第21屆聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化大會(huì)將于11月30日-12月11日在巴黎舉行。會(huì)議旨在完成2009年哥本哈根氣候大會(huì)提出的目標(biāo)——達(dá)成一項(xiàng)抑制全球氣候變暖的協(xié)定，確保地球升溫不超過工業(yè)革命前2攝氏度。這意味著，抑制碳排放仍將成為會(huì)議的核心內(nèi)容。

大會(huì)召開前夕，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)發(fā)布了一份全球能源報(bào)告，對(duì)清潔能源的未來做了一番展望。不幸的是，全球采用清潔能源的速度還不夠快，不足以避免危險(xiǎn)的氣候變化。這些令人擔(dān)憂的發(fā)現(xiàn)，也將給下月即將在巴黎召開的全球氣候變化談判增添一些素材。

這份報(bào)告洋洋灑灑長(zhǎng)達(dá)718頁(yè)，你不必親自去啃如此厚重的文字了，我們已經(jīng)總結(jié)歸納了該報(bào)告的十大要點(diǎn)。

清潔能源將在2030年后主導(dǎo)電力供應(yīng)：2030年之后，水力、太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能和其他可再生能源將取代煤炭，成為最大的發(fā)電來源。這一方面歸功于全球在清潔能源發(fā)電廠領(lǐng)域的投資，另一方面則歸功于歐美發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家煤炭發(fā)電量的下降。到2040年，清潔能源的發(fā)電量將超出煤炭發(fā)電量13%。

該報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，清潔能源已經(jīng)占據(jù)去年全球新增發(fā)電量的近半數(shù)。全球清潔能源部門目前共聘用了770萬名雇員，這還不包括水電領(lǐng)域。

中國(guó)日益增長(zhǎng)的服務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)能源業(yè)影響重大：一向被譽(yù)為“世界工廠”的中國(guó)正在逐漸擺脫對(duì)制造業(yè)和重工業(yè)的依賴，轉(zhuǎn)而圍繞服務(wù)業(yè)培育更多的產(chǎn)業(yè)。其結(jié)果就是，中國(guó)的能源密度（即單位經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的能源消耗）近年來呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)，這將給全球能源消費(fèi)帶來重大影響。在過去20年里，中國(guó)已經(jīng)將每單位未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的能耗降低了85%。

經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)開始與碳排放脫鉤：多年以來，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展一直與能源消費(fèi)緊密相關(guān)。一般來說，大量消耗能源的國(guó)家，其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)往往比較強(qiáng)勁。但隨著清潔能源技術(shù)的興起，少數(shù)歐洲國(guó)家已經(jīng)可以在不影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的情況下降低其碳排放水平。挪威、丹麥、芬蘭、冰島和瑞典等正是這一潮流的代表。

國(guó)際能源署發(fā)現(xiàn)，2014年，全球碳排放水平基本與上年持平，甚至還略有降低，而全球經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際上達(dá)到了一個(gè)不錯(cuò)的增幅。這或許是一個(gè)異?，F(xiàn)象，可能在近期內(nèi)不會(huì)重現(xiàn)。但這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)也表明，除了那些最早采用清潔能源技術(shù)的歐洲小國(guó)和富國(guó)，碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的“脫鉤”趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)開始延伸到更大范圍。

印度將成為燃煤大國(guó)：未來幾十年，印度對(duì)能源的需求可以說是貪婪的，印度的能源需求增幅將冠絕全球。盡管其中部分需求可以用風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能解決，但印度終將是煤炭消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)最多的國(guó)家。該報(bào)告還表示，到2020年，印度將成為全球最大的煤炭進(jìn)口國(guó)。

化石能源行業(yè)將獲得比清潔能源行業(yè)更多的補(bǔ)貼：國(guó)際能源署表示，化石燃料行業(yè)2014年共獲得了4900億美元的補(bǔ)貼。這真是一個(gè)令人吃驚的數(shù)字，因?yàn)槊禾?、石油和天然氣本來就是相?duì)成熟的行業(yè)。相比之下，清潔能源行業(yè)在全球只獲得了1120億美元的補(bǔ)貼。不過，國(guó)際能源署也指出，到2040年，全球?qū)η鍧嵞茉吹难a(bǔ)貼將增長(zhǎng)至1700億美元。

中國(guó)主宰太陽(yáng)能電池板：2014年，全球70%的太陽(yáng)能電池板都是由中國(guó)大陸或臺(tái)灣地區(qū)的企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的。國(guó)際能源署指出，每10塊太陽(yáng)能電池板就有9塊是亞洲制造的。

中印將領(lǐng)軍清潔能源：全球超過三分之二的清潔能源將來自中國(guó)、印度和拉美國(guó)家等發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體。這些國(guó)家的電力需求增長(zhǎng)得極快，因此他們正在投資建設(shè)各種發(fā)電設(shè)施——不管是清潔的還是傳統(tǒng)的。光是中國(guó)就將占據(jù)全球清潔能源發(fā)電量增幅的四分之一以上。

