????過去幾周，中國的各種“經(jīng)濟(jì)病”令全球惴惴不安。但對研究中國問題的專家來說，他們關(guān)注其中某一日趨緊張的問題已有多年，那就是——?jiǎng)趧?dòng)力。自2006年以來，一度是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長助力之一的低勞動(dòng)力成本已經(jīng)翻了超過兩番，勞資爭議事件也日益增多。

????這導(dǎo)致一些制造商開始向勞動(dòng)力成本依然保持在較低水平的國家遷移，比如孟加拉國和老撾等，其遵循的邏輯和他們當(dāng)初進(jìn)入中國時(shí)別無二致。更令人震驚的是，波士頓咨詢公司發(fā)現(xiàn)，在2014年，至少有超過50%的制造業(yè)高管在考慮將業(yè)務(wù)搬回美國。據(jù)波士頓咨詢推算，美國一些低薪地區(qū)與中國的勞動(dòng)力成本差距在10-15%以內(nèi)，而且可以更好地服務(wù)于北美市場。

????外界普遍認(rèn)為，最近的人民幣貶值目的之一，便是降低跨國制造商的成本。

????供應(yīng)鏈服務(wù)商百沃公司副總裁米奇?諾斯?里扎表示：“中國在努力確保不會(huì)出現(xiàn)大批制造商外遷。但這種情形只能被控制住一段時(shí)間。”

????一些低成本、低資本的制造商，比如服裝生產(chǎn)商，已經(jīng)開始陸續(xù)離開中國遷向東南亞，甚至有越來越多的生產(chǎn)商遷移到了中東和非洲。勞動(dòng)力在這些公司成本中所占的比重更大，對它們來說，通過保持高庫存來抵消生產(chǎn)中斷帶來的損害也更為劃算。而且搬遷本身可以很快完成。

????田納西大學(xué)全球供應(yīng)鏈研究院常務(wù)董事謝伊?斯科特解釋稱：“他們帶上一些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)備，裝到集裝箱里運(yùn)走，然后重新安裝起來就可以了。”

????但高科技制造商需要考慮的問題卻更加復(fù)雜。觀察家們表示，對于高科技制造商來說，未來十年的重點(diǎn)不應(yīng)該是追逐廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力，而是將外包多元化，并致力于服務(wù)區(qū)域市場。

????斯科特表示：“回溯15或20年前，很多公司曾利用廉價(jià)的勞動(dòng)力成本，展開一些備受爭議的過于簡化的業(yè)務(wù)。而現(xiàn)在，我認(rèn)為許多公司從以往的經(jīng)驗(yàn)中發(fā)現(xiàn)：有許多其他因素是更難以量化的。”

????其中之一便是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。隸屬于SAP旗下的Ariba供應(yīng)商網(wǎng)絡(luò)副總裁桑達(dá)爾?卡納克表示，首批進(jìn)入中國開店的跨國公司，曾花了多年時(shí)間來應(yīng)對劣質(zhì)的公路和電網(wǎng)問題。

????卡納克表示：“中國已經(jīng)解決了很多諸如此類的挑戰(zhàn)，但代價(jià)是成本高了?！?/p>

????卡納克舉例稱，供電變得更可靠了，但也更加昂貴，過去六年，中國的電費(fèi)上漲了15%。對于電力需求量較大的高科技制造商來說，這的確很令人頭疼，但相比欠發(fā)達(dá)國家不可靠的電網(wǎng)所帶來的麻煩，這個(gè)問題還可以忍受。

????工資上漲背后，也有一些違反直覺的推動(dòng)因素。首先，這反映出更熟練的工人技能。并且，隨著越來越多的中國人進(jìn)入中產(chǎn)階級，他們也在成為自己生產(chǎn)的商品的消費(fèi)者。2015年初，蘋果iPhone手機(jī)在中國的銷量首次超過美國，這也是蘋果將制造工廠留在中國的原因之一。

????一度，作為一種折中的方法，一些制造商們也曾嘗試進(jìn)入勞動(dòng)成本較低的中國內(nèi)陸地區(qū)，但斯科特認(rèn)為，其中所蘊(yùn)含的更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)使得這種嘗試難以流行開來。這種做法對于高科技制造商來說更是不切實(shí)際，因?yàn)檫\(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將導(dǎo)致庫存成本大幅上漲。

????一家芯片制造廠并不像一家服裝廠那么容易搬遷。只有當(dāng)出于技術(shù)周期變更需要進(jìn)行大規(guī)模的工廠革新時(shí)，搬遷才是有意義的，但技術(shù)周期的持續(xù)時(shí)間可能長達(dá)十年之久。不過，公司在擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)規(guī)模時(shí)，也很有可能會(huì)選擇遷址，這似乎是中國的一處弱勢。

