一個多月來，有不少消息稱，蘋果正在想辦法讓Apple Pay支付體系能夠支持用戶間的相互轉賬。

這項服務類似于PayPal及其子公司Venmo推出的P2P支付服務。Facebook和谷歌等行業(yè)巨頭也分別推出了P2P支付服務。P2P支付可以用于朋友聚會后的算賬，父母們也可以用它給上大學的子女轉生活費。這項功能本質上是一種快捷省事的付錢手段。

在此之前，蘋果一直沒有踏入這個正在興起的市場。Apple Pay用戶可以使用iPhone或蘋果手表在實體店里購買產品，或是通過移動應用購物，但就是不能互相轉賬。

蘋果沒有回應記者就該P2P支付服務計劃提出的置評請求。

一旦蘋果真的推出這項服務，它可能要面臨一筆不小的成本。克羅內咨詢公司CEO理查德?克羅內曾在接受《財富》采訪時指出，如果蘋果的P2P支付服務不收費，每一筆交易都可能會讓該公司付出高達3美元的成本。

不過，這位數(shù)字支付行業(yè)專家還表示，蘋果可能會有很好的理由忍受這些成本。他指出：“對等轉賬應用具有病毒式傳播能力，也就是說，如果我給你轉賬50美元，而你還尚未注冊Apple Pay，這就相當于我資助你注冊了這項服務。蘋果會愿意自掏腰包來刺激Apple Pay的廣泛采用?！?/p>

福雷斯特公司分析師朱莉?阿斯克認為，隨著Apple Pay通過P2P支付吸引來更多的用戶，屆時將有“更多商家愿意接受Apple Pay”，而這將能夠“產生網(wǎng)絡效應”。

對于蘋果而言，P2P支付或許蘊含著巨大的潛在經濟利益。杰富瑞公司去年發(fā)布的一份分析報告顯示，蘋果公司有0.15%的收入來自Apple Pay的信用卡交易，還有0.5%來自借記卡交易。根據(jù)福雷斯特提供的數(shù)據(jù)，有幾百萬人至少曾使用過一次Apple Pay，其中，在近三個月里沒有使用該服務的人中，有13%的用戶表示有興趣再次使用Apple Pay。再考慮到那些可能通過P2P支付注冊的用戶，它不失為一個獲得財務成功的秘訣。

克羅內表示，目前，美國人通過P2P支付轉賬的數(shù)額只有75億美元左右——與激活的Apple Pay用戶可能催生的交易額相比，這一數(shù)字簡直不值一提。

克隆表示：“這根本無法跟實體店鋪銷售點系統(tǒng)的6.2萬億美元交易額相提并論。添加P2P支付功能最終也是為了增進Apple Pay在實體店支付體系中的使用。”

除此之外，推出P2P支付服務以及拓展Apple Pay網(wǎng)絡可能還會給蘋果帶來更多好處。IHS科技公司移動總監(jiān)杰克?肯特表示，P2P支付有利于蘋果將用戶“鎖定”在它的產品（包括iPhone和蘋果手表）上，用肯特的話說，就是“進一步促進它的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)?！?/p>

他表示：“為Apple Pay 添加P2P功能有一石二鳥之效，既可以將用戶綁定到蘋果生態(tài)系統(tǒng)上，還能促進設備銷量收入?！?/p>

克羅內還指出了另一個潛在好處：掌握用戶信息。這些信息包括一個人在移動設備上做了什么，以及他們通過移動設備購買了什么，每名用戶每年諸如此類的相關信息的綜合價值不低于300美元。他是根據(jù)企業(yè)投放到用戶移動錢包中的廣告和優(yōu)惠收入算出這個數(shù)字的。但由于蘋果一直對這個問題保持沉默，我們尚不清楚該公司是否會利用用戶信息來產生這種潛在收益。

克羅內表示：“我能知道你在什么地方，購買了什么，而且我還能在你支付前、支付中和支付后與你進行互動，這就是數(shù)據(jù)對于移動錢包發(fā)行方的價值?！?/p>

總之，專家們認為，蘋果如果愿意為用戶的每筆轉賬交易付出3美元的成本，那么Apple Pay處理的交易量將顯著提高一個量級，此外它還能吸引到新的用戶，并收集到更多用戶數(shù)據(jù)。但如果蘋果真的想沿這條路走下去，那么它還必須掃清一個巨大的障礙：PayPal。

多年以來，人們已經習慣了用PayPal互相轉賬，包括在酒吧AA制買單，或是玩夢幻橄欖球游戲時給朋友付點彩頭。不過近年來，PayPal公司已經在P2P支付戰(zhàn)略上加倍下了重注。

PayPal在今年早些時候推出PayPal.Me服務。這項服務的用戶可以創(chuàng)建一個獨特的PayPal賬號，這樣一來，親朋好友就可以更加方便地給他或她轉賬。P2P支付在PayPal長期戰(zhàn)略中的重要性從2013年開始就已經非常明顯了，PayPal當年以8億美元的價格收購了Venmo的所有者、主要從事支付處理業(yè)務的Braintree公司。今年10月，PayPal聲稱，Venmo服務將進入實體店鋪，以便在龐大的零售市場捕捉一定的份額。

PayPal是蘋果在支付領域的一個強大的對手。正如克羅內指出的那樣，PayPal在P2P支付領域可以說“領先了競爭對手好幾光年”。PayPal擁有1.73億活躍用戶，另外他還相信，PayPal還有數(shù)億名不活躍的用戶，但他們隨時都可能被P2P支付功能“激活”。這將給PayPal帶來更大和更有利可圖的機會。