到2040年，全球太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電將達(dá)1萬億瓦：太陽(yáng)能電池板將成為一項(xiàng)全球主流的清潔能源技術(shù)。到2040年，全球太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電將超過1萬億瓦。相比之下，目前美國(guó)投入使用的太陽(yáng)能只有220億瓦。

水電vs其他清潔能源：新的水電站大部分將被建在發(fā)展中國(guó)家，其中許多國(guó)家已經(jīng)在理想的位置上建起了水壩。在目前已經(jīng)投入使用的清潔能源中，水電已然占據(jù)相當(dāng)大比重，但新的清潔能源投資將朝著風(fēng)能、太陽(yáng)能與水電混合的方向發(fā)展。其中風(fēng)能將占據(jù)全球清潔能源投資的35%，太陽(yáng)能將占據(jù)28%，水電將占據(jù)22%。

清潔能源的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力有多強(qiáng)？國(guó)際能源署的報(bào)告指出，如果不計(jì)算補(bǔ)貼的話，2014年有84%的清潔能源（不包括水電）是沒有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的。到2040年，62%的清潔能源電力將仍然缺乏競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。換言之，到2040年，只有三分之一的清潔能源在沒有補(bǔ)貼的情況下還有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

?

譯者：樸成奎

審校：任文科

The International Energy Agency, an industry watchdog, released its an annual global report on Tuesday that described a future that will be heavily powered by clean energy.

But, unfortunately, the world won’t adopt cleaner quickly enough to avoid dangerous changes in the climate, the report said. The Paris-based group’s disturbing findings will add fodder to the global climate change negotiations, which kick off in Paris next month.

Despite the warning, the future of clean energy is bright, but it depends on many complicated factors. Here are some of the nuances and highlights from the 718 page report.

Clean energy will dominate electricity after 2030: Electricity from renewable sources including hydropower, solar, wind and others will replace coal as the largest source of electricity shortly after 2030. That’s thanks to both future global investment in clean energy power plants, and also a decline in coal power use in developed nations like the U.S. and in Europe. By 2040, there will be 13% more energy generated by clean power than by coal plants, the report said.

Clean energy already contributed to almost half of the world’s new power generation capacity added last year, the report found. Collectively clean energy sectors now employ 7.7 million people worldwide, not including for hydropower.

China’s growing service economy is actually a big deal for energy: China, long the world’s factory, has been working to build more industries around services instead of its historic focus on manufacturing and heavy industry. As a result, the country’s energy intensity—energy consumption per unit of economic output—has been declining over the years and that is having a major effect on global energy use. China has been able to reduce the amount of energy it consumes per unit of future economic growth by 85% over the last two decades.

Economic growth and carbon emissions are splitting up: For years, economic development has been tied to energy use. Generally, countries that use a lot of energy have a more robust economy. But with the rise of clean energy technologies, a handful of small European countries have been able to lower their carbon emissions without dampening their economic growth. Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden have led this trend.

But now the IEA has found that global carbon emissions remained flat, or declined ever so slightly, in 2014, while the world’s economy actually grew at a decent pace. That is likely an anomaly, and won’t be repeated in the near future. But the data hints that the so-called “decoupling” of carbon emissions and economic growth is starting to happen on a broader scale outside of those small, wealthy early-adopter nations.

India to embrace coal: India’s demand for energy will be insatiable over the next few decades. The country will show the single largest share of growth in global energy demand. While some of that demand will be addressed by wind and solar power, India will also be the nation that adds the most coal consumption. India will become the world’s largest importer of coal by 2020, the report said.

The fossil fuel industry collects far more subsidies than clean energy sectors: The IEA says that the fossil fuel industry received $490 billion in subsidies in 2014. That’s truly shocking considering coal, oil and gas are relatively mature industries. In comparison clean power received $112 billion in global subsidies in 2014. The subsidies for clean energy will rise to $170 billion by 2040, the IEA said.

China dominates solar panels: Companies based in China and Taiwan produced 70% of the world’s solar panels in 2014. More than 9 out of 10 solar panels were made in Asia, says the IEA.

China, India will lead clean energy: More than two thirds of the increase in the world’s clean power generation will come from developing countries like China, India, and Latin America. Electricity demand is growing so rapidly in these countries that they are investing in all forms of power generation, from dirty to clean. China on its own will account for more than a quarter of the world’s increase in clean power generation.

A terrawatt of solar by 2040: Solar panels will become a key mainstream clean energy technology worldwide. By 2040, there will be more than 1,000 gigawatts (or a terrawatt) of solar installed globally. In comparison the U.S. only has about 22 gigawatts of solar in use today.

Hydropower vs. other forms of clean energy: New hydropower plants will largely be built in developing countries, many of which have already tapped most of the optimal regions for dams. Hydropower accounts for much of the clean power in use today, but new investments in clean energy will go toward a combination of wind, solar and hydropower. Wind will take 35% of the global investment for clean energy, while solar will take 28%, and hydropower 22%.

How competitive is clean energy? The IEA report found that in 2014, 84% of clean energy (not including hydropower) was uncompetitive without subsidies. By 2040, 62% of clean energy generation will still remain uncompetitive. Put another way, the report says that only one third of clean energy generation will be competitive without subsidies by 2040.