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泡沫破裂時(shí),“獨(dú)角獸公司”該怎么做

泡沫破裂時(shí),“獨(dú)角獸公司”該怎么做

Rita Gunther McGrath 2015-08-26
“創(chuàng)業(yè)101”的黃金法則就是:盡可能地降低固定成本,以渡過艱難時(shí)期。

????“創(chuàng)業(yè)101” 在線課程指出,聰明的創(chuàng)業(yè)者會(huì)儲(chǔ)備現(xiàn)金,特別是當(dāng)他們正打算開辟一個(gè)全新市場(chǎng)時(shí)。明智的投資者將獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)堅(jiān)持這一原則的創(chuàng)業(yè)者,那些上市公司的投資者就更是會(huì)關(guān)注資金去向。那么,為什么會(huì)有這么多錢涌向所謂的“獨(dú)角獸公司”呢?這樣的企業(yè)有90多家,其價(jià)值均在10億美元以上,有的超過100億美元,甚至500億美元。

????以從事辦公室共享業(yè)務(wù)的初創(chuàng)公司W(wǎng)eWork為例,它剛剛宣布了新一輪融資計(jì)劃,完成后其估值將超過100億美元。和同樣從事辦公室租賃的波士頓地產(chǎn)公司相比,WeWork的市值已超過后者一半以上。波士頓地產(chǎn)擁有的房產(chǎn)面積超過4500萬平方英尺(418.5萬平方米),而且以高端寫字樓為主。WeWork則正好相反,它出租的辦公室面積為350萬平方英尺(32.55萬平方米),散布于美國各地,還有幾處在國外。顯然,投資者的預(yù)期是WeWork將改變?nèi)藗兊墓ぷ鞣绞?,進(jìn)而可能讓他們的生活方式發(fā)生變化,甚至還有可能改變公司的組織形式。

????這樣的預(yù)期也許不會(huì)成真。

????預(yù)示市場(chǎng)泡沫可能萎縮(甚至直接破裂)的早期危險(xiǎn)信號(hào)有很多。“創(chuàng)業(yè)101”法則普遍遭到無視就是其中之一。一些獲得風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的公司燒錢速度非???。目前情況還好,前提是投資者繼續(xù)撒錢。但這種情況可能給WeWork這樣的公司留下軟肋,原因是它放棄了成本固定的長期租賃業(yè)務(wù),只把辦公場(chǎng)地短期租給小公司。如果此類需求枯竭,WeWork就會(huì)陷入困境。而“創(chuàng)業(yè)101”的黃金法則就是盡量降低固定成本,以便應(yīng)對(duì)這種局面。

????那么問題來了,如果那些基本上不會(huì)成為客戶的投資者停止“輸血”,這些公司就得開始從真正的用戶那里獲取相當(dāng)大的一部分資金。按照以往的經(jīng)驗(yàn),此時(shí)它們就會(huì)“原形畢露”,而且這也將成為一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn),此后這些公司可能會(huì)相當(dāng)快地陷入現(xiàn)金斷流的境地。這就說明,它們的經(jīng)營模式依賴于大量資金的持續(xù)投入,就像許多所謂的獨(dú)角獸公司一樣。在投資者變得小心謹(jǐn)慎后,這些公司要么“忽悠”前者繼續(xù)投資,要么就會(huì)遇上大麻煩。

????另一個(gè)早期警示是一些投資者開始質(zhì)疑初創(chuàng)公司的會(huì)計(jì)方法。就像對(duì)新業(yè)務(wù)模式的直觀印象和宣傳推廣支撐起了上一次科技泡沫,最終,這些公司也得使用人們信得過的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。投資者已將某些行業(yè)整個(gè)列為禁區(qū),比如約會(huì)網(wǎng)站。

????觀察人士已經(jīng)注意到,股市無法一下子消化所有的“獨(dú)角獸公司”。此外,硅谷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本家馬克?安德森發(fā)現(xiàn),如今的初創(chuàng)公司創(chuàng)始人從未在資金緊張的情況下進(jìn)行過決策。他形象地說,這些創(chuàng)始人有可能“蒸發(fā)”。

