上周三晚間莫斯科傳出消息，全球大宗商品交易行業(yè)龍頭嘉能可和卡塔爾投資局已經(jīng)同意斥資105億歐元（111億美元）收購(gòu)俄羅斯國(guó)家石油公司Rosneft 19.5%股權(quán)。此事一經(jīng)披露，立即被俄羅斯和西方媒體奉為能源行業(yè)年度最佳交易。

據(jù)稱，嘉能可正在回歸大宗商品交易本源。為了減輕巨額債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，過(guò)去兩年該公司一直在竭力緊縮開(kāi)支，而今則重新開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng)。

同時(shí)，俄羅斯已經(jīng)通過(guò)吸引大型外國(guó)投資者打破了國(guó)際上孤立無(wú)援的處境，不斷擴(kuò)大的預(yù)算缺口也得到了填補(bǔ)。

不過(guò)，盡管這些大數(shù)字當(dāng)然足以證明此項(xiàng)交易的合理性，但它幾乎絕不會(huì)是乍看上去的樣子，而且仍不明朗的實(shí)際交易情況牽扯的地緣政治因素很可能跟生意因素一樣多。

首先，雙方對(duì)交易的描述大相徑庭。在雙方會(huì)晤的電視直播片段中，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾·普京“祝賀”手握大權(quán)的Rosneft首席執(zhí)行官伊戈?duì)枴ぶx欽“完成了”價(jià)值105億歐元的交易（13年前謝欽策劃了俄羅斯政府從寡頭米哈伊爾 ·霍多爾科夫斯基手中沒(méi)收尤科斯石油公司的行動(dòng)，此后一直是普京政權(quán)背后的力量）。

嘉能可卻在上周四表示，它只是處于一項(xiàng)交易的“最終談判階段”，預(yù)計(jì)此項(xiàng)交易將在12月中旬完成，而且價(jià)值為102億歐元。

謝欽告訴俄羅斯媒體，兩位買家的出資額相同。但嘉能可按要求向倫敦證券交易所披露，該公司只會(huì)以股權(quán)形式出資3億歐元（所占權(quán)益僅為0.54%，而且還是“間接”持股），剩余資金則來(lái)自“卡塔爾投資局和非資源性銀行融資”。這些銀行融資是指一筆貸款，它實(shí)際上讓嘉能可避開(kāi)了持有Rosneft股份帶來(lái)的大多數(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

這筆交易中有一點(diǎn)很明確，那就是一份五年期協(xié)議，內(nèi)容是每天為Rosneft銷售22萬(wàn)桶石油。這將使嘉能可再次成為全球最大的俄羅斯石油交易商。美銀美林分析師估算，假設(shè)每桶原油給嘉能可帶來(lái)1美元收益，該公司在這五年期間可獲利4億美元，“相對(duì)于3.23億美元的持股，這樣的回報(bào)率非常有吸引力”。

《財(cái)富》雜志采訪的一位石油交易公司高管認(rèn)為，這樣的利潤(rùn)率“聽(tīng)上去很高”，但一切都取決于此項(xiàng)交易的定價(jià)方案。他指出，無(wú)論如何，為自己的交易業(yè)務(wù)爭(zhēng)取到數(shù)量如此龐大的石油對(duì)嘉能可來(lái)說(shuō)就是一項(xiàng)“巨大”成就。

然而，如果嘉能可不拿出那100億歐元，誰(shuí)會(huì)提供這筆資金呢？卡塔爾投資局尚未做出承諾，也未對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志請(qǐng)其發(fā)表評(píng)論的要求做出回應(yīng)。據(jù)《財(cái)富》雜志了解，意大利圣保羅聯(lián)合銀行安排了本次的融資事宜，但該行也未回應(yīng)《財(cái)富》的詢問(wèn)。

近幾周，莫斯科投行人士一直在猜測(cè)Rosneft可能無(wú)法找到外國(guó)買家，因而可能不得不自行從政府的控股公司手中購(gòu)買股份。確實(shí)，本周Rosneft已通過(guò)發(fā)行本幣債券籌集了約94億美元資金，而目前該公司并無(wú)其他可信依據(jù)來(lái)使用這樣一筆巨資。

上周五Rosneft方面無(wú)人可發(fā)表評(píng)論（《財(cái)富》雜志將在相關(guān)各方做出任何回應(yīng)后更新本報(bào)道）。

批評(píng)人士懷疑買下Rosneft債券的其實(shí)是俄羅斯其他國(guó)有機(jī)構(gòu)，而且它們隨后會(huì)將這些債券全部賣給俄羅斯央行。如果央行拿出錢來(lái)“接盤(pán)”，那就相當(dāng)于印錢來(lái)彌補(bǔ)政府的預(yù)算赤字。但俄政府不敢公開(kāi)這樣做——兩年前Rosneft斥資550億美元收購(gòu)TNK-BP時(shí)曾用過(guò)類似辦法，結(jié)果幾乎造成盧布崩盤(pán)。

俄央行女發(fā)言人上周五對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示，該行理事會(huì)尚未認(rèn)定Rosneft的債券符合俄央行的信貸抵押資格，而且也不清楚何時(shí)會(huì)做出相關(guān)決定。

但無(wú)法想象在俄羅斯會(huì)有人試圖阻撓此項(xiàng)交易。就在一個(gè)月前，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展部長(zhǎng)阿列克謝·烏柳卡耶夫的被捕轟動(dòng)一時(shí)，而此前他曾出手阻止Rosneft收購(gòu)另一家石油公司Bashneft。烏柳卡耶夫被指向Rosneft索賄200萬(wàn)美元，才能為此項(xiàng)交易開(kāi)綠燈。

