????本以為將如風(fēng)暴般席卷全球的移動錢包，在過去幾年中可謂命途多舛。谷歌（Google）、貝寶（Paypal）等巨頭、無線運營商、大型連鎖店，以及Square等前途光明的初創(chuàng)公司，在推廣移動錢包上都步履維艱。根據(jù)研究公司Javelin Strategy的數(shù)據(jù)，在多年的努力后，通過移動錢包完成的交易額在去年僅有31億美元。相對于美國去年零售交易額的大約4.5萬億美元來說，這只是極小的一部分。

????這其中遭遇的挑戰(zhàn)數(shù)不勝數(shù)。由于谷歌無法找到足夠的合作伙伴——尤其是商家和信用卡公司，公司的錢包產(chǎn)品萎靡不振。谷歌還難以克服某些無線運營商設(shè)置的障礙，后者也在推廣自己的錢包類產(chǎn)品。

????而由威瑞森通訊（Verizon）、美國電話電報公司（AT&T）和T-Mobile開發(fā)的錢包服務(wù)也一樣經(jīng)歷著困頓。起初是因為這項服務(wù)一直跳票，隨后又因為那個倒霉的名字：Isis。隨著今年早些時候擁有同樣名字的伊拉克暴力圣戰(zhàn)組織興起，運營商宣布他們準備放棄這個品牌名。就在這周，Isis的首席執(zhí)行官邁克?阿爾伯特宣布這項服務(wù)將更名為Softcard。

????而另一方面，Square在今年5月放棄了其錢包業(yè)務(wù)Wallet，推出了新產(chǎn)品Order，這項應(yīng)用可以讓顧客提前預(yù)定餐館，免去了排隊的煩惱。

????從顧客的角度來看，這些努力都走入了同一個誤區(qū)：并非所有商家都接受這種支付方式，而用手機支付也并沒有比信用卡支付更方便，這讓它顯得可有可無。

????一些分析家相信，擁有強大市場影響力、擁有豐富的設(shè)計消費品經(jīng)驗的蘋果能夠改變這一現(xiàn)狀。尤其是包含NFC技術(shù)的iPhone會促使更多的商家升級他們的銷售終端系統(tǒng)，從而接受iPhone以及越來越多同樣配有NFC技術(shù)的安卓（Android）手機的移動支付。

????Javelin的移動產(chǎn)品研究總監(jiān)瑪麗?莫納漢表示：“智能手機在蘋果加入后才開始高速發(fā)展，平板電腦也是在蘋果加入后才廣泛流行起來。許多人希望蘋果能夠化腐朽為神奇。”

????但最近美國明星的蘋果賬戶被黑事件傳得沸沸揚揚，將會給蘋果造成新的麻煩。

????Creative Strategies的資深蘋果分析師蒂姆?巴加林表示：“如果蘋果要在移動支付領(lǐng)域取得成功，就必須在安全性上獲得比現(xiàn)在多得多的信任。”

????與此同時，移動支付市場的其他領(lǐng)域正在蓬勃發(fā)展。Javelin估計消費者去年在“移動商務(wù)”上花費了超過560億美元。這不僅包括使用手機或平板電腦完成的網(wǎng)上購物，還包括通過應(yīng)用購買服務(wù)，如Uber和Lyft的打車服務(wù)、Postmates和Seamless GrubHub的食物和商品快遞等等。這些通過應(yīng)用實現(xiàn)的消費已經(jīng)很快形成了規(guī)模達數(shù)十億美元的市場。貝寶的Braintree以及近年來最炙手可熱的支付公司Stripe成為了該領(lǐng)域中的領(lǐng)頭羊。

????最后，由銀行以及貝寶和Square等公司提供的個人對個人（p2p）移動支付也在日漸成長，不過該領(lǐng)域的交易總額仍然較小。iPhone的移動錢包是否會支持這類交易，目前尚不得而知。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者：嚴匡正

????Mobile wallets, which were expected to take the world by storm, have languished in the past few years. Giants like Google, PayPal, wireless carriers, and major retail chains, as well as promising startups like Square, have all struggled to make wallets popular. After years of effort, just $3.1 billion in purchases came from mobile wallets last year, according to Javelin Strategy, a research firm. That’s just a tiny fraction of the roughly $4.5 trillion in annual retail payments in the United States.

????The challenges have been myriad. Google’s Wallet has been hamstrung by the company’s inability to get enough partners—most notably merchants and credit card companies—on board. Google also struggled to overcome roadblocks put up by some wireless carriers, who were promoting the own rival wallet.

????That service, which is backed by Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, struggled as well, first because it was plagued by delays, and later, because of its ill-fated name: Isis. After the emergence of the violent jihadist group in Iraq by the same name earlier this year, the carriers announced that they would ditch the brand. Just this week, CEO Mike Abbott announced that the service would be renamed Softcard.

????Square, for its part, pulled its Wallet app in May, replacing it with Order, an app that allows users to order ahead and skip the line at local restaurants.

????From a consumer standpoint, all these efforts suffered from the same pitfalls: acceptance at merchants was spotty and paying by phone was not necessarily more convenient than paying with plastic.

????Some analysts believe that Apple, with its market clout and experience designing consumer products, could change the dynamics. In particular, the inclusion of NFC technology in the iPhone, could encourage more merchants to upgrade their point-of-sale system so they can accept mobile payments from both iPhones and the growing number of Android phones that are also equipped with NFC.

????“Smartphones didn’t take off until Apple came in,” says Mary Monahan, research director for mobile at Javelin. “Tablets didn’t take off until Apple came in. A lot of people are hoping that this is a game changer.”

????But recent publicity about hacking into Apple accounts of celebrities could pose a new obstacle for the company.

????“For this to work, Apple has to garner much more confidence in the security of what they offer,” says Tim Bajarin, a veteran Apple analyst with Creative Strategies.

????In the meantime, other parts of the mobile payment market are growing quickly. Javelin estimates consumers spend more than $56 billion in “mobile commerce” last year. The category includes not only e-commerce purchases made with mobile phones or tablets, but also purchases of services like rides through apps like Uber and Lyft, deliveries of food and merchandise through apps like Postmates and Seamless GrubHub, and others. Those in-app payments have quickly become a multi-billion business dominated by companies like PayPal’s Braintree and Stripe, one of the hottest payment companies to emerge in recent years.

????Finally, mobile person-to-person payments, which are enabled by banks and by companies like PayPal and Square, are also growing, though the total number of transactions remain small. It’s not clear whether the iPhone’s mobile wallet will enable these kinds of transactions.