2016年將完全是由云創(chuàng)建主導(dǎo)的世界，“獨(dú)角獸”將在全新領(lǐng)域大展拳腳，而數(shù)據(jù)流動(dòng)的速度比光還快。

對(duì)于企業(yè)技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的局外人來(lái)說(shuō)，這聽(tīng)起來(lái)像是天方夜譚，或是有點(diǎn)像最新一部《星球大戰(zhàn)》電影。但作為企業(yè)技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的一位資深投資者，我曾在英特爾投資、Battery Ventures服務(wù)過(guò)，我預(yù)計(jì)一些看似異想天開(kāi)的預(yù)測(cè)將在2016年成為現(xiàn)實(shí)?，F(xiàn)在讓我們更細(xì)致地觀察企業(yè)技術(shù)領(lǐng)域在新的一年里有望出現(xiàn)的七大趨勢(shì)。

1.2016年將出現(xiàn)企業(yè)并購(gòu)熱潮

我認(rèn)為，戴爾和EMC最近的并購(gòu)協(xié)議，只是企業(yè)技術(shù)領(lǐng)域合并浪潮的開(kāi)端。在這一規(guī)模超過(guò)1萬(wàn)億美元的市場(chǎng)，思科系統(tǒng)、戴爾和IBM等公司占據(jù)了統(tǒng)治地位。為了爭(zhēng)奪全球每年3000億美元的信息技術(shù)投入，這些頂級(jí)公司正在與越來(lái)越多的初創(chuàng)公司展開(kāi)殊死競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。高德納公司表示，企業(yè)技術(shù)行業(yè)的顛覆時(shí)機(jī)已經(jīng)成熟。在云計(jì)算、大數(shù)據(jù)、新一代存儲(chǔ)技術(shù)和開(kāi)源技術(shù)等熱門領(lǐng)域，大批初創(chuàng)公司不斷涌現(xiàn)。舊有的大公司如今處在嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)中，許多公司需要采取激烈舉措才能維持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

認(rèn)識(shí)到這種新形勢(shì)的藍(lán)籌股公司或?qū)⒎e極地展開(kāi)并購(gòu)，以追趕當(dāng)今云計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的王者——亞馬遜云服務(wù)(AWS)。第二大巨頭微軟有可能通過(guò)收購(gòu)紅帽公司等私有云領(lǐng)域的佼佼者，來(lái)加強(qiáng)它在混合云領(lǐng)域的優(yōu)勢(shì)。鑒于用于數(shù)據(jù)中心的數(shù)千億美元資金開(kāi)始流向云領(lǐng)域，這種舉措可以幫助微軟從中分得一大杯羹。另一方面，在新任高級(jí)副總裁戴安妮?格林的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，谷歌也開(kāi)始重視企業(yè)技術(shù)和云服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)。這家搜索巨頭可能會(huì)通過(guò)收購(gòu)Mesos或Docker公司，來(lái)吸引Pinterest和Airbnb等大型互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司“全網(wǎng)規(guī)?！钡臄?shù)據(jù)負(fù)荷。IBM有可能收購(gòu)Openstack市場(chǎng)的領(lǐng)先企業(yè)，以期在私人云計(jì)算方面占得先機(jī)。

2.亞馬遜云服務(wù)只是剛剛開(kāi)始

與第一條相關(guān)，2016年是企業(yè)技術(shù)領(lǐng)域徹底接受公共云和混合云的一年。正因如此，繼2015年第二季度達(dá)成令人驚嘆的80%增長(zhǎng)率之后，亞馬遜云服務(wù)將在新的一年再創(chuàng)佳績(jī)。事實(shí)上，這家亞馬遜分公司有可能成為整個(gè)企業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施歷史上增長(zhǎng)最快，價(jià)值數(shù)十億美元的公司。另外，由于首席信息官反感廠商捆綁服務(wù)，Microsoft Azure在吸引新客戶方面也不會(huì)落后太多，將穩(wěn)居第二位。

