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2020年美國將超越中國成制造第一強(qiáng)國

2020年美國將超越中國成制造第一強(qiáng)國

Chris Matthews 2016-04-10
隨著制造業(yè)對工人的需求不斷減少,能否獲得先進(jìn)技術(shù)和原材料,知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的保護(hù)措施是否完備,就成為決定一國制造業(yè)命運(yùn)的重要因素。在這些方面,美國都要勝過中國。

今年美國總統(tǒng)競選的關(guān)鍵話題之一是美國工業(yè)的競爭力,盡管唐納德?特朗普和伯尼?桑德斯經(jīng)常使用豐富多彩的語言來表達(dá)其觀點(diǎn):美國已經(jīng)喪失經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢。

兩位候選人極為蔑視最近達(dá)成的貿(mào)易協(xié)定。他們認(rèn)為,這些協(xié)定表明美國無法與中國或越南等國家競爭,后者的勞動力成本要低很多,同時也缺乏往往會給企業(yè)帶來沉重負(fù)擔(dān)的環(huán)境法規(guī)。

不過,如果你去問問真正的制造業(yè)高管,你就會發(fā)現(xiàn)他們對美國的未來要比這些政客樂觀得多。根據(jù)德勤公司與美國競爭力委員會聯(lián)合發(fā)布的2016年度《全球制造業(yè)競爭力指數(shù)》,美國制造業(yè)的競爭力高居全球第二位,僅次于中國。此外,全球制造業(yè)高管預(yù)計,到2020年,美國將成為全球制造業(yè)競爭力最強(qiáng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

A key theme in this year’s presidential race is competitiveness of American industry, though candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders tend to use more colorful language when describing their belief that the United States has lost its economic edge.

Both candidates despise recent trade deals, which they feel have proven that the U.S. can’t compete with countries like China and Vietnam, which have far cheaper labor and less onerous environmental regulations.

But if you ask actual manufacturing executives, they’re far more bullish on America’s future than many of its political leaders. On Thursday, professional services firm Deloitte teamed up with the Council on Competitiveness to release its 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index, showing that the United States is the second most competitive manufacturing economy after China. What’s more, global manufacturing executives predict that by 2020, the United States will be the most competitive manufacturing economy in the world.

美國排名持續(xù)飆升的原因在于,廉價勞動力對制造商成本的影響早已不復(fù)當(dāng)初。20世紀(jì)90年代,中國制造業(yè)的工人數(shù)量達(dá)到頂峰,之后開始下滑。隨著制造業(yè)對工人的需求不斷減少,一國制造業(yè)取得成功的重要因素就變?yōu)?,它能否獲得先進(jìn)的技術(shù)和原材料,知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的保護(hù)措施是否完備等等。在這些方面,美國都要勝過中國。

這不是說對制造業(yè)就業(yè)率下滑感到焦慮就是杞人憂天。盡管制造類企業(yè)認(rèn)為,美國是做生意的好地方,但他們在美國取得成功并不意味著,他們能如同半個世紀(jì)以前那樣,提供大量薪水豐厚的工作崗位。

在整整一代人的時間里,大多數(shù)工人的薪酬一直停滯不前。對于大部分沒有大學(xué)文憑的美國人而言,機(jī)遇正在不斷減少。因此,把糟糕的制造業(yè)就業(yè)情況看作一種可以被矯正的政治錯誤,是很自然的事情。然而,在過去20年里,中國喪失的制造業(yè)工作崗位其實(shí)比美國更多。這一事實(shí)有力地表明,對中國強(qiáng)硬完全無助于提高美國的就業(yè)率。

就如同農(nóng)業(yè)等眾多行業(yè)曾經(jīng)的經(jīng)歷一樣,制造業(yè)就業(yè)率的下滑是一種再自然不過的經(jīng)濟(jì)過程,而不是政治錯誤。隨著各個經(jīng)濟(jì)部門更加擅長它們所做的事情,它們需要的勞動力往往會變得越來越少。

所以,盡管我們可以理解總統(tǒng)候選人對制造業(yè)境況的關(guān)心,但那些聲稱自己能提高制造業(yè)就業(yè)率的人,要么是不了解他們所談?wù)摰念I(lǐng)域,要么就是在說假話。事實(shí)上,美國的政客們應(yīng)該贊美那些愿意在美國經(jīng)商的制造業(yè)高管,即便他們拯救不了苦苦掙扎的美國工人。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:嚴(yán)匡正

審校:任文科

So why has the United States been shooting up the ranks? Long gone are the days when cheap labor was the most important input for manufacturers. Total manufacturing employment in China peaked during the 1990s and has been falling ever since. And as manufacturing continues to reduce the number of workers needed, the important ingredients to success in the sector are whether advanced technologies and materials are available, and whether or not intellectual property protections are strong. The United States beats out China on both of these scores.

This is not to say that anxiety over the decline of manufacturing employment is misguided. While it’s good that manufacturing firms think that the United States is a great place to do business, their success in America will not have the same impact, in terms of providing a huge number of well-paying jobs, as they did a half-century ago.

Pay for most workers has been stagnant for a generation, and opportunities for the majority of Americans without a college degree are shrinking. It’s natural to look at the phenomenon of declining manufacturing employment as a political failure that can be rectified. But the fact that China has lost more manufacturing jobs than the U.S. over the past 20 years is a strong indication that playing hardball with the Chinese isn’t going to do anything to increase employment in the United States.

Rather than a political failure, the decline of manufacturing employment is a natural economic process that many industries, like agriculture, have gone through in past eras. As sectors become better at what they do, they often require fewer people to get the work done.

So while it’s understandable the state of manufacturing is of concern to presidential candidates, those who say they can bring back lost jobs in the sector either don’t know what they are talking about, or are being disingenuous. Instead, American politicians should be lauding the fact that manufacturing executives want to do business here, even if that fact won’t save the struggling American worker.

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