差不多三年前，美國(guó)銀行首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩·莫伊尼罕披露了糟糕的全年業(yè)績(jī)。這位陷入困境的CEO宣布，2014年美銀僅實(shí)現(xiàn)凈利潤(rùn)48億美元，是賺了200多億美元的摩根大通和富國(guó)銀行的五分之一。和規(guī)模小得多的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手花旗集團(tuán)相比，其業(yè)績(jī)也只有花旗的三分之二。罰款和抵押貸款壞賬帶來(lái)的巨大負(fù)擔(dān)，以及每年為此花費(fèi)的數(shù)十億美元，讓越來(lái)越多的人懷疑美銀能否真的再次站穩(wěn)腳跟。

落后的股價(jià)和估值體現(xiàn)了這些沉重顧慮。2015年初，美銀的股價(jià)跌至15美元左右，市值1600億美元，幾乎比華爾街寵兒富國(guó)銀行少1000億。

但接下來(lái)美銀的情況出現(xiàn)了驚人逆轉(zhuǎn)，美國(guó)大銀行的排名也發(fā)生了重大變化。1月17日，莫伊尼罕宣布美銀2017年利潤(rùn)為210億美元（不包括新聯(lián)邦稅法帶來(lái)的29億美元支出）。這超過(guò)了富國(guó)銀行的188.5億美元（不包括一大筆稅收收益），更不用說(shuō)花旗的150億美元了（不包括一筆重大稅收損失）。美銀的股價(jià)也升至32美元，和2015年的黑暗日子相比上漲了一倍多，從而推動(dòng)美銀的市值達(dá)到3310億美元，超越了花旗（2070億），也將富國(guó)銀行甩在身后——大家都知道，代價(jià)昂貴的消費(fèi)業(yè)務(wù)丑聞一直困擾著富國(guó)銀行。

雖然有了引人注目的復(fù)蘇，但美銀仍落后于行業(yè)龍頭摩根大通，后者2017年實(shí)現(xiàn)稅前利潤(rùn)269億美元，比美銀高22%。杰米·戴蒙領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的這家公司在市值上也處于領(lǐng)先位置，3940億美元的規(guī)模仍比美銀高19%，只是領(lǐng)先幅度略有下降。

那么，如今出現(xiàn)了一種可能，那就是悶聲不響的美銀能否超過(guò)強(qiáng)大的摩根大通？這在2015年初還顯得不可思議。

的確，如果美銀能保持當(dāng)前的勢(shì)頭，如果莫伊尼罕絕不偏離自己的低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、高度集中路線，美銀至少就能獲得和摩根大通一樣強(qiáng)的盈利能力。摩根大通和美銀都有規(guī)模巨大的消費(fèi)銀行業(yè)務(wù)。在公司業(yè)務(wù)方面，摩根大通的銷售額以及為企業(yè)客戶做的交易規(guī)模較高，美銀則通過(guò)美林在經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)上走在了前面。對(duì)美銀來(lái)說(shuō)，要將回報(bào)率提高到摩根大通的水平，動(dòng)力就在于做大這項(xiàng)支柱業(yè)務(wù)，提升寶貴的企業(yè)銀行業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模。

莫伊尼罕相信老式銀行業(yè)務(wù)，也就是吸納低成本存款，然后將這些資金貸給忠實(shí)的客戶，是世界上最棒的生意之一，而且他也在證明這一點(diǎn)。以下就是美銀有潛力和摩根大通并駕齊驅(qū)的原因：

莫伊尼罕是經(jīng)營(yíng)杠桿大師，而這正是提升利潤(rùn)的最關(guān)鍵因素

獲得經(jīng)營(yíng)杠桿的途徑是讓收入增速一直高于成本，這樣利潤(rùn)就比收入增長(zhǎng)的快。這是給利潤(rùn)注入“興奮劑”的方程式。實(shí)際上，莫伊尼罕讓美銀渡過(guò)難關(guān)的辦法就是削減成本，使其降幅足以彌補(bǔ)收入的滑坡。從2015年第一季度到2016年第一季度，美銀的收入下跌了3%，但莫伊尼罕設(shè)法讓這期間的成本降幅達(dá)到15%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)收入下滑的速度。然后，在2016年第二季度，美銀的策略從損失管控轉(zhuǎn)向大幅進(jìn)步。收入在此開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng)，莫伊尼罕也定下了每個(gè)季度都?jí)旱统杀镜哪繕?biāo)，而不僅僅是維持現(xiàn)狀。他承諾，將在2018年以前使非利息支出水平降至530億美元。