3.開(kāi)源軟件正在吞食世界——不過(guò)怎么從中賺錢？

開(kāi)源將在2016年成為基礎(chǔ)軟件的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，各公司的首席信息官將接受源代碼開(kāi)放、軟件為先的策略。早期開(kāi)源市場(chǎng)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者成為主流以后，將分為兩派——一種有著明確的盈利模式，例如Cloudera*、MongoDB*、Elastic、Datastax和Mirantis*，另一種空有數(shù)百萬(wàn)下載量，卻沒(méi)有收入。第一類中那些更具經(jīng)濟(jì)頭腦的初創(chuàng)公司可能會(huì)在明年上市，為更多開(kāi)源公司在未來(lái)幾年上市奠定堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)。

4.獨(dú)角獸和“前獨(dú)角獸”將正面交鋒

獨(dú)角獸（估值超過(guò)10億美元的私人初創(chuàng)公司）和前獨(dú)角獸（估值下滑至10億美元以下的初創(chuàng)公司）的差距將在明年見(jiàn)分曉?？萍脊臼状喂_(kāi)募股后乏善可陳的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)，已經(jīng)給后期發(fā)展融資帶來(lái)了壓力，這種新情況會(huì)迫使許多獨(dú)角獸做出艱難的選擇。

基礎(chǔ)雄厚、發(fā)展迅猛的企業(yè)將咬緊牙關(guān)，勇敢上市，即使他們不得不接受低于最后一輪私人募資的估值——Pure Storage 和New Relic等公司已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了這種情況。我相信這類公司會(huì)選擇專注于創(chuàng)造長(zhǎng)期的股權(quán)價(jià)值，重視上市后的表現(xiàn)，Tableau和Splunk*等公司就是這么做的。

相反，前獨(dú)角獸公司已經(jīng)在他們的業(yè)務(wù)上一擲千金，于是不得不考慮縮小規(guī)模或是出售公司，以避免出局。注意：不要把募資能力和花錢水平混為一談！

5.快數(shù)據(jù)與大數(shù)據(jù)一樣重要

多年來(lái)，大數(shù)據(jù)一直十分流行，不過(guò)光是大數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)不夠了。隨著數(shù)據(jù)速度的增加，公司必須迅速分析大數(shù)據(jù)，立刻獲取可靠、可執(zhí)行的建議。這能幫助他們更好地服務(wù)客戶，支撐公司的盈利。我預(yù)計(jì)，Storm和Spark Streaming等新技術(shù)將在2016年被市場(chǎng)完全接受，電子商務(wù)和金融技術(shù)服務(wù)領(lǐng)域還將涌現(xiàn)出一批采用高速數(shù)據(jù)分析方法的實(shí)時(shí)應(yīng)用?！翱鞌?shù)據(jù)”是大數(shù)據(jù)的二次迭代，它將創(chuàng)造大量?jī)r(jià)值。

6.安全2.0：機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)可以擊敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的黑客

今年，你幾乎每天都能聽(tīng)到某家大型企業(yè)或政府機(jī)構(gòu)遭到黑客襲擊的新聞。而在2016年，我認(rèn)為將有阻擋黑客的全新安全解決方案面世。怎么阻擋？利用“機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)”。這個(gè)計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)新領(lǐng)域?qū)⒗媚Ｊ阶R(shí)別來(lái)尋找惡意目的，預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的漏洞。在今年早些時(shí)候，Splunk收購(gòu)了使用機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)技術(shù)搜尋網(wǎng)絡(luò)威脅的Caspida公司，這一趨勢(shì)由此獲得關(guān)注。今年9月份，大數(shù)據(jù)安全分析公司Exabeam也募得了多達(dá)2500萬(wàn)美元資金。預(yù)計(jì)在2016年，機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)會(huì)得到更廣泛的應(yīng)用，以應(yīng)對(duì)甚至提前預(yù)防復(fù)雜的網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊。

