2016年開年以來對中國經(jīng)濟的恐慌或許正在緩解。

上周末公布的一系列經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)給中國這個全球第二大經(jīng)濟體帶來了一些希望。與此同時，上周五人民幣兌美元創(chuàng)一年新高，2月份中國的資本外流也明顯放緩。

這些數(shù)據(jù)并不出色，但也不是很糟糕。今年前兩個月中國社會消費品零售額同比上升10.2%，稍低于預期。5.4%的工業(yè)產(chǎn)值增長率也沒有達到預期。不過，占中國GDP 15%的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在2015年的淡季過后再次開始發(fā)力。住宅銷量增速達到2013年春季以來的最高水平，房地產(chǎn)投資也出現(xiàn)了一年半以來的首次正增長。

整體來看，中國經(jīng)濟似乎比幾個月前更加穩(wěn)定。中國央行甚至可以笑看做空人民幣的投機者損失數(shù)億美元的消息了。

上周末公布這些經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)時，十二屆人大第四次會議已接近尾聲。政府官員都信心滿滿，以勝利者的姿態(tài)宣布經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)止住下滑態(tài)勢。然而，這些與悲觀者看法相反的勝利口號看來只在短期內(nèi)有效。

新任證監(jiān)會主席劉士余表示，今后面臨市場失靈時，仍然會果斷出手。新股審核制也不會發(fā)生變化，這符合到目前為止的預期。對改革派來說，這兩方面的表態(tài)均讓他們感到失望。

此外，對于受到沉重打擊的非主要城市房地產(chǎn)市場，中國政府正在設(shè)法予以提振。住建部最近介紹了四川省某市在不到一年時間里消化房地產(chǎn)庫存的經(jīng)驗，途徑是補貼農(nóng)民工購房（減稅，降低首付比例）以及降低門檻，讓農(nóng)民工有資格享受社會福利，包括解決子女上學問題。

研究人士越發(fā)一致地認為，短期來看中國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)企穩(wěn)。中國央行還在上周末表示，如果經(jīng)濟仍未進入穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)，央行將保持警惕并實施寬松貨幣政策，以便進一步為經(jīng)濟提供數(shù)十億美元的資金支持。

不過，對于實施經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定方案必然提高負債水平的問題，中國政府說的不多。他們表示，這是今后的問題。

就目前而言，中國經(jīng)濟有望已成功避開了危機。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

校對：詹妮

The panic over China’s economy so far this year might be waning.

Taken together with the Friday news of the renminbi hitting a year-high against the U.S. dollar and capital outflows slowing way down in February, the host of economic figures China released over the weekend offers some hope for the world’s second-largest economy.

The economic figures weren’t great, but neither were they terrible. Retails sales for the months January and February grew at 10.2% year-over-year, slightly below estimates. Industrial production growth of 5.4% also missed estimates. However, real estate, responsible for 15% of the country’s GDP, is humming again after a slow 2015. Housing sales grew the fastest since spring 2013 and property investment growth experienced the first positive growth in half a year.

Put it all together and you have an economy that appears to be on steadier ground than it was a couple of months ago. Chinese central bankers can even delight in the news speculators are losinghundreds of millions on bearish currency bets.

The economic releases came over the weekend as Communist Party officials finish a week and a half of government meetings in Beijing. Officials sounded assured and victorious that the carnage has stopped.

But the victories they claimed over pessimists appear short-term.

The new stock market regulator said the country would continue intervening in the stock market to prop up prices when necessary. The IPO system requiring government approval for every listing wouldn’t change either, as had been expected by now. Both statements were disappointing for reformers.

Separately, the government is propping up the real estate market in hard-hit smaller cities. The Ministry of Housing explained recently how a city in Sichuan province reduced its housing inventory in less than a year by subsidizing home purchases by migrant workers (lower taxes, lower down payments) and loosening the requirements on those workers to qualify for social benefits including their children’s’ education.

There’s more consensus among researchers that the economy has stabilized for the short-term. And if it hasn’t, the central bank said this weekend it will stay vigilant with loose monetary policy to pump in billions more dollars of support.

But the government didn’t talk much about the rising debt level needed to support its stabilizing plans. That’s a problem for later, they signaled.

For now, there’s hope that crisis has been averted.