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虛擬現(xiàn)實即將走向主流,證據(jù)在這里

虛擬現(xiàn)實即將走向主流,證據(jù)在這里

Don Reisinger 2015年10月11日
分析師認為,虛擬現(xiàn)實技術(shù)很快就會大顯身手。

????游戲公司無疑已經(jīng)看到了虛擬現(xiàn)實的價值,但其他行業(yè)很快也會開始利用這項“黑科技”。

????虛擬現(xiàn)實并非新生事物。運勢不濟的任天堂Virtual Boy及另外幾種虛擬現(xiàn)實設(shè)備早在幾十年前就擺上了商店貨架,但出于種種原因,這些產(chǎn)品都以失敗告終。盡管初戰(zhàn)不利,但近幾年虛擬現(xiàn)實越來越受歡迎。這得益于Facebook旗下的Oculus,該公司計劃在2016年推出Rift VR頭盔。其他幾家公司也在爭奪這個市場, HTC拿出的是Vive VR頭盔,索尼推出了PlayStation VR頭盔,三星的同類產(chǎn)品則是Gear VR頭盔。

????Oculus讓虛擬現(xiàn)實重新得到關(guān)注以來,這項技術(shù)的重點就一直放在游戲上。鑒于使用者需要戴上頭盔,然后進入一個3D虛擬世界,視頻游戲看來是虛擬現(xiàn)實技術(shù)的理想載體。游戲者可以左右擺頭,在游戲世界里環(huán)視四周,從而獲得前所未有的情境體驗。

????研究機構(gòu)高德納負責消費者技術(shù)研究的主管布萊恩·布勞接受《財富》雜志采訪時說:“虛擬現(xiàn)實的首要目標就是游戲,原因是游戲世界本來就是三維空間,特別是PC和主機游戲。虛擬現(xiàn)實需要完善的3D引擎來生成圖像,這些游戲使用的3D引擎都可以用于這項技術(shù),因為它們基本上都能處理復(fù)雜的3D環(huán)境,而這正是虛擬現(xiàn)實系統(tǒng)的核心?!?/p>

????不過,CNN打算在這方面另辟蹊徑。這家新聞機構(gòu)本周早些時候表示,它將通過三星的Gear VR頭盔直播民主黨總統(tǒng)候選人辯論會。CNN稱,這些“虛擬”觀眾會像“坐在第一排”一樣,他們無需電視就能觀看候選人的辯論,而且還會看到電視觀眾看不到的東西。

????CNN的計劃并非虛擬現(xiàn)實技術(shù)在非游戲領(lǐng)域的首次嘗試——2015年NBA全明星賽就提供了虛擬現(xiàn)實觀看模式。盡管如此,此事仍值得關(guān)注,因為它體現(xiàn)了這項技術(shù)在游戲以外的機會。

????布勞指出:“我們發(fā)現(xiàn)一些好萊塢公司開始對虛擬現(xiàn)實感興趣,它們把后者視為一種新型消費者體驗。交互電影、360度全景直播以及共享式娛樂體驗都會成為絕對有趣的媒體和娛樂形式,它們能讓消費者感同身受,獲得更為逼真的體驗?!?/p>

????投行及資產(chǎn)管理公司Piper Jaffray分析師吉恩·芒斯特對《財富》雜志表示,迪士尼、獅門影業(yè)、盧卡斯影業(yè)等“主要娛樂公司”都在考慮投身于虛擬現(xiàn)實領(lǐng)域。和布勞一樣,芒斯特認為這項技術(shù)在游戲以外有著光明的前景。

????他說:“眼下的實際應(yīng)用包括在飛機上使用Gear VR頭盔,或者買不起大屏幕電視的大學生借助這項技術(shù)來觀看Netflix上的影視劇。年輕的消費者總是在追逐最新的技術(shù),所以體育直播等獨一無二的體驗以及看電影般的感覺將有助于提升價值?!?/p>

????不過,消費者最終能否接觸到大量娛樂內(nèi)容還有待觀察。據(jù)布勞介紹,一些娛樂公司雖然對虛擬現(xiàn)實感興趣,但在市場上出現(xiàn)足夠多的用戶之前,它們不太可能為這項技術(shù)投入大量資源。

????布勞說:“和其他所有行當一樣,這個行業(yè)需要用戶和消費者。虛擬現(xiàn)實在娛樂領(lǐng)域大展拳腳有幾個前提。首先,用戶需要獲得并大規(guī)模使用虛擬現(xiàn)實設(shè)備。當圍繞這些產(chǎn)品制造出轟動效應(yīng)后,媒體和娛樂產(chǎn)業(yè)就能蓬勃發(fā)展起來。要做到這一點,頭戴式顯示設(shè)備就得在這些公司的目標市場流行起來。”

????正因為要制造轟動效應(yīng),游戲才變得如此重要。為建立忠實的粉絲群體,幾乎所有大型虛擬現(xiàn)實公司都把游戲功能作為自身產(chǎn)品的賣點。正如金融服務(wù)和投資公司W(wǎng)edbush Securities分析師邁克爾·帕赫特所說:“游戲驗證了虛擬現(xiàn)實這個概念”。如果這種做法可行,而且吸引了足夠多的消費者,好萊塢公司就有望跟進。

????然而,還不清楚到底需要賣出多少臺設(shè)備,才能讓娛樂行業(yè)全力支持虛擬現(xiàn)實技術(shù)。另一位Piper Jaffray分析師特拉維斯·耶克爾今年7月份向《財富》雜志透露,2016年全球虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔銷量將達到1220萬個,其中360萬個為Oculus的Rift VR頭盔,三星Gear VR頭盔的銷量將達到500萬個。

