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虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)何去何從,主流還是小眾?

虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)何去何從,主流還是小眾?

Erin Griffith 2017年02月12日
從價(jià)格和娛樂價(jià)值來看,VR也跟3D打印機(jī)差不多,屬于昂貴的小眾產(chǎn)品。

在今年拉斯維加斯的消費(fèi)電子展(CES)上,當(dāng)我徜徉在一排排迷宮似的電子屏幕中間時(shí)——它們中有全世界最寬的、最平的、最清晰的、最亮的、最新款的,我腦中唯一閃過的念頭就是,VR真容易讓人滿臉冒油。在這個(gè)龐大的科技展會(huì)上,我急切地想試玩一下最新的VR產(chǎn)品。雖說VR技術(shù)早就被吹得神乎其神了,那對(duì)于大多數(shù)人來說,它仍是一種新奇的玩意兒。不過我試玩了每臺(tái)VR頭盔之后,第一個(gè)感覺就是迫切地想用洗手液把臉好好洗洗。

不過,虛擬世界的內(nèi)部景觀依然是令人驚嘆的。在一個(gè)演示片段里,我被三名渾身畫滿彩繪的柔術(shù)演員的驚人表演驚得目瞪口呆。當(dāng)一只老虎從我身邊走過時(shí),我把眼神望向左邊,才敢悄悄地喘口氣。然后,我戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢地走過了一座橫跨白雪皚皚的峽谷的繩橋。之后我又坐在一張價(jià)值7000美元的震動(dòng)椅里飛入了銀河。(親愛的讀者,我糟的這些罪都是為了你們吶?。┰贑ES的展廳里,人們?cè)赩R體驗(yàn)區(qū)里排起了長(zhǎng)隊(duì),而各種VR周邊設(shè)備也是花樣百出,十足就像一個(gè)大游樂場(chǎng):有用來模擬虛擬船只的震動(dòng)椅(能讓人暈船倒是不假);有用來模擬開飛機(jī)的設(shè)備,能像《壯志凌云》里那樣做出各種機(jī)動(dòng)和翻滾動(dòng)作;有用來模擬太空飛船的設(shè)備,坐進(jìn)去的人不一會(huì)兒就會(huì)尖叫連連。

我從人們摘下VR頭盔后頭暈?zāi)垦5谋砬樯希湍芸闯瞿男┤耸堑谝淮误w驗(yàn)VR。不過如果沒有展會(huì)上的這些旋轉(zhuǎn)椅或震動(dòng)椅之類的東東,VR的新鮮感迅速就會(huì)消退——尤其是當(dāng)你注意到800美元的價(jià)簽的時(shí)候(這還不含配件)。便宜些的VR頭盔戴上幾分鐘就會(huì)覺得太重了。有些機(jī)型戴上后讓人覺得視線很難對(duì)焦。所有的VR設(shè)備都有個(gè)共同點(diǎn)——容易讓人出油。另外,除了一些制作極為精良的游戲,你在大多數(shù)游戲里都不能四處走動(dòng),甚至看不見自己的雙手。所以VR最有意思的部分,也就是所謂的360度視角,就只能靠你自己尷尬地原地扭動(dòng)頭部了。

最糟糕的是,VR是一種與世隔絕的體驗(yàn)。雖然看著別人第一次玩VR很有喜感(三星在假日季的一則Gear VR的廣告就著重描繪了這一點(diǎn)),但二手的VR體驗(yàn)卻沒有任何樂趣可言。而且VR的這種頭盔與耳機(jī)結(jié)合的模式,也把“低頭族”(即沉浸在手機(jī)的世界里,忽略了真實(shí)世界中的同伴)這種現(xiàn)象上升到了一個(gè)新高度。