7.西方將在東方（不是中國(guó)！）尋求商業(yè)機(jī)遇

印度的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶已經(jīng)超過(guò)3.52億人，并且還在持續(xù)增加。該國(guó)的移動(dòng)和網(wǎng)絡(luò)級(jí)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，將成為美國(guó)企業(yè)軟件公司的巨大市場(chǎng)。對(duì)于這些初創(chuàng)公司來(lái)說(shuō)，印度購(gòu)物網(wǎng)站Snapdeal，F(xiàn)lipkart，以及打車應(yīng)用Ola Cabs，現(xiàn)在代表著巨大的銷售機(jī)遇。這類似于美國(guó)企業(yè)軟件公司過(guò)去將產(chǎn)品賣給Pinterest、LinkedIn和Twitter的情形，只不過(guò)印度可能蘊(yùn)含著更大的機(jī)遇，更快的增長(zhǎng)速度。由于沒(méi)有當(dāng)?shù)氐幕A(chǔ)軟件參與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，印度有可能顯著驅(qū)動(dòng)整個(gè)行業(yè)的云服務(wù)和數(shù)據(jù)分析開(kāi)支。

總體來(lái)說(shuō)，企業(yè)技術(shù)初創(chuàng)公司擁有巨大的力量來(lái)塑造和改變?cè)S多行業(yè)，但他們無(wú)法獨(dú)自實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)。通過(guò)與現(xiàn)有巨頭合作，擴(kuò)大開(kāi)源軟件、快數(shù)據(jù)和云計(jì)算的應(yīng)用，我們將發(fā)現(xiàn)更多的商業(yè)機(jī)遇，創(chuàng)造出并非幻想，而是真實(shí)存在的強(qiáng)大服務(wù)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

DharmeshThakker是Battery Ventures的普通合伙人，現(xiàn)居硅谷。他曾是英特爾資本公司的普通合伙人。

* 文中標(biāo)注星號(hào)的是Intel Capital或Battery在過(guò)去或現(xiàn)在投資的公司。

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

審校：任文科

Worlds created entirely of clouds. “Unicorns” racing through new landscapes. Data moving faster than the speed of light.

For those of you who don’t work in enterprise technology, this may sound like a fantasy world—or a little like the latest Star Wars movie. But based on my experience as an enterprise-tech investor, first at Intel Capital and now at Battery Ventures, I predict a few of these far-fetched scenarios could become reality in 2016. Here’s a closer look at seven enterprise-tech trends I believe will hit their stride in the coming year.

1.2016 will be an M&A bonanza.

The recent merger agreement between Dell and EMC was just the start of a consolidation tidal wave I expect to see next year in enterprise IT, where top companies like Cisco Systems CSCO 0.96% , Dell, IBM and others command a combined market capitalization north of $1 trillion. They are now locked in a battle with many startups for $300 billion of annual IT spending worldwide that, according to Gartner, is ripe for disruption. These startups operate in hot areas such as cloud computing, big data, next-generation storage and open-source technology. The incumbents are in serious jeopardy, and many will need to take dramatic steps to stay competitive.

Progressive blue chips will recognize this new state of affairs and aggressively get into the acquisitions game to catch up with Amazon Web Services (AWS), the current king of cloud computing. The number-two player, Microsoft MSFT 0.95% , could supercharge its hybrid- cloud play by purchasing a private-cloud leader such as Red Hat RHT 0.56% . This sort of move could help Microsoft capture some of the hundreds of billions of dollars in datacenter spending now shifting to the cloud. Google GOOG 0.30% , under new SVP Diane Greene’s leadership, will get serious about enterprise and cloud and could buy Mesos or Docker to attract “Web scale” workloads from huge Internet companies like Pinterest and Airbnb; IBM IBM 1.79% could take the lead in private cloud computing by acquiring an Openstack market leader.

2. AWS is just getting started.

Related to #1, 2016 is the year that enterprise tech will wholeheartedly embrace the public and hybrid cloud. Because of this, AWS is going to experience another record year — on top of the impressive 80% growth it logged during Q2 2015. This division of Amazon AMZN -0.20% could, in fact, become the fastest-growing, multi-billion dollar company in the entire history of enterprise infrastructure. And since CIOs dislike vendor lock-in, the agnostic Microsoft Azure won’t be far behind in signing up new customers, staying firmly entrenched in second place.