????雖然這些數(shù)字可能看似很高,但好萊塢不大可能為之所動。芒斯特認為虛擬現(xiàn)實市場將緩慢前行,“隨著它的發(fā)展以及用戶數(shù)量開始上升,這個市場將變得越發(fā)社會化”。

????換句話說,這個市場的成熟,虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔銷量的增長,以及娛樂行業(yè)致力于提供全面的虛擬現(xiàn)實體驗都需要時間。分析師帕赫特預(yù)計,如果對虛擬現(xiàn)實感興趣,娛樂公司“至少還要五年時間”才會共同推動這項技術(shù)的大規(guī)模資本化。

????不過,虛擬現(xiàn)實顯然正得到重視。美國消費電子協(xié)會最近公布,在2016年CES國際消費電子展上,將有40多家廠商展示用于虛擬現(xiàn)實頭盔的多媒體內(nèi)容,比2015年CES增加了77%。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????校對:詹妮

????There’s no doubt that gaming companies see value in virtual reality (VR), but other industries will also soon take advantage of the mind-bending technology.

????Virtual reality isn’t new. Devices like Nintendo’s ill-fated Virtual Boy—along with several others—have dotted store shelves for decades, but for one reason or another the products have failed. Despite early troubles, the VR industry has grown in popularity over the last couple of years with help from Facebook’s FB 0.00% Oculus, a company that plans to launch its Rift VR headset in 2016. Several other companies are vying for the space, including HTC , with its Vive VR, as well as Sony SNE -1.27% with its PlayStation VR. Samsung’s Gear VR is also in the mix.

????Since Oculus put a spotlight back on VR, the focus has mainly been on gaming. Video games seem to be an ideal medium for a technology that requires users to place a device on their heads and “l(fā)ive” inside a 3D virtual world. Users can swing around, see what’s happening around the game, and experience environments like never before.

????“Games are a great first target for VR due to the fact that games, especially games on PC and console, are inherently 3D,” Brian Blau, research director for personal technologies at research firm Gartner told Fortune in an interview. “VR requires a sophisticated 3D engine to drive the visuals, and its those game engines that are the ones that will be used in VR as they are, to a large degree, capable of processing the complex 3D environments that are at the heart of a VR system.”

????CNN, however, is aiming to flip conventional wisdom on its head. The news outlet announced earlier this week that it intends to stream the U.S. Democratic Presidential debate live to Samsung’s Gear VR. Users will have a “front-row seat,” the outlet announced, adding that they will be able to watch the debate away from live television and see things off-screen that TV viewers otherwise wouldn’t experience.

????While the announcement wasn’t the first non-gaming play for virtual reality—the NBA offered a VR experience during its 2015 All-Star Game—it was notable for showcasing how virtual reality opportunities may go beyond gaming.

????“We have seen a component of Hollywood become interested in VR as a new type of customer experience,” Blau says. “Interactive movies, live events in 360 and shared entertainment experiences will all be really interesting new types of media and entertainment delivered as an immersive and more personal experience.”

????Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster told Fortune that several “major entertainment companies” are considering a jump to VR, including Disney DIS 1.18% , Lionsgate LGF 0.98% , and Lucasfilm. Like Blau, Munster sees a bright future for VR beyond gaming.

????“A practical use case right now would be using the Gear VR on an airplane or if a college student wants to watch their Netflix NFLX 6.51% but can’t afford a big screen TV,” he says. “Unique experiences such as live sports and cinematic experiences will help drive value because young consumers are always looking for the latest tech.”

????But whether consumers will ultimately be able to get their hands on large quantities of entertainment content remains to be seen. According to Blau, while some entertainment companies are interested in VR, they’re unlikely to double down on the technology until enough users join the market.

????“The industry needs users and customers, just like any business,” Blau says. “For VR to do well in entertainment, several pieces need to fall into place; first is that devices need to get into users hands and on their heads in mass numbers. Media and entertainment thrives when they create buzz around their properties, and that can’t happen until head-mounted displays start to gain penetration in their desired markets.”

????Developing that buzz is why gaming is so important. Nearly every major VR company is promoting the gaming capabilities of their devices in an attempt to attract a loyal fanbase. As Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter says, “gaming is proof-of-concept” for VR. If that works and enough consumers jump on the platform, it’s possible Hollywood will fall in line.

????What is unclear, however, is how many units need to be sold until the entertainment industry fully backs the technology. In July, Jaffray, Travis Jakel, another analyst at Piper, told Fortune that in 2016, 12.2 million VR headsets will be sold worldwide. Facebook’s Oculus Rift will account for 3.6 million of those headsets, while Samsung Gear VR will nab 5 million unit sales.

????While those figures may seem lofty, it’s unlikely to prompt movement from Hollywood. Munster believes the VR market will slowly evolve and become “more social as it develops and more people start to use it.”

????It will take time, in other words, for the market to mature, more headsets to be sold, and the entertainment industry to jump at providing full VR experiences. Pachter argues that if entertainment companies are interested in VR, we’re “at least five years” from a major, concerted effort on their part to capitalize on the technology.

????Still, it’s clear that VR is attracting serious attention: the Consumer Electronics Association recently announced that over 40 exhibitors showing off multimedia content for virtual reality headsets will be on-hand at CES 2016—a 77% increase compared to CES 2015.

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