????對于視頻游戲出版商來說，中國已經(jīng)發(fā)展成為一個規(guī)模巨大的市場。在中國政府解除長達14年的游戲機禁令（據(jù)說主要是擔(dān)心暴力游戲?qū)η嗌倌暝斐蓚Γ┲螅袊婕矣挚梢酝嬗螒驒C了。市場研究公司Niko Partners表示，這個市場2013年的市值是120億美元，2018年將翻一番，達到234億美元。

????這項禁令將游戲巨頭任天堂、索尼和微軟長期隔離在中國市場之外。禁令解除后，這些公司開始長驅(qū)直入。今年1月，索尼電腦娛樂公司（請不要和前索尼在線娛樂公司混淆）攜手70家致力于為中國玩家開發(fā)游戲的出版商，推出了PlayStation 4游戲機和手持PS Vita。專門為中國市場推出的游戲包括《武術(shù)之王》（蘇州蝸牛公司）、《南瓜先生大冒險》（上海友聚公司）和《啪啪英雄》（上?；{公司），這些都是中國本土開發(fā)商的力作。

????Niko Partners公司表示，中國市場的迅猛增長意味著游戲出版商的下一個重大機遇是東南亞其他國家。今年，印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、泰國和越南的網(wǎng)絡(luò)游戲銷售額有望達到7.844億美元，手游銷售額預(yù)計將達到2.31億美元——和潛力巨大，不斷遞增的中國市場相比，這個數(shù)字的確微不足道。

????Niko Partners公司主理合伙人麗薩?漢森表示：“人們常常將東南亞游戲市場與中國市場放在一起作比較，可以看出，前者其實比后者落后好幾年。東南亞玩家很喜歡在線戰(zhàn)斗類游戲、射擊類游戲和手游，中國玩家也一樣。但是，年齡稍長的中國玩家還喜歡能產(chǎn)生更多收入的大型多人在線角色扮演游戲（MMORPG），這是很多東南亞玩家不太接觸的領(lǐng)域。所以，開發(fā)商的挑戰(zhàn)在于如何推動?xùn)|南亞玩家在他們熱衷的游戲上多花錢?！?/p>

????對于游戲出版商來說，印度尼西亞、泰國和越南已經(jīng)成為三個最重要的收入來源國，但推動或阻礙增長的因素卻各有不同。Niko公司預(yù)計，未來五年間，印度尼西亞的游戲收入增速最快，越南在線玩家的人數(shù)增長最快。如今東南亞的手游玩家（1.19億人）比PC端在線玩家（9700萬人）更多，但有相當(dāng)部分是重疊的。漢森稱：“只要收費合理，美國手游和PC端游戲都能在東南亞地區(qū)大獲成功。這一地區(qū)很多人都能說英語，除越南外，東南亞這些國家的內(nèi)容監(jiān)管環(huán)境還是相當(dāng)可控的?！?/p>

????漢森稱，盡管中國手游收入增幅開始放緩，東南亞地區(qū)的手游市場卻在過去兩年急速增長。不過她表示，中國市場的年均增幅仍很驚人。未來五年間中國手游銷售預(yù)計每年增長37%，東南亞地區(qū)的手游銷售同期增幅略低，每年約為34%。但就新手游玩家人數(shù)而言，增速更快的卻是東南亞地區(qū)：從目前到2018年，東南亞新手游玩家人數(shù)每年將增長25%，而中國的增速則為22%。

????東南亞國家也沒有中國那么多條條框框。開發(fā)商可以更容易通過蘋果應(yīng)用商店或谷歌市場接觸東南亞玩家。而中國玩家根本無法進入谷歌市場，國內(nèi)的安卓游戲市場超過500個（盡管絕大多數(shù)收入都集中在20家手中）。漢森稱：“在韓國和中國，微信和KakaoTalk等手機聊天應(yīng)用為手游推廣提供了一個絕佳的新渠道。在東南亞地區(qū)，這些工具才剛剛對手游的推廣產(chǎn)生影響，我們認為這方面的增長空間還很大。”

????從規(guī)?？矗袊诰€PC玩家已超過2.4億，大約相當(dāng)于美國總?cè)丝诘?8%。東南亞在線PC玩家有9700萬人。隨著住宅寬帶的普及，這兩個市場都正在遠離一度風(fēng)靡的網(wǎng)吧游戲，轉(zhuǎn)向家庭游戲。

????唯一的例外是什么？那就是“多人聯(lián)機在線競技游戲”（MOBA），以及《英雄聯(lián)盟》或《魔獸爭霸2》這類競技性游戲。漢森稱：“正如韓國、臺灣和中國曾經(jīng)歷的那樣，競技性游戲現(xiàn)在也是東南亞市場增長的驅(qū)動因素?，F(xiàn)在每年都會舉辦很多錦標賽，普通玩家對職業(yè)玩家崇拜得五體投地。在這些國家，沒有‘好萊塢’來打造影視巨星，于是職業(yè)玩家就有更多機會成為大眾英雄。隨后，那些對他們頂禮膜拜的年輕玩家，也會努力增長技藝，力爭成為像他們那樣的人物。”

