自2012年以來，Oculus Rift一直都是虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)領(lǐng)域的“模范生”——去年，F(xiàn)acebook斥資20億美元收購Oculus，令其身價(jià)陡增?，F(xiàn)在，虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)愛好者們正在焦急等待著Oculus Rift頭盔的具體上市日期，但該公司仍然猶抱琵琶半遮面。

在11月末的“游戲大獎(jiǎng)”活動(dòng)上，許多人期望Oculus創(chuàng)始人帕爾默?勒基將公布這一產(chǎn)品上市日期和價(jià)格。但他只是介紹了一款即將上市的新游戲《搖滾樂隊(duì)VR版》。不過，Oculus此前曾宣布將在今年年底之前開始預(yù)售，這一計(jì)劃并沒有改變，帕爾默也在活動(dòng)上重申Oculus Rift將在2016年第1季度上市。

虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)界對(duì)Rift翹首以盼的同時(shí)，Oculus和三星聯(lián)合推出的產(chǎn)品Gear VR已經(jīng)吸引了許多人的注意。雖然還沒有官方統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，但Gear VR的銷量似乎異?；鸨?，這款設(shè)備在亞馬遜上已經(jīng)脫銷，三星官網(wǎng)也宣布，無法保證在12月25日前發(fā)貨。

準(zhǔn)備在明年大展身手的虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)頭戴設(shè)備還有HTC和Valve聯(lián)合推出的The Vive，以及索尼的PlayStation VR（原名“墨菲斯計(jì)劃”）。這兩款產(chǎn)品并未公布上市日期，不過預(yù)計(jì)將在明年上半年發(fā)售。

無論是在技術(shù)上，還是對(duì)于娛樂業(yè)而言，虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)都是一項(xiàng)巨大的進(jìn)步，但分析師警告，雖然媒體一直在熱炒“2016年是虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)元年”的說法（或許也是增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)的元年，這取決于微軟增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)產(chǎn)品Hololens的表現(xiàn)），但虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)行業(yè)在2016年或?qū)⒂瓉砺裏衢_局。

麥格理資本公司的本?沙克特表示：“打個(gè)不太常用的比方，比如棒球賽，我們認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在連第一局都尚未開始。在虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)/增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)領(lǐng)域，我們才剛剛進(jìn)入停車場(chǎng)，接下來才是停車場(chǎng)派對(duì)的時(shí)間。三星帶來了一箱六瓶裝的百威清啤酒，F(xiàn)acebook打來電話說要帶一種新的微釀啤酒，索尼可能帶來一款更大眾化的美味愛爾啤酒。到2016年底，我們就能清楚谷歌正在‘醞釀’什么，或許蘋果也會(huì)駐足觀望，觀察這個(gè)行業(yè)的形勢(shì)。只有在2016年之后，虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)/增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)的競(jìng)賽才算真正開始?！?/p>

在本周末的PlayStation體驗(yàn)會(huì)上，索尼將展示更多虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)，即將發(fā)布的新游戲?qū)⒃诖舜位顒?dòng)上首次亮相。2015年，Valve和HTC沒有按計(jì)劃發(fā)布The Vive，而HTC目前依然無法擺脫財(cái)務(wù)困境，這兩家公司基本上已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了沉默期。

內(nèi)容對(duì)于虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)至關(guān)重要，尤其是在游戲領(lǐng)域。市場(chǎng)上早已有開發(fā)工具，然而，盡管有報(bào)道稱注入虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)領(lǐng)域的投資已達(dá)到40億美元，但市場(chǎng)對(duì)虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)獲得全線突破的預(yù)期依舊相對(duì)較低。

沙克特認(rèn)為：“某些設(shè)備給出的承諾過高，最終可能無法達(dá)到預(yù)——這是不可避免的。但只要這些設(shè)備開始進(jìn)入消費(fèi)者手中，并且開發(fā)者發(fā)布的內(nèi)容能夠超越最初給人的新鮮感，帶來真正獨(dú)一無二的，有用的體驗(yàn)，那么在未來十年內(nèi)，隨著虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)/增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)的發(fā)展，娛樂、通信和許多企業(yè)功能都將發(fā)生翻天覆地的變化。”

就連投入大量資源創(chuàng)造虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)游戲的開發(fā)者也認(rèn)為，虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)將沿著曲線軌跡緩慢發(fā)展。

CCG Games公司有3個(gè)工作室，共40人正在開發(fā)虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)項(xiàng)目。CEO希爾馬?佩特松表示：“對(duì)于前三年，我們堅(jiān)持慎重的態(tài)度。鑒于當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)狀態(tài)，如果過早進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)，我們可能會(huì)高估前10年的發(fā)展，而對(duì)之后10年估計(jì)不足，這是很常見的。我們無法逆轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)光，但快速前進(jìn)則要容易得多?！?/p>

不過，也有分析師持樂觀態(tài)度：投資銀行派杰公司的分析師特拉維斯?賈克爾認(rèn)為，至2016年底，將有1220萬臺(tái)虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)頭盔進(jìn)入普通家庭。他預(yù)計(jì)，Rift的銷量將達(dá)到360萬臺(tái)，Gear VR可達(dá)到500萬臺(tái)。Vive預(yù)計(jì)可銷售210萬臺(tái)，而PlayStation VR預(yù)計(jì)可達(dá)到140萬臺(tái)。

