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IPO陷入8年來(lái)低谷,市場(chǎng)不穩(wěn)定是主因

IPO陷入8年來(lái)低谷,市場(chǎng)不穩(wěn)定是主因

Lucinda Shen 2016-08-03
股權(quán)市場(chǎng)不穩(wěn)定,眾多PE更愿意尋求戰(zhàn)略投資者,而不是上市。

?

投資者可能仍在期待著下一家蘋果或者谷歌的上市,不過(guò)今年他們的選擇可能不多了。

合并與收購(gòu)研究公司Dealogic表示,今年美國(guó)的首次公開募股(initial public offerings, IPO)是2009年以來(lái)最不理想的一次。今年的前7個(gè)月中,54家美國(guó)公司進(jìn)行了IPO,共籌得115億美元,而去年同期有118次IPO,共籌得229億美元。

出現(xiàn)這一現(xiàn)象的部分原因,在于新IPO的重要來(lái)源:私人股權(quán)機(jī)構(gòu)開始越來(lái)越多地選擇把公司賣給戰(zhàn)略投資者,而不是公開上市。這些公司似乎擔(dān)心在不穩(wěn)定的市場(chǎng)行情中,他們能否通過(guò)公開市場(chǎng)獲得更大回報(bào)??紤]到今年只有兩家公司在IPO后股價(jià)有所提升,這種焦慮似乎得到了證實(shí)。他們分別是科技公司Twilio和Line,IPO后首日的股價(jià)在交易截止時(shí)分別上漲了近92%和27%。

與此同時(shí),私人公司也看到了繼續(xù)私有化的優(yōu)勢(shì):他們不必經(jīng)常回答監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)、激進(jìn)投資者和股東的問(wèn)題。此外,一些私人公司不必上市就能得到可觀的資助,而想要上市的公司也會(huì)同時(shí)考慮合并和收購(gòu)。作為回應(yīng),有些公司會(huì)得到難以拒絕的收購(gòu)要約。

這其中就包括信息安全公司Blue Coat System,他們放棄了6月的IPO計(jì)劃,以46.5億美元的價(jià)格被賽門鐵克收購(gòu)。Petco Holdings也同意以46億美元出售給了私募股權(quán)公司CVC Capital Partners和加拿大退休金計(jì)劃投資委員會(huì)(Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board),隨后放棄了2月的上市計(jì)劃。

實(shí)際上,但PE把自己賣給其他私人公司,在今年也算不上是新潮流。安永指出,截至2015年底,當(dāng)年IPO的數(shù)量與2014年基本一致——盡管PE支持的交易規(guī)模有所降低。隨著公司開始觀望混合經(jīng)濟(jì),更加注重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避,IPO的規(guī)模從2014年P(guān)E轉(zhuǎn)售總值的近25%下滑到了2015年的14%。

與此同時(shí),2016年也是科技公司合并與收購(gòu)的大年,目前的成交價(jià)值已經(jīng)達(dá)到了3,940億美元,在科技界的并購(gòu)史上排名第二。

未來(lái)可能還會(huì)有更多并購(gòu)發(fā)生。私人股權(quán)領(lǐng)域的“干粉滅火劑”(dry powder),即可用于交易的現(xiàn)金量,在過(guò)去幾個(gè)季度中不斷攀升。研究機(jī)構(gòu)Preqin的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,到今年6月底,現(xiàn)金量已經(jīng)達(dá)到了歷史新高的8,180億美元。現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題只在于這些資金將在何時(shí)流向何處。

從市場(chǎng)整體來(lái)看,這可能是個(gè)好消息。不過(guò)如果你想在投資組合里添上幾家漲勢(shì)喜人的新公司,選擇的余地恐怕就不多了。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:嚴(yán)匡正

Investors might be waiting for the next Apple or Google or even Facebook to go public—but they’re unlikely to have many to choose from this year.

This year has been the slowest for U.S. initial public offerings since 2009, according to mergers and acquisitions research firm, Dealogic. Fifty-four U.S. IPOs have raised $11.5 billion in the first seven months of this year—down from the $22.9 billion raised through 118 deals through the same period last year.

That’s partially because private equity firms, a key source of new IPOs, are increasingly selling their companies off to strategic investors rather taking them public. PE firms appear to be worried about whether they’ll be able to gain higher returns in the public space amid volatile market conditions. That anxiety is likely justified, given that just two IPOs have priced above range this year. Those two being tech companies Twilio, which closed up nearly 92% on its first day of trading, and Line, which closed up 27% from its IPO price.

Meanwhile private companies are also seeing the upside of staying private: No more answering constantly to regulators, activist investors, and shareholders. Additionally, not only are some private companies receiving sound funding without a listing, companies contemplating going public are also thinking about a merger or acquisition at the same time. In response, such companies are also receiving takeover offers they can’t refuse.

That includes Blue Coat System, a cybersecurity firm that abandoned its IPO plans in June to sell itself to Symantec for $4.65 billion. Petco Holdings also withdrew plans to go public in February, after agreeing to a $4.6 billion acquisition by CVC Capital Partners and Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board.

Private equity firms selling their companies to other private entities is not exactly a new trend this year—Ernest and Young noted by the end of 2015 that the number of IPOs that year were in line with 2014 numbers—though private-equity backed deals fell. IPOs shrank from nearly a quarter of total private equity exit value in 2014 to 14% in 2015, as the firms took stock of a mixed economy and more risk aversion.

?Meanwhile, 2016 has been the year of tech company mergers and acquisitions, with $394 billion worth in tech deals thus far? making this year the second largest in history for tech takeovers.

And it’s likely more is to come. The private equity industry has been growing its pile of “dry powder,”—cash available to do deals—over the past few quarters. That grew to a record $818 billion by the end of June, according to Preqin. Now it’s a matter of when, and where, those funds will go.

That’s probably good news for the market in general. But if you were looking for a few new growth companies to flesh out your portfolio, it’s likely to continue to be slim pickings.

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