如果全球開始認(rèn)真執(zhí)行《巴黎協(xié)定》（Paris Accord），控制氣候變化，那么在十年內(nèi)，“碳?xì)浠衔飼r(shí)代”就將來臨。

這并非環(huán)保戰(zhàn)士對(duì)全球能源趨勢(shì)不切實(shí)際的預(yù)測(cè)，而是石油輸出國(guó)組織（Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC）的想法，這在他們對(duì)全球石油市場(chǎng)的最新預(yù)測(cè)中已有闡述。

OPEC在展望報(bào)告中指出，新能源技術(shù)的發(fā)展，以及飽受污染之苦的新興市場(chǎng)施加的政治壓力，導(dǎo)致人們對(duì)“石油峰值”的擔(dān)憂與十年前相比發(fā)生了巨大的變化。過去，人們擔(dān)心這種不可再生能源會(huì)迅速耗盡，如今卻開始擔(dān)心更新更環(huán)保的技術(shù)將迅速取代它。

誠(chéng)然，在石油供應(yīng)量占據(jù)全球總量超過三分之一的OPEC內(nèi)部，針對(duì)此事也沒有達(dá)成共識(shí)。OPEC認(rèn)為，原油需求量仍將有上升趨勢(shì)，到2040年達(dá)到每天將近1.1億桶。而今年的全球原油需求量大約為每天9,420萬桶。

不過這家總部設(shè)在維也納的組織認(rèn)為，在這兩種可能的情境中，隨著世界各國(guó)紛紛在節(jié)約能源和研究更加環(huán)保的可替代能源上進(jìn)行投資，原油的需求將提前見頂。如果采用電動(dòng)汽車和其他可替代能源的步伐加快，在進(jìn)程推進(jìn)最劇烈的情況下，原油需求的頂點(diǎn)將為每天1.009億桶。

OPEC的數(shù)據(jù)，掩蓋了他們目前在組織戰(zhàn)略上的巨大爭(zhēng)端，盡管他們并不會(huì)承認(rèn)這點(diǎn)。爭(zhēng)端的最新體現(xiàn)就是本月OPEC成員國(guó)的部長(zhǎng)會(huì)面，他們可能會(huì)通過決定，自2009年以來首次減少石油供應(yīng)量。在過去兩年中，沙特阿拉伯強(qiáng)迫合作伙伴接受更低的油價(jià)，并警告他們稱，如果他們?cè)噲D把價(jià)格抬高到繁榮年代，新技術(shù)就會(huì)迅速讓他們沒飯可吃，“讓依賴石油美元的國(guó)家破產(chǎn)?！?/p>

在預(yù)測(cè)原油需求見頂方面，OPEC甚至不是最危言聳聽的：歐洲最大的石油和天然氣供應(yīng)商荷蘭皇家殼牌（Royal Dutch Shell）的首席財(cái)務(wù)官西蒙·亨利在上周表示，原油的需求可能會(huì)“在今后5至15年內(nèi)”達(dá)到頂點(diǎn)。但是殼牌也有自己的想法，做出這樣的預(yù)測(cè)，很大程度上是因?yàn)樗麄冾A(yù)計(jì)天然氣將在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的許多方面取代石油。殼牌擁有大量天然氣資源，尤其在他們?nèi)ツ瓿饩拶Y收購BG Group之后。

因此，對(duì)包括位于美國(guó)的石油和天然氣公司而言，這種預(yù)測(cè)擁有十分明顯的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)和紐約州總檢察長(zhǎng)（New York Attorney General）調(diào)查?？松梨诘脑蛑?，就在于他們懷疑該公司在估值資產(chǎn)——主要是尚未開采的石油和天然氣時(shí)，瞞報(bào)了發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家政策重點(diǎn)的迅速轉(zhuǎn)變導(dǎo)致的油氣跌價(jià)對(duì)其資產(chǎn)的影響。

世界上的原油消費(fèi)量長(zhǎng)期來看一直處于上升軌道，而且最便宜的原油會(huì)最先被開采出來，因此我們可以認(rèn)為，使用較昂貴的剩余原油儲(chǔ)量仍然是一種經(jīng)濟(jì)的選擇。不過如果連原油最忠實(shí)的信徒OPEC都開始對(duì)此產(chǎn)生懷疑，這種看法就顯得站不住腳了。上周五，美國(guó)最大的石油和天然氣集團(tuán)也首次透露出這種觀點(diǎn)，表示其有可能減少多達(dá)46億桶油當(dāng)量的原油儲(chǔ)備。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

The sun could start setting on the “Hydrocarbon Age” within a decade if the world gets serious about implementing the Paris Accord on limiting climate change.

That’s not the dream of eco-warriors wishing away the realities of global energy trends. That is the opinion of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, as expressed in its latest outlook for the world oil market.

The forecast underlines how the development of new technologies and the political constraints of pollution-choked emerging markets have turned on its head worries about “peak oil” that dominated thinking barely a decade ago. Whereas concerns once centered on the exhaustion of a finite resource, they are now focused on how quickly new and cleaner technologies will substitute it.

Admittedly, it’s still not the base case scenario for the cartel that accounts for over a third of world oil supply. That still sees oil demand still on a rising trajectory (if only just) at a little under 110 million barrels a day of crude by 2040. That compares to global demand of an estimated 94.2 million b/d this year.

But in two “alternative scenarios,” the Vienna-based group expects demand to peak earlier, as countries around the world invest both in saving energy and in getting it from other, more environmentally friendly sources. In the most aggressive scenario, which assumes an accelerated timeframe for the adoption of electric vehicles and other alternative fuels, demand peaks at 100.9 million b/d

Although it wouldn’t admit it, OPEC’s figures belie the bitter current dispute over its strategy, the latest installment of which is due at the end of the month when ministers will supposedly meet to agree to their first coordinated output cuts since 2009. For the last two years, Saudi Arabia has pressed its partners into accepting lower prices, warning that if they try to squeeze prices back to boom-era levels, then new technologies will eat their lunch faster than you can say “bankrupt petrodollar state.”

OPEC isn’t even the most alarmist in terms of Peak Oil Demand: Simon Henry, chief financial officer of Europe’s largest oil and gas producer Royal Dutch Shell plc rds-a , said last week that oil demand may peak “between five and 15 years hence.” But Shell, too, has its agenda: its forecasts owe much to the fact that it expects oil to be superseded in many parts of the world economy by natural gas, a resource it has an awful lot of–especially after its massive bet on acquiring BG Group last year.

The forecasts thus have very clear real-world implications for oil and gas companies, including in the U.S. One of the reasons that the Securities and Exchanges Commission and the New York Attorney General are investigating ExxonMobil Inc. XOM 0.66% is that they suspect it of valuing its assets–mainly oil and gas still in the ground–on assumptions that don’t take into account how quickly policy priorities in both the advanced and developing worlds are changing.

In a world where the long-term trajectory for oil consumption is ever-upward and the cheapest oil is being produced first, there’s nothing unreasonable in assuming that reserves more expensive to develop are still economic. But if even OPEC, the truest of true believers in oil, is doubting that scenario, then that assumption looks less safe. Last Friday, the U.S.’s biggest oil and gas group took its first step to admitting as much, saying it could write down its reserves by as much as 4.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent.