這歸根結(jié)底是個人口紅利的問題。由于中國的計劃生育政策，中國的勞動力基數(shù)已經(jīng)開始縮減，而其鄰國印度的勞動力基數(shù)卻正以驚人的速度增加。

據(jù)安永會計事務(wù)所稱，到2020年，印度的勞動力大軍就將達到9億之多。而號稱擁有世界第三大勞動力人口的美國，其勞動人口總數(shù)也就不到1.6億人。

學過一點經(jīng)濟學的人都知道，經(jīng)濟增長歸根結(jié)底取決于資本（如工廠和計算機系統(tǒng)）和勞動力，因此勞動力的增加無疑對經(jīng)濟有著巨大的推動作用。但與此同時，印度政府也必須為勞動人口提供有效的培訓，并且建設(shè)必要的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，以促進經(jīng)濟增長。比如CNNMoney指出：

“據(jù)安永會計事務(wù)所稱，目前只有2%的印度工人接受過正式的技能培訓，而在英國、德國和韓國，這個比例分別高達68%、75%和96%。

印度的各行各業(yè)都存在這個問題。據(jù)英國皇家特許測量師學會估計，2010年印度需要近400萬名土木工程師，而滿足技能要求的只有50.9萬人。到2020年，印度對土木工程師的缺口將達到460萬人，而印度只能供給77.8萬人。

在建筑師領(lǐng)域也存在同樣的缺口。到2020年，印度將需要43.7萬名建筑師，而印度只能提供其中的17%。

如果印度能成功地將其龐大的人力資源轉(zhuǎn)化成具有生產(chǎn)力的工人，那它將很快取代中國，成為另一個讓美國經(jīng)濟觀察家又敬又怕的經(jīng)濟體。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：賈政景

That’s because while China’s workforce has already begun to shrink, in part as a result of the country’s one-child policy, its neighbor to the West, India, is growing its workforce at a breakneck pace.

According to Ernst and Young, the Indian workforce will grow to 900 million strong by 2020. To put that in perspective, the American workforce, which is the third largest in the world, comes in at just under 160 million people.

Because economic growth results from the combination of capital goods, like factories and computer systems, with labor, a growing labor force can be a huge boon for an economy. At the same time, the Indian government must also train its workforce effectively and build the necessary infrastructure to help its economy flourish. According to CNNMoney:

Currently only 2% of India’s workers have received formal skills training, according to Ernst & Young. That compares with 68% in the U.K., 75% in Germany and 96% in South Korea.

It’s a problem spread across industries. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors estimates that in 2010, India needed nearly 4 million civil engineers, but only 509,000 professionals had the right skills for the jobs. By 2020, India will have only 778,000 civil engineers for 4.6 million slots.

There is a similar gap among architects. India will have only 17% of the 427,000 professionals it needs in 2020.

If India can successfully transform its human resources into productive workers, you can expect it to quickly replace China as the economy that both inspires fear and respect among American economy watchers.