????我有一位朋友是一只大型基金的經(jīng)理人，讓我們姑且稱他為奧斯卡。最近，奧斯卡給我講述了上市當(dāng)天股價(jià)大幅上漲會(huì)是多么的讓人激動(dòng)。幾年前，在從洛杉磯飛往紐約的飛機(jī)上，奧斯卡和一家加州公司的CFO隔著通道相鄰而坐，后者的公司剛剛首發(fā)上市。這位CFO洋洋得意地說(shuō)：“這真是妙極了！”隨著一杯又一杯的金湯力雞尾酒下肚，他的聲音越來(lái)越大：“上市頭一天我們的股票就漲了30%！那可是數(shù)千萬(wàn)美元！”下飛機(jī)時(shí)，奧斯卡對(duì)這位已經(jīng)步履蹣跚的CFO說(shuō)：“如果你們把這幾千萬(wàn)留為己用而不是給了別人，你們公司的價(jià)值不就會(huì)高很多嗎？”聽了這句話，后者突然陷入沉思，就好像他從未聽到過(guò)這樣的說(shuō)法——不過(guò)，估計(jì)過(guò)不了多久他就會(huì)繼續(xù)興高采烈地痛飲一番。

????現(xiàn)在，這個(gè)上市首日股價(jià)飆升的迷人咒語(yǔ)似乎要施加在阿里巴巴身上了——這家公司很快就會(huì)以BABA為代碼在紐約上市。首發(fā)路演現(xiàn)已全面展開，而且據(jù)報(bào)道，阿里巴巴備受機(jī)構(gòu)投資者追捧。媒體報(bào)道稱，寄望一夜暴富的大型基金經(jīng)理人的申購(gòu)數(shù)量已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)阿里巴巴的發(fā)行規(guī)模，申購(gòu)價(jià)格介于每股60-66美元。阿里巴巴將在9月18日定價(jià)，而第二天，這只備受期待的股票就會(huì)登上紐約證交所的舞臺(tái)。

????阿里巴巴的股票供不應(yīng)求，而且需求仍在增長(zhǎng)——這種局面看來(lái)很可能像往常一樣產(chǎn)生一種效果，那就是上市第一天股價(jià)大漲。這樣的行情是華爾街的勝利時(shí)刻之一。在英語(yǔ)里，用“Pop”這個(gè)詞來(lái)形容股價(jià)上漲會(huì)讓人聯(lián)想到一瓶瓶香檳開啟時(shí)的砰砰聲——這是市場(chǎng)繁榮的跡象。如果你相信華爾街的說(shuō)法，也可以認(rèn)為它就是IPO大獲成功的標(biāo)志。

????但實(shí)際上，首日暴漲說(shuō)明承銷商定的發(fā)行價(jià)過(guò)低，遠(yuǎn)低于機(jī)構(gòu)投資者愿意接受的價(jià)格。這種情況下，主要的受益者是名號(hào)最響的華爾街投行以及向它們支付傭金的客戶；受損失的則是上市公司，因?yàn)槿绻词袌?chǎng)價(jià)格首發(fā)，它籌集到的資金就會(huì)多得多。引人注意的是，如此之多的好公司都主動(dòng)把數(shù)以十億計(jì)的美元作為“小費(fèi)留在了餐桌上”。而且，如此之多的本該經(jīng)驗(yàn)老道的企業(yè)家都被這種現(xiàn)象蒙蔽了雙眼，這真是不可思議。特別要說(shuō)的是，華爾街在解釋這一切時(shí)所用的依據(jù)簡(jiǎn)直站不住腳——那些穿著條紋西裝的投行人士說(shuō)，首發(fā)當(dāng)天股價(jià)飆升會(huì)讓剛剛上市的公司獲得大量“人氣”，從而吸引一批忠實(shí)的投資者。

????而實(shí)際上，這只會(huì)在首發(fā)當(dāng)晚把一批投行人士吸引到Peter Luger牛排餐廳慶祝一番。

????新上市的成功公司并不全都是在首發(fā)當(dāng)天大幅上漲。Facebook上市之初股價(jià)下跌的情況眾所周知，這表明該公司在2012年IPO時(shí)籌集的資金超過(guò)了它本身的價(jià)值。當(dāng)然，說(shuō)到底阿里巴巴的股價(jià)不一定會(huì)在這一天飆升。但聽了這可能是科技行業(yè)有史以來(lái)最大規(guī)模首發(fā)的宣傳之后，誰(shuí)都能感覺到這一定是華爾街人士希望出現(xiàn)這樣的局面。如果真是這樣的話，從阿里巴巴手中溜走的資金，或者說(shuō)華爾街所賺取的利潤(rùn)，將達(dá)到前所未有的水平。

????A friend who’s a major money manager—call him Oscar—recently related a story about just how intoxicating a big-pop IPO can be. On a flight from LA to New York a few years ago, Oscar was seated across the aisle from the CFO of a California company that had just gone public. “It was fantastic!” crowed the executive, his volume rising as he downed one gin and tonic after another. “Our stock jumped 30% the first day! That’s tens of millions of dollars!” As they deplaned, Oscar remarked to the stumbling CFO, “Wouldn’t your company be worth a lot more if you’d put those tens of millions in your treasury, instead of giving that money away?” The CFO suddenly turned reflective, as if he’d never heard of that idea—though it’s unlikely the facts stopped his binge of self-congratulation for long.

????It now appears that BIG POP is working its intoxicating spell on Alibaba—soon to trade under the ticker. The road show for its forthcoming IPO is now in full swing, and its shares are reportedly proving a huge hit with institutional investors. Big fund managers, anticipating an overnight windfall, are reportedly requesting far more shares for their portfolios than Alibaba is selling at a price somewhere between $60 and $66 a share—the exact number will be determined on September 18, on the eve of its eagerly awaited debut.

????What appears to be growing excess demand for Alibaba stock is likely to cause what it always causes: a steep rise in the share price in the first days of trading. That pop is one of Wall Street’s prized events. The term evokes images of exploding champagne corks, a sign of flush times in the markets—and if you believe what Wall Street is selling, the hallmark of a successful IPO.

????In reality, a big first-day pop means that the underwriters have sold the shares too cheaply, at far below the price those institutional buyers were really willing to pay. The major beneficiaries are the famous Wall Street names and their commission-paying clients; the loser is the company that raises far less cash than if its shares had sold at market prices. What’s remarkable is that so many great companies voluntarily leave so many billions “on the table.” And it’s amazing how many supposedly sophisticated entrepreneurs are conned by the prospect. Especially since Wall Street has only the weakest rationale for selling it: Pin-striped bankers promise that those first-day price surges will make for great “publicity” for the newbie companies, and attract a coterie of loyal investors.

????In reality, the only coterie it’s likely to attract is the crowd of celebrating bankers that night at Peter Luger’s.

????Successful newly public companies don’t always start with a pop. Facebook’s shares famously dropped in early trading, meaning it raised more cash than it deserved at its 2012 debut. And it’s not certain that Alibaba’s shares will pop at all, once all is said and done. But to hear the hype surrounding what is likely to be the biggest IPO in tech history, it sure likes like Wall Streeters expect it to. Should that be the case, the amount of money Alibaba could forgo—and the size of the prize for Wall Street—are unprecedented.