????本周早些時(shí)候，蘋果（Apple）成為首家市值超過(guò)7000億美元的美國(guó)公司。2014年下半年，蘋果公司的銷售額猛增，iPhone 6成為該公司最成功的產(chǎn)品。蘋果似乎在許多領(lǐng)域正突飛猛進(jìn)：收購(gòu)了耳機(jī)廠商Beats，推出了新的流媒體音樂(lè)服務(wù)，并發(fā)布了萬(wàn)眾期待的智能手表。

????然而，盡管科技巨頭蘋果正一切順風(fēng)順?biāo)行碌嫩E象表明，該公司可能容易受到來(lái)自于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的打擊。據(jù)彭博（Bloomberg）報(bào)道，電動(dòng)汽車制造商特斯拉汽車公司（Tesla Motors ）從蘋果挖走了150名員工。在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈的技術(shù)界里，挖人不足為奇，但一下子被特斯拉挖走了150名雇員，為蘋果敲響了警醒。這并不意味著蘋果這家標(biāo)志性企業(yè)陷入了困境，只是表明蘋果要更加積極創(chuàng)新，才能保持領(lǐng)先地位。

????問(wèn)題在于，市場(chǎng)調(diào)研公司IDC匯總的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，雖然蘋果的最大業(yè)務(wù)板塊——iPhone和iPad系列產(chǎn)品——的市場(chǎng)份額仍然處于較高水平，但在2012年四季度至2014年四季度期間，下滑了約2％，降至20％。

????此外，龐大而誘人的中國(guó)市場(chǎng)，擁有5.5億智能手機(jī)用戶。而電子商務(wù)巨頭阿里巴巴最近進(jìn)入了手機(jī)行業(yè)，這可能對(duì)蘋果手機(jī)在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)熱賣造成威脅。阿里巴巴擁有高額營(yíng)銷資金、廣受歡迎的在線銷售平臺(tái)，以及如何在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)營(yíng)的第一手資料，可能對(duì)蘋果形成極大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力。

????這意味著蘋果不能自滿。盡管新款iPhone因屏幕尺寸更大而大獲成功，但與上一代產(chǎn)品相比，并無(wú)太大不同。除了一些小的改進(jìn)外，iPhone 6幾乎與iPhone 5S一模一樣，而iPhone 5S又與其上一代產(chǎn)品大同小異。這對(duì)蘋果而言是一個(gè)大問(wèn)題。

????為了維持自身地位，蘋果不能簡(jiǎn)單地對(duì)現(xiàn)有熱門產(chǎn)品稍作改進(jìn)或升級(jí)，而是需要?jiǎng)?chuàng)造出真正改變?nèi)藗兩詈凸ぷ鞣绞降男庐a(chǎn)品線。初代iPhone的妙處在于，它不同于當(dāng)時(shí)的其它所有產(chǎn)品，更重要的是，它徹底改變了人們與手機(jī)的關(guān)系。通過(guò)打造簡(jiǎn)潔的界面，并將手機(jī)變成一臺(tái)小型電腦，蘋果公司得以脫穎而出，并重新定義了整個(gè)市場(chǎng)。當(dāng)塵埃落定，蘋果成為當(dāng)之無(wú)愧的市場(chǎng)霸主。

????確實(shí)，蘋果在智能手機(jī)和平板電腦領(lǐng)域的強(qiáng)敵——三星（Samsung）也在丟失市場(chǎng)份額，但這對(duì)蘋果起不到什么安慰作用，因?yàn)楣雀瑁℅oogle）的Android操作系統(tǒng)繼續(xù)主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)，而Windows手機(jī)也即將從蘋果iOS手中攻城掠地。除非蘋果再次開發(fā)出將改變整個(gè)科技界，乃至人類活動(dòng)方式的產(chǎn)品，否則，它可能會(huì)成為又一家江郎才盡的企業(yè)巨頭。

????對(duì)蘋果粉絲而言，所幸的是，有跡象表明該公司已經(jīng)認(rèn)識(shí)到了這一點(diǎn)。

????本周，蘋果首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫(kù)克在高盛集團(tuán)（Goldman Sachs）的科技與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)大會(huì)（Technology & Internet Conference）上發(fā)表演講，談到該公司正在采取若干舉措，將其業(yè)務(wù)范圍拓展到現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品線之外。新產(chǎn)品包括蘋果iOS操作系統(tǒng)在家居、汽車以及個(gè)人健康市場(chǎng)的應(yīng)用；利用智能手表來(lái)管理我們的生活；正在廣泛普及并大大簡(jiǎn)化了消費(fèi)者移動(dòng)支付過(guò)程的蘋果支付（Apple Pay）系統(tǒng)；以及能使蘋果功能在多臺(tái)設(shè)備上實(shí)現(xiàn)無(wú)縫銜接的多設(shè)備交互工具 Continuity。