在最初的驚喜后,VR給人帶來的感覺就是不適和淡漠。這種經(jīng)歷也與VR技術(shù)的商業(yè)軌跡暗合。在幾年的大肆宣傳后,F(xiàn)acebook的Oculus Rift和HTC的Vive于去年正式上市,卻相繼經(jīng)歷了出貨延遲和訂單取消等問題。據(jù)收并購咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)Digi-Capital公司統(tǒng)計(jì),去年VR頭盔及軟件的銷售額比此前的預(yù)期低了29%,僅為27億美元。有鑒于此,Digi-Capital公司將2021年前VR市場(chǎng)的銷售額預(yù)期下調(diào)至25億美元。該公司認(rèn)為,在同一時(shí)期,VR技術(shù)更為社交化的小兄弟——AR(比如目前極為火爆的捉妖游戲《Pokémon Go》)卻有可能產(chǎn)生830億美元的驚人收益。

眼下VR的火熱宣傳讓我不禁想起3D打印機(jī)的早期階段:“未來家家都會(huì)有一臺(tái)3D打印機(jī)!”話雖這樣說,但事實(shí)上,并非家家都需要3D打印機(jī)。對(duì)大數(shù)人來說,3D打印機(jī)仍是一臺(tái)昂貴的小眾產(chǎn)品。從價(jià)格和娛樂價(jià)值來看,VR的地位也跟3D打印機(jī)差不多。目前VR體驗(yàn)最好的地方,就是拉斯維加斯的這座人頭攢動(dòng)、嘈雜無比的會(huì)展中心——一個(gè)人人都想逃離的地方。如果你要來,記得帶上一瓶洗手液。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

作者:Erin Griffith

譯者:樸成奎

Virtual reality is greasy. That’s all I could think as I wandered through the vast labyrinth of digital screens—the widest, flattest, clearest, shiniest, newest models in the world—at this year’s CES in Las Vegas. At the sprawling technology trade show, I was eager to sample the latest in VR, a technology that’s been hyped for a generation but remains a novelty to most people. Each headset I tested left me with a distinct urge to rub hand sanitizer all over my face.

Still, the view from inside the virtual world is striking. In one demo I was transfixed by a trio of body-painted Cirque du Soleil contortionists five feet in front of me. I looked to my left and let out a tiny gasp as a tiger waltzed by. Later, I care fully traversed a (real) rope bridge over a (virtual) snowy overpass. I took in the Milky Way while reclining in a $7,000 full-body massage chair. (I endure these hardships for you, dear reader.) On the CES show floor, long lines formed around VR “experiences” that looked like carnival attractions: a virtual boat ride with nausea-inducing seats, a virtual plane ride with Top Gun–style twists and flips, a scream-inducing virtual spaceship ride.

I could tell which people were experiencing VR for the first time by their dazzled expression after they removed the goggles. But without the trade show’s spinning chairs or relaxing massages, the novelty of virtual reality quickly wears off—especially when you notice the $800 price tag (excluding accessories). Cheaper headsets feel heavy after a few minutes. Some models are difficult to focus. All of them feel greasy. With the exception of elaborate gaming setups, you’re unable to move around (you can’t even see your hands), so the fun part—taking in the 360-degree views—requires awkwardly swiveling your head.

Worst of all, VR is isolating. Beyond the delight of watching someone else’s first virtual reality experience (a moment Samsung promoted aggressively in a holiday ad campaign for its Gear VR headset), secondhand VR is no fun. The headset-headphones combination that virtual reality requires takes “phubbing”—-snubbing your real-world companions for the digital distractions of your phone—to a new level.

VR amounts to exhilaration followed by discomfort and apathy—an emotional journey that mirrors the technology’s trajectory as a business. After years of barely containable buzz, Facebook’s Oculus Rift (fb) and HTC’s Vive (htc) became available last year, only to suffer from shipping delays and order cancellations. VR headsets and software missed sales predictions by 29% last year, bringing in just $2.7 billion, according to Digi-Capital, an M&A advisory firm. As a result, Digi-Capital slashed its sales projections for the market to $25 billion by 2021. It estimated that VR’s more social cousin, augmented reality (e.g., Pokémon Go), would generate a whopping $83 billion by the same date.

The hype surrounding VR today reminds me of the early days of 3D printers: In the future, every home will have one! Except every home didn’t need one, and they remain an expensive curiosity to most. Based on price and entertainment value, VR is in the same spot. Right now virtual reality is best experienced in a crowded, noisy convention center in Las Vegas—a place anyone would be eager to escape. Just bring your own Purell.?

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