????最近的天津港爆炸事件所暴露的，與其說是中國特有的一些問題，不如說是供應(yīng)鏈距離太遠(yuǎn)的制造業(yè)存在的內(nèi)在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。高科技制造商現(xiàn)在正在考慮的是區(qū)域化運(yùn)營和縮短供應(yīng)鏈——例如，在墨西哥或南美生產(chǎn)供應(yīng)北美市場的商品，而不是一味追逐低成本。

????諾斯?里扎稱：“有些公司將這種作法稱為‘最優(yōu)外包’策略。”

????但光是區(qū)域化運(yùn)營并不能道盡未來制造業(yè)全部的轉(zhuǎn)變趨勢。全球通信基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的不斷改善，包括更靈活的基于云的庫存解決方案，使各家公司更容易找到和整合新的外包供應(yīng)源。這成為促使合同制造興起的一種因素，可幫助公司建立起能夠比以往更快速變更的供應(yīng)鏈體系。

????所有這一切不僅意味著中國高科技制造業(yè)的增長將走到盡頭，也意味著再也不會(huì)出現(xiàn)像中國這樣集中、強(qiáng)大和持續(xù)的區(qū)域制造業(yè)繁榮。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????審校：任文科

????In the past few weeks, the world has been clearly alerted to the many ills of the Chinese economy. But China watchers have been eyeing one worrisome strain for years—labor. The low labor costs that fueled Chinese growth have more than quadrupled since 2006, and labor unrest has also been growing.

????That has led some manufacturers, following the same logic that brought them to China in the first place, to move towards still-lower labor cost countries, like Bangladesh and Laos. More surprising, the Boston Consulting Group found in 2014 that more than 50% of manufacturing executives were at least considering shifting manufacturing back to the U.S., whose low-wage regions BCG projects to move within 10 to 15% of cost parity with China, while allowing for better service of the American market.

????It’s widely believed that the recent devaluation of the yuan was a move to keep costs down for international producers.

????“They’re trying to make sure they don’t have a mass exodus,” says Mickey North Rizza, VP at BravoSolution. “That’s only going to be controlled for so long.”

????Low-cost, low-capital manufacturers, such as apparel producers, have already left China in droves, moving not just to southeast Asia, but increasingly the Middle East and Africa. Labor is a larger portion of their costs, and it’s more affordable for them to maintain high inventories to insulate against disruptions. And the move itself is a snap.

????“They take some basic machinery, they put it in a shipping container, and they set up again,” explains Shay Scott, managing director of the Global Supply Chain Institute at the University of Tennessee.

????Tech manufacturers, though, face a more complex calculation. Observers say that for them, the next ten years may be less about chasing cheap labor, than about diversifying sources and serving regional markets.

????“If you rewind 15 or 20 years, companies were using the low labor cost to make what we have always argued were oversimplified business cases,” says Scott. “I think companies are learning from experience that there are a number of other factors that are a bit harder to quantify.”

????One of those is infrastructure. Sundar Kanak, VP at SAP’s Ariba supplier network, says that the first global companies to set up shop in China spent years dealing with shoddy roads and electrical grids.

????“China has overcome some of those challenges,” says Kanak, “But at the expense of cost.”

????Electricity, for instance, has become both more reliable, and more expensive, ratcheting up 15% annually for the last six years, according to Kanak. That’s a particular headache for power-hungry tech manufacturers—but not as much of a headache as the unreliable grids of less-developed countries.

????Those rising wages, too, have their own counterintuitive pull. For a start, they reflect greater worker skill. And as more Chinese enter the middle class, they become consumers of the devices they’re producing. In early 2015, Apple sold more iPhones in China than in the U.S. for the first time, one more good reason to keep making them in China.

????For a time, manufacturers explored splitting the difference by pushing further into inland China, where labor costs are lower—but the greater risks, Scott says, have kept that experiment from gaining serious traction. It’s a particular nonstarter in tech, where transportation risk greatly increases inventory costs.

????And a chip fabrication plant isn’t as easy to relocate as an apparel factory. Moving makes the most sense when technology cycles demand major plant changes—but those cycles can be ten years long. There are also choices to be made, though, when companies expand production, and that seems to be where China is now most vulnerable.

????The recent Tianjin port disaster says less about problems particular to China, than about the inherently risky nature of manufacturing too far away from the market. Rather than chasing low cost, tech manufacturers are thinking about operating regionally and keeping supply chains shorter—for instance, manufacturing North American goods in Mexico or South America.

????“Some companies call it ‘best sourcing,’” says North Rizza.

????But even regionalization may not be the full extent of future manufacturing shifts. Improving global communication infrastructure, including more flexible cloud-based inventory solutions, are making it easier for companies to find and integrate new sources. That’s one factor contributing to the rise of contract manufacturing, helping companies build supply chains that can change much more rapidly than ever before.

????All of which may mean not only that Chinese high-tech growth is at an end, but that there will be no more regional manufacturing booms as concentrated, powerful and sustained as China’s has been.