????其中，最具顛覆性的可能是蘋果智能手表和蘋果支付。曾經(jīng)，智能手表只不過(guò)是電影《至尊神探》（Dick Tracy）中的幻想，如今，該產(chǎn)品是智能手機(jī)技術(shù)的進(jìn)一步微型化，真正做到了將移動(dòng)電話、音樂(lè)、健康和健身跟蹤、移動(dòng)支付、智能設(shè)備控制以及其它諸多功能結(jié)合在一起，在小小的一塊腕表上實(shí)現(xiàn)。通過(guò)蘋果支付，用戶能安全存儲(chǔ)自己所有的信用卡號(hào)碼，而支付時(shí)，只需在讀取器前揮動(dòng)手機(jī)，因而不用再隨身攜帶錢包。雖然這并不是一項(xiàng)新技術(shù)，但蘋果系統(tǒng)的簡(jiǎn)便性，似乎正令其在商家和消費(fèi)者中流行起來(lái)。

????周四，億萬(wàn)富翁投資者卡爾?伊坎在自己網(wǎng)站上發(fā)表公開信，預(yù)測(cè)蘋果公司的市值可能逼近1萬(wàn)億美元。這是否能實(shí)現(xiàn)還不好說(shuō)。蘋果能否經(jīng)受住來(lái)自于市場(chǎng)上眾多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的挑戰(zhàn)，這一點(diǎn)只有靠時(shí)間來(lái)證明。蘋果只要能戒驕戒躁，就會(huì)蓬勃發(fā)展。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者Sanjay Sanghoee是一位商業(yè)評(píng)論員，曾在Lazard Freres和Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein等投行以及對(duì)沖基金Ramius Capital任職。Sanghoee擁有哥倫比亞商學(xué)院的MBA學(xué)位。他未持有蘋果、阿里巴巴、三星、谷歌或微軟的股份。

????譯者：Hunter

????審稿：Sissi

????Earlier this week, Apple became the first U.S. company with a market value above $700 billion. Its sales soared in the second half of 2014, and the iPhone 6 has been its most successful product. With the acquisition of headphone maker Beats, the creation of a new streaming music service, and particularly the highly anticipated release of its smart watch, the company seems to be charging ahead on many fronts.

????Despite all that’s going right, however, new signs indicate that the tech giant could be in a vulnerable spot against competitors. Tesla Motorshttp://fortune.com/company/tsla/, the electric carmaker, has reportedly poached 150 employees from Apple, according to Bloomberg. This is not a surprise in the competitive world of technology, but the scale of Tesla’s talent grab should be a wake-up call for Apple. That doesn’t mean the iconic company is in trouble, just that it needs to innovate aggressively to stay on top.

????The problem is that the market share for Apple’s largest business segment — the iPhone and iPad family — while still high, declined by about 2% between the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2014, ending at 20%, according to data compiled by market intelligence firm IDC.

????In addition, the popularity of the company’s phones in China, a large and attractive market with 550 million smartphone users, could be threatened by the recent entry of e-commerce behemoth Alibaba into this segment. With lots of cash on its balance sheet for marketing, a popular online sales platform, and first-hand knowledge of how to navigate the Chinese market, Alibaba could give Apple a run for its money.

????What this implies is that Apple can’t afford to become complacent. Even though the new iPhone has been wildly successful due to its larger screen size, it’s not dramatically different from its predecessors. Other than minor improvements, the iPhone 6 is almost identical to the iPhone 5S, which in turn is similar to the model before it. That is Apple’s big problem.

????In order to maintain its position, Apple can’t afford to simply tweak or upgrade its existing line of popular products. It needs to create new lines that truly change the way we live and work. The beauty about the original iPhone was that it was unlike anything else at the time and, more importantly, it revolutionized our relationship with mobile phones. By creating a powerfully simple interface and turning the phone into a mini computer, Apple was able to differentiate itself and redefine the market. When the dust settled, it was Apple’s market.

????To be sure, Samsung, a big competitor in the smartphone and tablet space, is also losing market share, but that’s cold comfort as the Google Android operating system continues to dominate the market and Windows phones threaten to take market share from Apple iOS. Unless Apple develops something that will once again change the world of technology, and indeed the way humans function, it could wind up being just another corporate giant whose greatest achievements lie behind it.

????Luckily for Apple fans, there are signs that the company gets this.

????In his address at the Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference this week, Apple CEO Tim Cook hit on several initiatives that his company is undertaking to expand its footprint beyond its tried and tested product lines. This includes the application of its iOS to the home, car, and personal health markets, the utility of the smart watch in managing our lives, the Apple Pay system that is becoming ubiquitous and simplifies the mobile payment process for consumers considerably, as well as Continuity – which enables Apple features to work seamlessly on multiple devices.

????Of these, possibly the most disruptive are the smart watch and Apple Pay. The watch, once only a Dick Tracy fantasy, is a move towards greater miniaturization of smartphone technology and the ability to combine mobile calls, music, health and fitness tracking, mobile payments, smart device controls, and many other things literally on your wrist. Apple Pay enables you to store all your credit cards numbers securely and simply pay by waving your phone in front of a reader, thereby eliminating the need to carry wallets. While the technology isn’t new, the simplicity of Apple’s system seems to be catching on with vendors and consumers.

????On Thursday, billionaire investor Carl Ichan predicted that Apple’s market value could hit close to $1 trillion, according to a letter posted on his website. That may or may not happen, and only time will tell whether Apple can withstand competition in a crowded market. As long as the company avoids getting complacent, it will prosper.

????Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as hedge fund Ramius Capital. Sanghoee holds an MBA from Columbia Business School. He does not hold any shares of Apple, Alibaba, Samsung, Google, or Microsoft.