3. Open-source software is eating the world – but where’s the money?

Open source will become standard for infrastructure software in 2016, with CIOs adopting an open-source, software-first approach. Early open-source market leaders that have gone mainstream will split into two camps: those that have clear monetization models—like Cloudera*, MongoDB*, Elastic, Datastax, and Mirantis*—and those that have millions of downloads but no revenue to show for it. Some of the more financially savvy startups in the first category are likely to go public next year, forming a strong foundation for more open-source businesses to enter the public markets in coming years.

4. Unicorns and bloodied “unicorpses” will face off.

Next year will reveal the differences between unicorns (private startups whose values exceed $1 billion) and unicorpses (former unicorns whose value has slipped under $1 billion). The tech IPO market’s lackluster performance is already putting pressure on late-stage growth financings, and this new landscape will force many unicorns to make some tough choices.

Fast-growing enterprise companies with strong fundamentals will bite the bullet and bravely go public, even if they have to accept lower valuations than those recorded in their last private rounds – something that happened already with companies like Pure Storage PSTG 1.19% and New Relic NEWR 1.78% . I believe companies like these will choose to focus on long-term equity value creation, post-IPO, as has been the case with companies like Tableau DATA 4.65% and Splunk* SPLK -0.17% .

In contrast, ex-unicorn companies that spent extravagantly on their businesses could be forced to consider down-rounds or sale options to stay in the game. Note: Don’t confuse the ability to raise money with the desire to spend it!

5. Fast data is just as important as big data.

For years now, big data has been all the rage, but it’s no longer sufficient. With data velocity on the rise, companies must be able to rapidly analyze big data and get sound, actionable advice instantaneously. This will help them better service customers and also bolster their bottom lines. I predict new technologies like Storm and Spark Streaming will be fully embraced by the market in 2016, and we’ll witness the emergence of a new class of real-time applications in e-commerce and financial technology services powered by super-speedy data analytics. “Fast data” is the second iteration of big data, and it will create a lot of value.

6. Security 2.0: Machine learning can beat sophisticated hackers.

This year, you could barely go a day without hearing about yet another security hack at a major corporation or government agency. In 2016, I believe we’ll see the emergence of a new class of security solutions that attempt to outsmart hackers. How? By using “machine learning,” a field of computer science that leverages pattern recognition to extract malicious intent and make predictions about future exploits. The first wave of this trend was highlighted by Splunk’sacquisition earlier this year of Caspida, which uses machine-learning technology to ferret out cyber threats, and the $25 million raised in September by Exabeam, a big-data security analytics company. But in 2016 I predict we’ll see machine learning used more broadly to keep up with, and even pre-empt, sophisticated cyber attacks.

7. The West will look East (not China!) for business opportunities.

With more than 352 million Internet users and counting, India’s mobile and Web-scale ecosystem will become a large marketplace for U.S.-based, enterprise software companies. Indian shopping sites Snapdeal and Flipkart, and transit app Ola Cabs, now represent significant sales opportunity for these startups, similar to what we experienced in the U.S. with enterprise companies selling to Pinterest, LinkedIn LNKD 0.45% and Twitter TWTR 1.90% — only the Indian opportunity could be much larger and grow at a faster pace. And with no legacy infrastructure competing for attention, India could be a significant driver for overall industry cloud and analytics spending.

Overall, enterprise-tech startups have immense power to shape and move many industries, but they can’t go at it alone. By working together with well-established companies to further the adoption of open-source software, fast data and cloud computing, we’ll uncover even more new business opportunities— and create strong services that aren’t fantasy, but reality.

DharmeshThakker is a Silicon Valley-based general partner at Battery Ventures, and previously was with Intel Capital.

*Denotes a current or former Intel Capital or Battery investment.