莫伊尼罕實(shí)現(xiàn)了目標(biāo)，2017年也成為展示經(jīng)營(yíng)杠桿魔力的經(jīng)典案例。美銀全年收入增加37億美元，或5%左右，達(dá)到874億；支出減少1%或3.40億美元，降至547億。由于收入超過(guò)支出，前者溫和增長(zhǎng)再加上后者基本持平推高了利潤(rùn)，使之從170億美元增至210億，增幅為17%。

在業(yè)績(jī)電話會(huì)議上，莫伊尼罕承諾將把成本保持在530億美元，也就是說(shuō)，他預(yù)計(jì)剔除通脹因素后的總支出每年將減少1-2%。

美銀擁有美國(guó)最大的消費(fèi)銀行業(yè)務(wù)

美銀最大的業(yè)務(wù)是橫跨美國(guó)的分支網(wǎng)絡(luò)，數(shù)千萬(wàn)消費(fèi)者在這些分支機(jī)構(gòu)開(kāi)立普通支票賬戶和活期儲(chǔ)蓄賬戶，它們幾乎占美銀總收入的40%。2017年，隨著美銀吸引來(lái)了各種各樣的消費(fèi)者，它的消費(fèi)銀行業(yè)務(wù)迅速增長(zhǎng)，存款上升了8%，借貸增加了9%。收入提高了28億美元或8.8%，達(dá)到345億。同時(shí)，經(jīng)營(yíng)杠桿再次讓利潤(rùn)增速遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)收入?；静蛔兊拈_(kāi)支和近9%的收入增長(zhǎng)使利潤(rùn)上升14%，從72億美元增至82億，從而使消費(fèi)銀行業(yè)務(wù)成為美銀最大的賺錢機(jī)器。

2017年完美詮釋了美銀要怎樣趕上摩根大通——經(jīng)營(yíng)杠桿推動(dòng)利潤(rùn)實(shí)現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)，而收入增速只是利潤(rùn)的一半。

美銀最棒的資產(chǎn)：低成本存款

美銀最大股東沃倫·巴菲特頻繁稱贊“大量有粘性存款”的價(jià)值。美銀擁有存款6650億美元，可以用來(lái)發(fā)放抵押貸款、汽車以及信用卡貸款。這些存款的平均利率為0.04%。包括間接費(fèi)用和龐大分支網(wǎng)絡(luò)的運(yùn)營(yíng)成本在內(nèi)，總成本為6.65億美元，占存款的1.61%。抵押貸款、房屋凈值貸款、汽車以及信用卡貸款的平均利率約為10%，這給美銀帶來(lái)了8.74%的利潤(rùn)率。同時(shí)，違約水平接近幾十年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。

莫伊尼罕的策略：別搞砸一件好事

得益于良好的信貸質(zhì)量和充滿活力的經(jīng)濟(jì)，美銀及其對(duì)手在過(guò)去很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間里都擁有強(qiáng)大的盈利能力。但就像莫伊尼罕指出的那樣，他們普遍把鼎盛時(shí)期積累的巨額利潤(rùn)浪費(fèi)在了開(kāi)展低質(zhì)量、低利潤(rùn)率業(yè)務(wù)上，而且發(fā)放了過(guò)多有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的貸款。莫伊尼罕信誓旦旦地說(shuō)，美銀已經(jīng)吸取了過(guò)去的教訓(xùn)，今后將把自己充分了解并信任的、非?？煽康南M(fèi)者作為主要貸款對(duì)象。

