奧爾森表示，開(kāi)發(fā)商建造租賃房產(chǎn)成本越來(lái)越高，分區(qū)固定也越發(fā)嚴(yán)格，導(dǎo)致租賃房產(chǎn)變少，租金也水漲船高。

與此同時(shí)，房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)超過(guò)衰退前水平，2018年二季度美國(guó)房主比例降至64.3%，此前曾高達(dá)69%。

危機(jī)造成的心理陰影

消費(fèi)者并沒(méi)有忘記金融危機(jī)帶來(lái)的痛苦。

有個(gè)重要跡象，比起經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退前幾年人們愛(ài)儲(chǔ)蓄多了。2007年消費(fèi)者將3.1%至4.4%用于儲(chǔ)蓄，今年7月這一數(shù)字為6.7%。

“人們經(jīng)歷過(guò)信任崩潰，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和資本主義也失去信心。”布魯塞拉斯說(shuō)。 “這是后危機(jī)時(shí)代的重要轉(zhuǎn)變。所以美國(guó)人民決定下一次衰退來(lái)臨之前加緊儲(chǔ)蓄并不奇怪?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

In many ways, the U.S. economy appears to have made a smooth recovery since the bankruptcy of Wall Street titan Lehman Brothers marked the start of the 2008 financial crisis.

Unemployment has hit multi decade lows, while the U.S. stock market has continued to reach all-time highs. As a nation, Americans are also wealthier than ever, reaching $100 trillion in household worth earlier this year.

But at the same time, the effects of the financial crisis of 2008 still linger, exacerbating longer term trends that have helped shift much of the American financial landscape.

Annual Gross Domestic Product in the U.S., for example, has yet to reach above 3%, while wage growth has remained tepid since 2009.

Here are five other areas that have yet to return to pre-recession levels:

The Average American Household

As a collective group, Americans are wealthier than ever. But the wealth has flowed more so to the already wealthy than the less affluent.

According to a September study from online financial advisory firm Betterment, about 65% of consumers who were affected by the 2008 financial crisis said they had not yet recovered.

It’s more than just a feeling, as supported by government statistics. Median net worth in 2016, the most up-to-date data, hit $97,300—still below the $120,600 median from 2007, and even during that of the Dotcom bubble. The top 10% of wealthiest Americans, on the other hand, saw their wealth decline less during the recession, and have since exceeded their pre-recession wealth levels by 10%.

“This partially reflects the decades-long tendency for wealth gains to accrue mostly to already wealth households,” Deutsche Bank chief international economist Torsten Slok wrote in a recent note to clients. “The typical U.S. family was hit very hard in the last recession and has yet to recover.”

Part of the reason for the divergence: The typical U.S. family often took on more debt to buy a home, compared to their wealthier countrymen. So, when the recession hit and lowered home values, the bottom 90% were more heavily impacted by the fallout.

African-American and Hispanic Families

As a whole, African-American and Hispanic families were less affluent leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. They earned less annually, and had a higher percentage of their mortgages fall underwater during the recession, when compared to their white counterparts.

As a result, the gap between their wealth and the wealth of white families had continued to widen since the recession.

While the median net worth of white families in 2016—$171,000—is roughly 13% below the group’s 2007 peak, the finances of African-American and Hispanic households has fallen more dramatically. The median net worth of black families in 2016 was 30% below pre-crisis levels, at $17,150. That same figure was down 15%, at $20,720, for Hispanic families, according to the Survey of Consumer Finances.

Rural Economies

Perhaps mirroring this phenomenon of widening inequality following a recession, the recovery has also largely fallen to more affluent communities.

“This expansion’s benefits are split between urban and rural areas,” Slok wrote.

Based on a 2017 analysis from the Economic Innovation Group, nearly all of the job growth in this recovery has been in so-called “successful” zip codes—areas with more high school diplomas and lower poverty rates, among other metrics. The top 20% of these zip codes added 2.7 million jobs between 2008 to 2015.

The bottom 80% of zip codes meanwhile shed 1.5 million jobs in the same period.

These shifting metrics follow trends that have existed before the 2008 financial crisis: Namely, declining jobs in areas such as manufacturing and mining as employers opt for cheaper options, such as automation.

But the financial crisis of 2018 may have helped speed up the transition for some business owners, says RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas, pushing companies to layoff workers and invest in machinery in the hopes of surviving the crisis.

Young People Are Still Living at Home

Following the 2008 financial crisis, wage growth remained tepid despite rising home values—forcing more young people to hunker down with mom and dad.

Since the financial crisis, the percentage has only risen. According to real estate marketplace Zillow, about 22.5% of people between the ages of 24 and 36 lived with their parents. That figure was 16.1% in 2007.

But the reason for the increase may predate the financial crisis of 2018, even if the meltdown exacerbated the trend.

Traditionally, young people rent homes when they are just entering the workforce. But building rental properties has grown more expensive for developers, as zoning regulations have become tougher over time, leading to fewer rental properties and higher rents, according to Zillow’s Skylar Olsen, director of economic research and outreach.

At the same time, housing prices have exceeded pre-recession levels, pushing the percent of homeowners in the country to 64.3% in the second quarter of 2018. In comparison, that figure reached as high as 69% previously.

The Psychological Shadow of the Crisis

Consumers haven’t forgotten the pains of the financial crisis.

One major sign: They’re saving more than they did in the years leading up to the recession. While consumers saved about 3.1% to 4.4% of their disposable income in 2007, that figure was 6.7% in July.

“There’s been an erosion of trust and loss of confidence in the economy, and capitalism,” said Brusuelas. “That was the major development post-crisis. So it’s not surprising that the American public has decided to increase its own pace of savings in anticipation of the next downturn.”