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人工智能,是時(shí)候認(rèn)真看待了

人工智能,是時(shí)候認(rèn)真看待了

Erin Griffith 2017-02-28
目前,對(duì)人工智能的追捧已經(jīng)達(dá)到了狂熱的地步,不過(guò),不像其他被極其夸大的技術(shù),人工智能或許不會(huì)曇花一現(xiàn)。

判斷對(duì)于某個(gè)科技潮流的炒作是否已經(jīng)達(dá)到頂峰,方法很簡(jiǎn)單。只需問(wèn)問(wèn)這幾個(gè)問(wèn)題:那些最著名的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家是否正在抱怨估值問(wèn)題?大型科技公司是否在初創(chuàng)公司早期甚至還不算真正的公司時(shí)就開(kāi)始收購(gòu)它們?《財(cái)富》500強(qiáng)公司的高管會(huì)討論潮流相關(guān)的戰(zhàn)略嗎?如果以上的答案是肯定的,那么恭喜你!你發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)潮流。小部分幸運(yùn)的先行者將會(huì)借此獲得無(wú)盡的財(cái)富。而當(dāng)我們剩下的人有所察覺(jué)時(shí),已經(jīng)太晚了。

接下來(lái),我們可以看看當(dāng)今的流行趨勢(shì):人工智能。美國(guó)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家正在反復(fù)念叨著“人工智能就是新時(shí)代的手機(jī)”。中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)公司百度的首席科學(xué)家吳恩達(dá)則將人工智能的影響力比作“新時(shí)代的電”。不過(guò),科技界的思想領(lǐng)袖越是大力宣揚(yáng)某些潮流,它就越可能銷聲匿跡。(例如,每日特惠是“商業(yè)的未來(lái)”;SoLoMo——社交、本地、移動(dòng)是“營(yíng)銷的未來(lái)”;按需服務(wù)是“工作的未來(lái)”;聊天機(jī)器人Chatbot是“客戶服務(wù)的未來(lái)”。)

然而,內(nèi)行人士仍然在人工智能的初創(chuàng)公司上不斷下注。CB Insights的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,去年,風(fēng)投公司對(duì)658家公司投資了50億美元,同比增加61%。收購(gòu)方也干勁十足。去年,至少有40家人工智能初創(chuàng)公司被收購(gòu),買方主要是大型科技公司,這一趨勢(shì)預(yù)計(jì)還將在2017年繼續(xù)。谷歌(Google)的企業(yè)發(fā)展主管唐?哈里森將并購(gòu)人工智能公司看作頭等大事。他表示錢不是問(wèn)題:“我們絕對(duì)以人工智能為先。我們會(huì)關(guān)注(估值),但沒(méi)有必要擔(dān)心它?!?/p>

人工智能往往缺乏明確的商業(yè)案例,但這也沒(méi)有關(guān)系。Salesforce負(fù)責(zé)企業(yè)發(fā)展的執(zhí)行副總裁約翰?紹莫爾堯伊表示:“他們還不是公司。這些(交易)主要關(guān)乎技術(shù)和人才?!?/p>

多年前,我們對(duì)虧損的移動(dòng)初創(chuàng)公司的估值表示過(guò)驚訝,也嘲笑過(guò)一些公司商業(yè)模式的匱乏,例如谷歌在2005年以大約5,000萬(wàn)美元買下的安卓(Android)。但情況變了:如今我們希望每家公司都有移動(dòng)戰(zhàn)略,因?yàn)檫@個(gè)大前提已經(jīng)毋庸置疑了。與此同時(shí),安卓成為了全球最流行的移動(dòng)操作系統(tǒng)。

未來(lái)幾年內(nèi),人工智能會(huì)成為主流嗎?它是類似于SoLoMo的一時(shí)狂熱,還是類似手機(jī)的革命性技術(shù)?如果公司和投資者認(rèn)為是后者,他們就應(yīng)該向這項(xiàng)技術(shù)傾注資金。未來(lái)五年內(nèi),人工智能可能會(huì)成為各個(gè)行業(yè)客戶服務(wù)、營(yíng)銷、產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)、銷售等一切業(yè)務(wù)流程中存在的功能。屆時(shí),我們就會(huì)明白,那些幸運(yùn)的先行者們并不只是借機(jī)致富,他們實(shí)際上是在塑造未來(lái)。

本文印刷版見(jiàn)于《財(cái)富》2017年3月1日刊。

譯者:嚴(yán)匡正

There’s an easy way to tell when the hype around a technology trend has peaked. Ask yourself the following: Are the smartest venture capitalists complaining about valuations? Are big tech companies snapping up startups so young they can barely be considered real businesses? Are Fortune 500 executives talking about their [insert trend here] strategy? If the answer to any of these questions is yes, congratulations! You’ve identified a fad. A small, lucky handful of early movers will ride it to untold riches. By the time the rest of us find out about the phenomenon, it’s too late.

Consider, then, today’s hot trend: Artificial intelligence. Venture capitalists across the country are parroting the phrase “AI is the new mobile.” Andrew Ng, chief scientist of Baidu, the Chinese Internet services company, declared that AI is “the new electricity.” The more intensely tech thought leaders proclaim that a trend is here to stay, the more rapidly it tends to vanish. (Daily deals were “the future of commerce.” SoLoMo—social, local, mobile—was “the future of marketing.” On-demand services were “the future of work.” Chatbots were “the future of customer service.”)

And yet the smart money continues its embrace of AI startups. Last year VCs invested $5 billion in 658 companies, a 61% increase over the year prior, according to CB Insights. Acquirers are getting aggressive too. Last year corporations, mostly big tech companies, bought at least 40 AI startups, a trend that’s expected to continue in 2017. Identifying AI acquisitions is a top priority for Don Harrison, head of corporate development at Google. “We’re definitely AI-first,” he says, noting that price is not a sticking point. “We pay attention to [valuation] but don’t necessarily worry about it.”

The fact that AI often lacks a clear business case doesn’t matter. “These are not businesses,” says John Somorjai, executive vice president of corporate development at Salesforce, which has acquired a handful of AI companies. “These [deals] are about technology and talent.”

Years ago we marveled at the valuations of money-losing mobile startups and snickered at the lack of a business model at companies like Android, which Google bought in 2005 for around $50 million. Things have changed: Today we expect every company to have a mobile strategy because the very premise is a given. Meanwhile Android is the most popular mobile operating system in the world.

Will artificial intelligence be a given in the years to come? Is AI a short-lived fad on par with SoLoMo—or a revolution like mobile? If companies and investors believe the latter, they should be pouring money into the technology. In five years artificial intelligence could exist as a layer of capability atop every business process, from customer service and marketing to product development and sales, across every industry. And then it will be clear that the lucky early movers weren’t just riding a fad to riches—they were shaping the future.

A version of this article appears in the March 1, 2017 issue of Fortune.

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