到目前為止，莫伊尼罕一直遵循著自己的計(jì)劃，就像蓋在信封上的郵戳一樣嚴(yán)絲合縫。兩年前，美銀設(shè)定的有形權(quán)益回報(bào)率目標(biāo)是12%，資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率目標(biāo)為1%?，F(xiàn)在，第一個(gè)指標(biāo)已經(jīng)達(dá)到11%，第二個(gè)目標(biāo)也完成了90%以上。僅有形權(quán)益回報(bào)率升至12%一項(xiàng)就可將美銀的凈利潤(rùn)幾乎提高230億美元，比摩根大通少40億。此外，在第四季度業(yè)績(jī)電話會(huì)議上，莫伊尼罕輕松愉快的態(tài)度表明他才剛剛開(kāi)始施展拳腳。他表示，通過(guò)把公司貸款利率從29%降至略高于20%的水平，美銀僅靠新稅法就能遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超越上述指標(biāo)。

實(shí)際上，莫伊尼罕仍在追趕戴蒙。摩根大通避開(kāi)了抵押貸款行業(yè)一片繁榮時(shí)形成的陷阱，而且一直在為未來(lái)投資；美銀則通過(guò)收縮規(guī)模生存了下來(lái)?，F(xiàn)在，莫伊尼罕也進(jìn)入了擴(kuò)張模式，而且他對(duì)經(jīng)營(yíng)杠桿的熟練運(yùn)用再次把適度而謹(jǐn)慎的發(fā)展方案變成了強(qiáng)大的利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)引擎。

莫伊尼罕還說(shuō)，他決心讓美銀的業(yè)績(jī)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)那些曾經(jīng)顯得過(guò)高的目標(biāo)。他已經(jīng)讓美銀從落水狗變成了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)參與者。現(xiàn)在，他正在設(shè)法讓美銀成為最優(yōu)秀的銀行。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie?

Around this time three years ago, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan unveiled the final numbers for a dreadful year. The beleaguered CEO announced that B of A had posted just $4.8 billion in net earnings for 2014, around one-fifth the $20-billion-plus bounty at J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo, and two-thirds of the profits for much smaller rival Citigroup. The gigantic burden from penalties and losses on bad mortgages, and the billions spent annually on servicing that stricken portfolio, spread doubt whether B of A could ever regain its footing.

Its lagging stock price and valuation reflected those deep misgivings. In early 2015, B of A’s stock was mired around $15, and its $160 billion market cap lagged that of Wall Street darling Wells by almost $100 billion.

What’s happened since marks an astounding reversal of form for B of A, and a major reshuffling of the hierarchy of America’s biggest banks. On January 17, Moynihan announced that B of A earned $21 billion in 2017 (excluding a $2.9 charge due to the new federal tax law). B of A bested Wells ($18.85 billion, excluding a large tax gain), not to mention Citi ($15 billion, excluding a big tax loss). And B of A’s shares have more than doubled to $32 since the dark days of early 2015, lifting its market cap to $331, dwarfing Citi ($207 billion) and surpassing Wells, which has been famously plagued by costly scandals in its consumer business.

Despite its impressive comeback, B of A still trails the champ, J.P. Morgan, whose 2017 (pre-tax charge) profits of $26.9 billion beat B of A by 22%. Jamie Dimon’s franchise also leads in market cap at $394 billion, maintaining a slightly lower, 19% edge.

So today, a possibility arises that would have seemed unthinkable in early 2015: Can the plodder, B of A, overtake mighty J.P. Morgan?

Indeed, if B of A can remain on its current trajectory—and Moynihan never deviates from his low-risk, highly focused course—B of A can at least match J.P. Morgan’s immense profitability. Both J.P. Morgan and B of A run gigantic consumer banking franchises. On the corporate side, J.P. is bigger in sales and trading for corporate customers, and B of A leads in brokerage through its Merrill franchise. For B of A, the engine in raising returns to J.P Morgan levels will be expanding that bedrock, increasingly golden branch banking business.

Moynihan believes that old fashioned banking, consisting of gathering low-cost deposits and lending that money back to loyal customers, is one of the world’s great businesses. And he’s proving it. Here are the reasons why B of A has the potential to run shoulder-to-shoulder with J.P. Morgan.

MOYNIHAN IS A MASTER OF WHAT COUNTS MOST FOR LIFTING PROFITS: OPERATING LEVERAGE

Operating leverage is achieved by consistently growing revenues faster than costs, so that earnings outrace the top line. It’s a formula for putting profits on steroids. In effect, Moynihan saved B of A in the tough times by slashing costs to more than compensate for flagging revenues. From Q1 of 2015 to Q1 of 2016, B of A’s revenues were declining 3% on a year-over-year basis. But Moynihan managed to lower expenses far more in that period, by around 15% a year. Then, in Q2 of 2016, the strategy evolved from damage control to major progress. Revenues started growing once again, and Moynihan set the goal of not just freezing, but lowering cost every quarter, promising to reach a “run rate” of $53 billion in non-interest expenses by 2018.

He’s made it—and 2017 is a case study in the magic of operating leverage. For the year, revenues rose $3.7 billion or around 5% to $87.4 billion. Expenses declined 1% or $340 million to $54.7 billion. Since revenues are a bigger number than expenses, the combination of a modestly growing top line and flat expenses stoked profits, which rose from $17.0 to $21 billion, a 17% increase.

On the earnings conference call, Moynihan pledged to keep the cost line flat at $53 billion, meaning the he expects total expenses to fall by a point or two a year adjusted for inflation.

B OF A BOASTS AMERICA’S BIGGEST CONSUMER FRANCHISE

B of A’s biggest business is its coast-to-coast branch banking network that provides checking and savings accounts to tens of millions of customers, and accounts for almost 40% of total revenues. In 2017, the consumer side grew briskly as B of A attracted sundry new customers, adding 8% in deposits and 9% in loans and leases. Revenue rose by $2.8 billion or 8.8% to $34.5 billion. But once again, operating leverage swelled profits far more. Virtually flat expenses coupled with 9% revenue growth, raised net earnings by 14%, from $7.2 to $8.2 billion, making consumer by far B of A’s biggest money spinner.

This year is a primer on how B of A can get to J.P. Morgan territory: Operating leverage is driving double-digit profit growth on revenues advancing at half that rate.

B OF A’S GREATEST ASSET: LOW COST DEPOSITS

Warren Buffett, B of A’s largest shareholder, has frequently lauded the value of its “big, sticky deposits.” B of A boasts $665 billion in deposits that it can use to fund mortgage, auto, and credit card loans. It pays on average .04% rate on those deposits Factoring in the costs of overhead and operating its vast branch network, the total cost of those $665 million in deposits is 1.61%. Lending for mortgages, home equity and auto loans, and credit card loans carry average rates of around 10%, giving B of A a margin of 8.74%. And defaults are hovering near their lowest levels in decades.

MOYNIHAN’S STRATEGY: DON’T SCREW UP A GOOD THING

B of A and its rivals have experienced long periods of immense profitability in the past, buoyed by great credit quality, and a thriving economy. But as Moynihan likes to point out, they’ve generally squandered the huge gains in the flush times by chasing low-quality, low-margin business, and making excessively risky loans. Moynihan swears that B of A has learned from the past, and will lend mainly to the highly reliable customers it knows well and trusts.

So far, Moynihan has followed his plan like a postage stamp affixed to an envelope. Two years ago, B of A set a goal of 12% return on tangible equity, and 1% return on assets. It’s already hit 11% on the first goal, and gotten to over 90% of its goal on the second. Reaching 12% alone would lift B of A’s net earnings to almost $23 billion, $4 billion short of J.P. Morgan. But his buoyant optimism on the Q4 conference call suggests that Moynihan is just getting started. Moynihan stated that by dropping B of A’s corporate rate from around 29% into the low 20s, the new tax law alone will push B of A well past those benchmarks.

In effect, Moynihan is still playing catch up with Dimon, While J.P. Morgan’s avoided the pitfalls of the mortgage boom and kept investing for the future, B of A shrank to survive. Now, Moynihan too is in expansion mode, and once again, his mastery of operating leverage turns a program of modest, prudent growth into a powerful profit engine.

Moynihan also claimed that he’s determined to power well past what once seemed like stretch targets. He’s already taken B of A from a dog to contender. Now, he’s got a shot at making it the best.