????那么,了解上述情況有什么用呢?預(yù)測(cè)贏家和輸家的難度非常大,但推斷其后果就容易得多。

????對(duì)準(zhǔn)備充分的老牌企業(yè)來說,初創(chuàng)公司崩盤帶來的機(jī)會(huì)可能令人咋舌。大批非常出色的人才將會(huì)失業(yè),或者他們所在的公司可能出現(xiàn)虧損并陷入停滯。這些人對(duì)于到大型傳統(tǒng)企業(yè)工作的興趣將陡然上升。此前處于瘋狂水平的薪資和股權(quán)報(bào)酬要求將更貼近歷史正常水平。辦公場(chǎng)地租金將下跌(嗯哼,WeWork會(huì)怎樣可想而知)。尚未大量應(yīng)用的優(yōu)良技術(shù)將變得唾手可得,獲取成本也會(huì)大幅下降。

????在這些初步影響的基礎(chǔ)上再略微延伸一下大家就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),向科技公司提供服務(wù)的行業(yè)將出現(xiàn)連鎖反應(yīng),這種情況將再次創(chuàng)造以可接受成本進(jìn)行收購或?qū)嵤┬袠I(yè)整合的機(jī)會(huì)。不過,只要有精明的頭腦和充分的準(zhǔn)備,從中獲得好處的就不僅僅是大公司。確實(shí)用心學(xué)習(xí)過“創(chuàng)業(yè)101”的創(chuàng)業(yè)者也可能成為受益者。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????校對(duì):詹妮

????In entrepreneurship 101, the golden rule is to keep your fixed costs as low as possible to ride out the lean times.

????Entrepreneurship 101 suggests that smart startups conserve their cash, particularly if they are the kinds of startups that are trying to create entirely new markets. Savvy investors are supposed to reward the founders who adhere to this principle, and investors in public companies are even more likely to ask questions about where their money is going. Why then, is so much money sloshing around the so-called unicorns, the 90-plus firms worth more than a billion … more than 10 billion … more than 50 billion …?

????For perspective, consider that office-sharing startup WeWork just announced a financing round that would put the company’s market capitalization atover $10 billion, more than half the market capitalization of Boston Properties, Inc., an office leasing competitor. Boston Properties owns more than 45 million square feet of real estate, with a focus on high-priced areas for offices. WeWork, in contrast, leases 3.5 million square feet scattered around the U.S. and in a few global locations. Clearly, investors’ expectations are that the small firm is going to revolutionize the way people work, then later maybe the way they live, and then perhaps even the form corporations will take.

????Or maybe not.

????The early warning signs of a bubble potentially deflating (if not popping outright) are many. One is the widespread disregard of Entrepreneurship 101—burn rates at some of these venture-backed companies are very high. So far, so good, if investors keep pouring in cash. But it can leave a company like WeWork vulnerable, because it takes out long leases at fixed cost and rents out spaces to small players in the short term. If demand dries up for those spaces, WeWork is still stuck with the leases. The golden rule in entrepreneurship 101 is to keep your fixed costs as low as possible to ride through any such scenario.

????Here’s the problem: Once the cash stops coming in from people who are basically not customers, money has to start coming in at a pretty good clip from people the companies actually sell things to. If history repeats itself, the arrival of an “emperor has no clothes” moment is a tipping point which can shut off the fund flows pretty quickly. That in turn means that companies whose business models depend on continued, significant investment—like many of the so-called unicorns—will either be able to sweet talk now-wary investors into continuing the party, or they are going to run into serious trouble.

????A few other early warnings—some investors are starting to question startups’ accounting practices. Like the eyeball-counting and talk of new business models that fueled the last tech bubble, eventually these companies have to agree on numbers people can trust. Some entire sectors are being declared off-limits by investors, such as dating websites.

????Observers are already noting that the public markets can’t absorb all those unicorns at once. Moreover, as Marc Andreessen has observed, today’s startup founders have never made decisions in a tight-money environment. They are likely, as he picturesquely observed, to be “vaporized.”

????All right, knowing all this, what does it mean? What is very hard to predict is who the winners and losers will be. What is much less hard to predict is the aftermath.

????For the established organization that is well prepared, the opportunity presented by a crash is potentially staggering. An awful lot of very talented people, facing an actual loss of their jobs or the prospects of working for a money-losing venture that isn’t getting traction, are going to suddenly get a lot more interested in talking to the recruiters from Big Old Company X. Crazy salary levels and demands for equity will come back to more historical norms. Office space prices will drop (ahem, WeWork?). Good technologies that have not yet been scaled will be far more readily available, and at far better prices.

????Moving a little further away from the immediate impacts, you’ll see the ripple effects in the services provided to the tech companies, which can again create affordable opportunities to make acquisitions or consolidate a sector. But not only big companies can benefit if they are smart and well-prepared. The entrepreneur who did heed the lessons of Entrepreneurship 101 is also likely to be among the beneficiaries.

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