本次交易還有一點(diǎn)讓人摸不著頭腦。俄政府曾指責(zé)卡塔爾等海灣國(guó)家（特別是沙特）支持?jǐn)⒗麃喌摹翱植婪肿印币约捌渌麌?guó)家因阿拉伯之春而出現(xiàn)的反政府勢(shì)力。這次俄羅斯卻將“皇冠上的明珠”拿出相當(dāng)一塊兒來(lái)（以低于市場(chǎng)價(jià)的水平）賣給這樣一位買家，可見(jiàn)俄羅斯是多么需要資金。

倫敦咨詢公司Ecstrat策略分析師伊瑪?shù)隆つ顾苏J(rèn)為：“在敘利亞戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)上卡塔爾和俄羅斯也許一直處于對(duì)立狀態(tài)，但在其他領(lǐng)域雙方有大量共同利益，特別是天然氣生產(chǎn)。俄羅斯正在進(jìn)入美國(guó)在中東留下的真空地區(qū)，因此，卡塔爾強(qiáng)化跟俄羅斯的關(guān)系是合理行為?！?（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

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作者：Geoffrey Smith

譯者：Charlie

審校：詹妮

When the news broke late on Wednesday in Moscow, Russian and western media trumpeted it as the energy deal of the year: Glencore GLNCY -1.25% , the world’s biggest commodities house, and the Qatar Investment Authority had agreed to buy a 19.5% stake in Rosneft, Russia’s national oil champion, for 10.5 billion euros ($11.1 billion).

Glencore–so the narrative went–was returning to its dealmaking roots, starting to grow again after two years of brutal retrenchment to cut a crippling debt burden.

Russia, meanwhile, had broken its international isolation by attracting major foreign investors, filling a gaping hole in its budget.

But while the numbers are certainly big enough to justify the billing, the deal is almost certainly not what it appears at first sight–and the still-murky reality of it most likely has as much to do with geopolitics as with business.

For starters, the two sides of the deal are saying very different things about it. In a televised excerpt of a meeting between the two, President Vladimir Putin “congratulated” Rosneft’s powerful CEO Igor Sechin on the “completion” of a deal worth 10.5 billion euros. (Sechin has been the power behind Putin’s throne ever since he orchestrated the Russian government’s seizure of Yukos from the oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky 13 years ago.)

However, Glencore yesterday said it is only in “final-stage negotiations”of a deal that it expects to close in mid-December, and that the value is only 10.2 billion euros.

Sechin told Russian media that the two buyers would contribute equally to the deal. But Glencore, under London Stock Exchange reporting obligations, said it would only contribute 300 million euros in equity (taking a tiny equity interest of 0.54%, and even that only “indirectly”), while the rest of the money was provided by “QIA and by non-recourse bank financing,” the latter being a loan that effectively insulates Glencore against most of the risks of owning Rosneft shares.

What is clear is that one part of the deal–a five-year agreement to trade 220,000 barrels a day of Rosneft’s oil–will restore Glencore to the position of the world’s biggest trader of Russian crude. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a back-of-the-envelope calculation, speculate that, if it can make $1 a barrel on that flow, Glencore will earn $400 million over the five years–”a very compelling return on $323 million in equity.”

One oil trading executive that Fortune spoke to reckoned that such a profit margin “sounds high,” but that everything depended on the deal’s pricing formula. Either way, he noted, securing such huge volumes of oil for its trading operations was a “huge” achievement for Glencore.

But if Glencore isn’t providing the 10 billion euros, who is? QIA hasn’t commented and didn’t respond to a request for comment from Fortune. Neither did Italy’s Banca Intesa SanPaolo, which Fortune understands to be the arranger of the financing.

In recent weeks, Moscow bankers had speculated that Rosneft would have to buy the shares from the government’s holding company itself, because it wouldn’t be able to find a foreign buyer. And indeed, Rosneft this week raised some $9.4 billion through the sale of local currency bonds, at a time when it has no other conceivable use for such a huge pile of cash.

No-one at Rosneft was available to comment Friday. (Fortune will update this article to reflect any later responses from the parties involved.)

Cynics suspect that the investors who took Rosneft’s paper are just other state-controlled Russian institutions who will dump the bonds at the Central Bank in due course. If the Central Bank creates money to refinance the bonds, then it will, effectively, be printing money to fund the government’s budget deficit. But the Kremlin is afraid of doing that openly: the ruble nearly collapsed two years ago when Rosneft used a similar trick to refinance its $55 billion acquisition of TNK-BP.

A Central Bank spokeswoman told Fortune Friday that its board hasn’t yet approved Rosneft’s bonds as eligible collateral for its credit, and that it’s not clear when it will take any such decision.

But it’s unthinkable that anyone in Russia will try to stop the deal going through. Only a month ago, Economy Minister Alexey Ulyukayev was sensationally arrested after trying to stop Rosneft buying another oil producer, Bashneft. Ulyukayev has been accused of extorting a $2 million bribe from Rosneft to approve the deal.

One final aspect of the deal also has heads spinning. Moscow has accused Qatar and other Gulf governments (notably Saudi Arabia) of supporting “terrorists” in Syria and rebels in other countries affected by the Arab Spring. That Moscow would sell a big chunk of its crown jewel (below market) to such a buyer illustrates how badly it needs the money.

“Qatar and Russia may have been opposing sides on the battlefield in Syria but have significant mutual interests elsewhere, including gas production in particular,” said Emad Mostaque of the London-based consultancy Ecstrat. “Russia is stepping into the vacuum left by the U.S. in the Middle East, and it makes sense for Qatar to build stronger relationships as a result.”