幾位麻省理工學者認為，自動化的崛起及其引發(fā)的失業(yè)可能迫使美國聯邦政府為全體民眾提供一定的收入保障，但這可能要等幾年，甚至是幾十年。

這種經濟保障通常被稱為全民基本收入，硅谷的很大一部分區(qū)域以及其他一些科技產業(yè)聚集地一直都對此表示歡迎，部分原因是為了緩解焦慮，不讓人們擔心當地科技的發(fā)展會斷了他們的生計。

如果付諸實施，全民基本收入將同等覆蓋所有公民，理論上可為那些幾乎沒有可靠收入的人提供基本經濟保障。特斯拉汽車和太空探索技術公司創(chuàng)始人埃隆·穆斯克等支持者認為，全民基本收入比目前的福利制度更有效，而且不那么官僚。

但對于什么時候需要此項制度的問題，人們眾說紛紜。麻省理工數字經濟項目聯合負責人安德魯·邁克菲本周三在麻省理工斯隆商學院的首席信息官座談會上說：“我們離最高就業(yè)水平還很遠。我們離經濟正常運轉所需的平穩(wěn)工作量也很遠?！?/p>

他的觀點是：“考慮后工作時代的條件還極不成熟?！?/p>

該項目另一位負責人埃里克·布林約爾松贊同邁克菲的觀點：“并不缺乏只有人才能勝任的工作。我們進步的非常、非?？欤M入那樣的時代還需要幾十年?！钡剂旨s爾松也指出，人們得愿意接受再培訓，從而成為有市場而且活躍的勞動者。

有人認為機器人或者自動化將取代數百萬人類勞動者，這種觀點一直是人們焦慮的源泉。正如媒體一直報道的那樣，自動化正在影響多種職業(yè)，包括估計約有180萬美國人從事的卡車司機工作以及飛機駕駛員、律師助理和外科醫(yī)生。

樂觀者認為，雖然低端工作將實現自動化，但人們會轉移到更高端、更需要技術的工作上。幾位發(fā)言人提到，需要有相關工作經驗的人來培訓機器人，來為人工智能工具編程。但這真的是一個長期解決方案嗎？

自動駕駛專業(yè)公司OTTO Motors聯合創(chuàng)始人瑞恩·加里皮就不這么想（OTTO Motors的總部設在加拿大安大略省基奇納市，并非優(yōu)步收購的自動駕駛卡車公司OTTO）。

加里皮說：“從事貨運的人或許可以去保養(yǎng)機器人或管理車隊，但我覺得這不會讓就業(yè)機會出現凈增?！彼挠^點是，讓世界保持運轉所需的勞動者將變少，因此確實需要社會事業(yè)來促進就業(yè)。

加里皮指出：“當然，有些從事貨運的人會成為機器人保養(yǎng)員或者車隊經理，但我不認為就業(yè)機會將出現凈增長?！痹谒磥?，隨著時間推移，技術會越來越快地讓更多工作變得過時。

他說：“卡車司機無法承擔重新學習的成本。幾十年后90%的卡車駕駛工作都會消失是個合理假設。”

這有可能意味著在較短時間里或許就會有160萬卡車司機需要全民基本收入。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

The rise of automation and resulting job losses could force the federal government to guarantee some income for everyone, but that won't happen for years or even decades, according to some academics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

This sort of payment, usually referred to as Universal Basic Income (UBI), has been embraced by much of Silicon Valley and other tech enclaves, in part to offset anxiety that the technology built in these places is killing off people's livelihoods.

UBI, if enacted, would be a flat payment to every citizen that would, in theory, act as a basic safety net for those who have little. Proponents, like Tesla (tsla, +2.07%) and SpaceX founder Elon Musk, have argued such payments would be more efficient and less bureaucratic than current welfare programs.

But opinions vary as to when such a program will be needed. "We are nowhere near peak employment," said Andrew McAfee, co-director of MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy, while speaking Wednesday at the MIT Sloan CIO Symposium. "We are nowhere near a plateau in how much work our economy requires to function."

His view: "Thinking of a post-work world is incredibly premature."

His colleague, Erik Brynjolfsson, who is director of the initiative, agreed: "There is no shortage of work that only people can do. We are moving very, very fast, but it's decades before we get to that kind of world." But, Brynjolfsson continued, people need to be willing to re-train themselves as needed and to be engaged.

The notion that robots or automation will take on the jobs of millions of people is a constant nagging source of anxiety. As has been reported, jobs ranging from truck drivers—of which there are an estimated 1.8 million in the U.S.— to airline pilots to paralegals to surgeons are already being affected by automation.

Optimists say that while automation will subsume lower-end jobs, people will migrate to higher-level, more skilled work. Several speakers mentioned the need for people with experience in their jobs to train robots and to program artificial intelligence tools. But is that really a long-term solution?

Ryan Gariepy, co-founder of OTTO Motors a specialist in automated driving, doesn't think so. (This company, based in Kitchener, Ontario, is not the same as OTTO, the self-driving car specialist purchased by Uber.)

"People who move materials around may become robot maintainers or fleet managers, but I don't think we'll see net new job creation," Gariepy said. His view is that fewer workers will be needed to keep the world moving, and thus, there will be a real need for a boost from social programs.

"Sure, some people who move materials around will become robot maintainers or fleet managers, but I don't think we'll see net new job creation," Gariepy said." Technology, in his view, will make more jobs obsolete faster and faster as time goes by.

"Truck drivers cannot afford to go back to school. It's reasonable to assume that 90% of those jobs will disappear within a generation," Gariepy said.

That could mean 1.6 million truck drivers may need universal basic income in relatively short order.