PayPal的全球消費產品與工藝副總裁喬安娜?蘭伯特對《財富》表示：“通過P2P服務，我們看到了用戶參與度方面存在的機會。那些使用我們的服務進行轉賬的用戶，也是對PayPal參與度最高的用戶，而且他們總體上傾向于使用我們的服務進行更多的消費?！?/p>

換句話說，Apple Pay可能會陷入一場艱巨的戰(zhàn)斗，但推出P2P服務的好處還是很明顯的：如果蘋果真的能夠贏得“轉賬大戰(zhàn)”，這就意味著它將迅速獲得大量現(xiàn)金。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

審校：任文科

For over a month, a number of news sites have published articles saying that Apple is working on a way for users of its Apple Pay payment system to send money to each other. The latest report came from Bloomberg on Tuesday.

The service would be similar to peer-to-peer payment services from PayPal and its subsidiary Venmo. Industry giants Facebook and Google also offer peer-to-peer payments. Peer-to-peer payments can be used among friends to settle up after a night of partying or by parents to send their cash-strapped college kids some funds. The feature is essentially a quick and relatively painless way to send cash.

Apple, however, has been conspicuously absent from this emerging market. Its Apple Pay service lets people use their iPhones and Apple Watches to buy products in brick-and-mortar stores and through mobile apps—but not send money to one another.

Apple did not respond to a request for comment about any plans for peer-to-peer payments.

If and when the company introduces the service, it could face some major costs. In an interview with Fortune on Tuesday, Richard Crone, CEO of Crone Consulting, said that transactions could cost Apple up to $3 each if it doesn’t charge users for them.

But Crone, a digital payment industry expert, argued that Apple may find good reason to swallow those charges. “Peer-to-peer transfers have a viral application, meaning if I send you $50 and you’re not enrolled in Apple Pay, then I’ve essentially funded your signing up for the service,” he said. “It’s a self-funded incentive for encouraging the adoption of Apple Pay.”

Forrester analyst Julie Ask argued that as Apple signs on Apple Pay users through peer-to-peer payments, there will be “more merchants who will want to accept Apple Pay.” Peer-to-peer payments, she said, “creates a network effect.”

The possible financial benefit for Apple could be major. According to a Jefferies analyst report from last year, Apple generates .15% in revenue on all credit card transactions through Apple Pay and half of one cent on debit card transactions. According to Forrester Data, millions of people have at least used Apple Pay once. Of those who haven’t used the service in the last three months, 13% say that they are interested in going back. Add that to the people who could sign up through peer-to-peer payments, and it’s a recipe for financial success, Crone argues.

He says Americans send just $7.5 billion to each other via peer-to-peer payments—a pittance compared to what Apple could generate in active Apple Pay users spending cash.

“That’s dwarfed by the $6.2 trillion spent at physical point-of-sale,” Crone says. “Adding peer-to-peer is all about increasing adoption for the eventual use of Apple Pay for in-store payments.”

But there may be even more upside to Apple introducing peer-to-peer payments and expanding its network. Jack Kent, director of mobile for IHS Technology, said that the company would be getting customers locked into its products, including the iPhone and Apple Watch, or as he put it, “furthering its ecosystem.”

“Being able to integrate transactions with Apple Pay…would be another way to tie users into its ecosystem and drive revenues from device sales,” he says.

Crone added one more potential benefit: owning user information. He estimated that the combined value of knowing what a person is doing on a mobile device and what they’re purchasing is worth $300 per user per year. He based that figure on the revenue companies can generate from ads and discounts delivered to them through their mobile wallets. Still, Apple’s silence on the issue makes it unclear whether the company would use customer data to generate that potential revenue.

“That’s the value of the data to the issuer of the wallet,” he says. “I know where you are, what you bought, and I can interact with you before, during, and after payment.”

In sum, Apple, for the cost of up to $3 per money transfer, can handle significantly more transactions, attract new users, and collect more user data, experts say. But there is still one big issue the company must overcome if it decides to go down that path: PayPal PYPL -2.25% .

For years, people have used PayPal to send money to others for everything from settling up at the bar to paying a friend for a fantasy football league. But in recent years, the company has doubled down on the strategy.

Earlier this year, PayPal premiered PayPal.Me, a service that lets users create a unique PayPal ID to make it easier for friends and family to send them money. The importance of peer-to-peer payments to PayPal’s long-term vision was clear in 2013 when the company acquired then-Venmo owner Braintree, a payment-processing company, for $800 million. It has since expanded its services, and in October, said that Venmo would now work at registers in brick-and-mortar stores in an attempt to capture a share of that massive retail market.

PayPal is a formidable foe for Apple in payments. As Crone said, in the realm of peer-to-peer payments, PayPal is “l(fā)ight years ahead” of its competitors. PayPal has 173 million active users. Crone believes that the company has hundreds of millions of users who are inactive but could be “activated” by peer-to-peer payments at any time. That would create an even greater—and profitable—opportunity for PayPal.

“At PayPal, we see a great engagement opportunity with peer-to-peer payments,” PayPal’s vice president of global consumer product and engineering Joanna Lambert told Fortune. “Customers who use our services to pay and get paid back are some of our most engaged and tend to spend more using our services overall.”

In other words, Apple Pay could be in for a serious battle. But the upside is clear: winning the battle over friends sending friends money means raking in massive sums of cash.