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不顧一切最早買蘋果新產(chǎn)品的成本有多高

不顧一切最早買蘋果新產(chǎn)品的成本有多高

Jacob Davidson 2015年04月29日
早下手買入Apple Watch值得嗎?從歷史數(shù)據(jù)來看,2000年開始,蘋果主要消費(fèi)類新品平均在兩年零三個(gè)月以后開始降價(jià),首次降價(jià)幅度平均為48%。而且作為最早下手的那批人,你不光要多花錢,還要承擔(dān)產(chǎn)品不完善的成本。

????看了這兩幅圖后,也許會(huì)有人指出,我得出的平均數(shù)模糊了兩種截然不同的情況,即iPhone和Apple TV的降價(jià)幅度非常大,而iPad和iPod的價(jià)格降幅較小。不過就算降價(jià)幅度最小的iPod,售價(jià)也在不到18個(gè)月里下滑了25%。

????這樣一看整體情況就很清楚了,要成為蘋果新產(chǎn)品的早期用戶,你要多花很多錢。

????“產(chǎn)品不完善”成本

????對(duì)早期用戶來說還有一項(xiàng)重大成本,就是蘋果很快就會(huì)發(fā)布大幅改進(jìn)的新款。

????從某種程度上講,購買任何電子產(chǎn)品都會(huì)出現(xiàn)這樣的情況。今天買的電腦沒有幾個(gè)月以后能買到的好,幾年以后的電腦更是先進(jìn)得多。

????不過,這一點(diǎn)在新產(chǎn)品上表現(xiàn)得格外突出。對(duì)2000年之后問世的蘋果產(chǎn)品來說,首次重大更新后不光伴隨著降價(jià),新版產(chǎn)品的性能也遠(yuǎn)超老款。

????說起來可能難以置信,不過第一代iPhone真沒有App Store、群發(fā)短信和高速上網(wǎng)功能,甚至不能復(fù)制粘貼文本。用戶只能選擇AT&T這一家電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商,而當(dāng)時(shí)其以服務(wù)質(zhì)量不穩(wěn)定著稱。蘋果公司前高層讓-路易?加西在最近出版的新書《成為喬布斯》中回憶道:“iPhone剛問世時(shí)有很多缺陷?!敝钡揭荒旰?G版iPhone發(fā)售時(shí),“才算得上真正的成品”。

????因此有人可能會(huì)擔(dān)心Apple Watch同樣出現(xiàn)缺陷。作為蘋果的最新產(chǎn)品,Apple Watch的GPS功能和數(shù)據(jù)連接完全依靠iPhone,單獨(dú)佩戴時(shí)只比普通手表略有型而已。不難想象,未來的新款A(yù)pple Watch應(yīng)該可以獨(dú)立工作,成為一款真正的革命性產(chǎn)品,而不只是一件(極為先進(jìn)的)飾品。

????對(duì)于糾結(jié)要不要下手的消費(fèi)者來說,問題現(xiàn)在很清楚了:一是你愿意花多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間等Apple Watch變成“真正的成品”。二是,你現(xiàn)在愿意掏多少錢買?(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????審校:夏林

????One might look at the graphic and argue that the average obscures two dramatically different stories: The iPhone and Apple TV experienced very large price cuts, while the iPad and iPod saw more modest reductions. But even the smallest price drop, the iPod’s, was 25% in less than 18 months.

????So there’s a clear lesson in the big picture: Early adopters have paid a significant premium to be among the first to own a new line of Apple devices.

????The Product-Isn’t-Good-Yet Tax

????Then there’s another big cost to early adopters: purchasing something that’s about to get a lot better very soon.

????To a certain extent, this phenomenon is built into every electronics purchase. The computer you buy today won’t be quite as good as the computer you could buy a few months, let alone years, from now.

????But it’s especially true when it comes to brand new product categories. It isn’t just that the price of Apple’s post-2000 innovations fell when the first serious revisions hit the market. It’s that the new and less expensiveversions were much better than the originals.

????It’s hard to believe now, but the original iPhone didn’t ship with an app store, group messaging, high-speed internet, or even the ability to copy and paste text. It was also exclusive to one carrier, AT&T, which at the time was notorious for spotty service. “The iPhone was crippled when it first came out,” recalls Jean-Louis Gassée, a former Apple executive interviewed in the recently released biography, Becoming Steve Jobs. It was only a year later, when the iPhone 3G was released, “that the iPhone was truly finished.”

????One could argue the Apple Watch is similarly crippled. Cupertino’s latest widget completely depends on the iPhone for a GPS and data connection, turning the watch into a slightly souped-up timepiece when worn on its own. It’s not hard to imagine that a future Apple Watch model that could exist indepently, making it a truly revolutionary device instead of an (extremely advanced) accessory.

????The question for prospective early adopters, then, is how long are they willing to wait until the Apple Watch is also “truly finished.” And how much are they willing to pay right now?

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