????但只有說服東南亞玩家打開錢包，這幕大戲才會開場。漢森稱：“這個市場的消費并不高，所以開發(fā)者的挑戰(zhàn)是如何才能讓這些玩家每個月為自己鐘愛的游戲多花點錢?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠

????審校：任文科

????China has grown into an enormous market for video game publishers. A market worth about $12 billion in 2013 will double to $23.4 billion by 2018, according to Niko Partners, as Chinese gamers are formally reintroduced to console games after a 14-year ban by the government. (Why? Concerns about the harmful effects of violent games on youth. Paging: Tipper Gore.)

????The lengthy ban kept gaming giants Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft at bay. Now that it’s been lifted, they’re diving in. Sony Computer Entertainment (not to be confused with the former Sony Online Entertainment) launched its PlayStation 4 console and hand-held PS Vita in January with 70 publishers committed to working on games for China. Titles exclusive to the country include King of Wushu (Suzhou Snail), Mr. Pumpkin Adventure (Shanghai Youju) and One Tap Hero (Shanghai Kena). All were created by Chinese game developers.

????The momentum in China means the next big opportunity for game publishers is the rest of Southeast Asia, according to Niko Partners. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam are expected to generate $784.4 million this year in online game sales and $231 million in mobile game sales—a paltry sum compared to China’s potential, but incremental growth fueled by that country.

????“The Southeast Asian games market is often compared to that of China, and we can see that it is following behind China by a few years,” says Lisa Hanson, managing partner of Niko Partners. “Gamers in Southeast Asia embrace massively online battle arena games, shooters, and mobile games just as they do in China. However, older Chinese gamers still embrace higher revenue generating MMORPGs [massively multiplayer online role-playing games], a segment that many Southeast Asian gamers shy away from. Therefore, the challenge to developers is to compel an increase in the level of spending on the type of games for which Southeast Asians have shown enthusiasm.”

????Within the region, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam have become the three most important countries for games revenue, yet each has its own drivers and inhibitors for growth. Niko forecasts that, over the next five years, Indonesia will see the fastest growth in revenue and Vietnam will see the fastest growth in the number of online gamers. Today, there are more mobile gamers (at 119 million) than PC online gamers (97 million) in Southeast Asia, with considerable overlap.

????“U.S. mobile and PC games have a good chance of success in Southeast Asia, as long as the game economics are affordable,” Hanson says. “Many people speak English, and with the exception of Vietnam, the content regulatory landscape in the countries of Southeast Asia is quite manageable.”

????Mobile gaming has grown sharply over the past two years in the region, Hanson says, as revenue growth in China for mobile gaming has begun to slow. Still, the annual increase in China is impressive, she says. Mobile game sales in China are expected to grow 37% each year for the next five years; mobile game sales in Southeast Asia are expected to grow slightly slower during the same period, at 34% each year. Measure by the number of new mobile gamers and the lead swaps: Southeast Asia will see 25% growth each year through 2018, compared to China’s 22%.

????Southeast Asia also lacks some hurdles present in China. Developers can access Southeast Asian gamers more easily through Apple’s App Store or Google’s Play marketplace. In China, Google Play is nonexistent and there are more than 500 app markets for Android games (though the majority of revenue is consolidated among 20). “In Korea and China, mobile chat apps such as WeChat and KakaoTalk have provided a great new channel for distribution of mobile games with a social twist,” Hanson says. “In Southeast Asia these tools have just begun to make an impact on mobile games distribution, and we think there is room for growth as a result of that.”

????For a sense of scale, China has more than 24 million online PC gamers—about 78% of the total population of the United States. Southeast Asia has 97 million online PC gamers. Both markets are moving away from gaming in Internet cafés, which is popular, and toward gaming at home as residential broadband connectivity spreads.

????The one exception? Multiplayer online battle arena games, or MOBAs, and other competitive games such as League of Legends or Dota 2. “Competitive gaming is a growth driver in Southeast Asia, as it has been in Korea, Taiwan and China,” Hanson said. “There are many tournaments every year, and everyday gamers are fascinated with the professional gamers. In the absence of a ‘Hollywood’ to build movie and TV star personas, professional gamers are given more opportunity to become cult heroes in these countries, which then leads the younger gamers to idolize them and want to play to become like them.”

????But it all starts by convincing Southeast Asian gamers to open their wallets as they never have before. “It’s not a very high-spending market,” Hanson says, “so the challenge to developers is to get the gamers to spend more per month on the games that they embrace.”