每一款虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)系統(tǒng)均有各自的優(yōu)勢(shì)，2016年的群雄逐鹿將非常有趣。Oculus背后有實(shí)力雄厚的Facebook支持，所以很可能推出帶補(bǔ)貼的頭戴設(shè)備，以促進(jìn)消費(fèi)者采購。背靠Valve公司的虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)設(shè)備Vive，坐擁全球最大的電腦游戲發(fā)行系統(tǒng)Steam的支持。該系統(tǒng)擁有超過1.25億活躍用戶。而PlayStation VR則是唯一一款專為游戲機(jī)設(shè)計(jì)的系統(tǒng)，玩家無需依賴個(gè)人電腦的圖形和計(jì)算機(jī)處理能力，即可獲得始終如一的體驗(yàn)。

市場(chǎng)調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)The NPD Group的游戲行業(yè)分析師利亞姆?卡拉漢表示：“虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)備受矚目。很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間以來，我們一直在接受虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)文化的熏陶，例如《星際迷航》里的全息甲板，或者《X戰(zhàn)警》里的危險(xiǎn)室。事實(shí)上：我們已經(jīng)摸到了虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)世界的門檻?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

審校：任文科

Since 2012, the Oculus Rift has been the poster child for virtual reality—a status that was upgraded immeasurable last year when Facebook FB 1.72% bought Oculus for $2 billion. Now VR enthusiasts are waiting to learn exactly when they can own one, but the company continues to play coy.

Many expected Oculus founder Palmer Luckey to announce the system’s launch date and price during The Game Awards on Thursday night. Instead, he showcased an upcoming game called Rock Band VR. Oculus, though, has not changed its position that pre-orders for the system will begin before the end of the year, and Palmer reiterated the Q1 2016 launch date at the show.

As the VR world continues to wait for the Rift, it seems the public has become seemingly distracted by the Gear VR, a product resulting from a partnership between Oculus and Samsung SSNLF 4.76% . While no official figures are available for that system, it appears to be selling briskly, with Amazon AMZN 0.87% unable to keep it in stock and Samsung’s own site saying it can no longer guarantee delivery by Dec. 25.

Also warming up on deck for next year is The Vive, a VR headset by HTC and Valve, as well as Sony’s SNE 0.55% PlayStation VR (formerly known as Project Morpheus). Both products lack firm launch dates, but will likely be ready for delivery in the first half of next year.

Virtual reality is certainly a big advancement, both technologically and for the entertainment industry, but analysts warn that despite the anticipated media blitz and proclamations that 2016 is the year of VR (and, perhaps, augmented reality as well, depending on what Microsoft does with Hololens), it’s going to be a slow start.

“To over use the not used often enough baseball analogy, we don’t even think we are in the first inning yet,” says Ben Schachter of Macquarie Capital. “For VR/AR, we have just pulled into the parking lot and tailgating is about to begin. Samsung just arrived with a six-pack of Bud Light, Facebook FB 1.72% called and is bringing a new microbrew, and Sony might bring a more mass-market palatable ale. By the end of 2016, we’ll have a better sense of what’s been brewing at Google GOOG 1.90% , Microsoft MSFT 3.16% , and perhaps Apple AAPL 3.32% might even stop by just to see where this is all going. Only after 2016 will the VR/AR game begin.”

Sony, meanwhile, is expected to show off more of its VR technology this weekend at its PlayStation Experience fan event, which includes first looks at unannounced games that will soon launch. Valve and HTC have largely gone into quite mode after missing their scheduled 2015 commercial launch and HTC’s ongoing financial troubles.

Content is critical for VR, especially in the gaming space. While developer kits have been around for some time, expectations for true breakthrough titles are still fairly low on all fronts, despite the reported $4 billion investors have put into the field.

“It is … inevitable that some of these devices will overpromise and under deliver,” says Schachter. “Yet, once these devices begin to get into consumers hands and developers launch content that moves beyond the ‘wow’ moment and into uniquely, useful experiences, it will be clear that entertainment, communication, and many enterprise functions will change dramatically over the coming decade as VR/AR evolve.”

Even developers who are pouring resources into creating VR games say they expect the technology to be on a slow curve trajectory upwards.

“We’re taking a cautionary view for the first three years,” says Hilmar Pétursson, CEO of CCP Games, which has 40 people in three studios working on VR projects. “When you’re early to a market like this, it’s extremely common to overestimate what happens in the first 10 years and underestimate what happens in the next 10. … It’s hard to wind back the clock, but it’s much easier to fast forward.”

However, some analysts are a bit more optimistic: Piper Jaffray analyst Travis Jakel says that by the end of 2016, there could be 12.2 million VR headsets in homes. He expects Rift sales to come in at 3.6 million and Gear VR to hit 5 million. Vive, meanwhile, is estimated to sell 2.1 million units, while PlayStation VR is slated to sell 1.4 million.

Each VR system has its own advantages that should make the 2016 battle interesting. Oculus has the deep pockets of Facebook behind it, which could result in a subsidized headset, aiding consumer adoption. Vive’s association with Valve gives the headset a link to Steam, the largest PC gaming distribution system with over 125 million active users. Meanwhile, PlayStation VR is the only system designed for consoles, ensuring that players get a consistent experience that’s not reliant on their PC’s graphics and computer processing power.

“It has a lot of buzz,” says Liam Callahan, games industry analyst for The NPD Group. “We’ve been promised VR culturally, whether it’s the holodeck in Star Trek or the Danger Room in X-Men, for a long time. And the fact is: We’re on the doorstep of it.”

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

審校：任文科