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亞太地區(qū)領(lǐng)銜,2030年全球可再生能源支出有望飆升

亞太地區(qū)領(lǐng)銜,2030年全球可再生能源支出有望飆升

Michael Casey 2014年07月08日
報(bào)告顯示,在針對(duì)新增發(fā)電量的8萬億投資中,有三分之二的資金將會(huì)投入到可再生能源上。其中,中國、印度等國主導(dǎo)的亞太地區(qū)將占大約一半的份額。

????上周二公布的一項(xiàng)能源財(cái)經(jīng)報(bào)告顯示,到2030年會(huì)有將近8萬億美元的資金投入到世界各地的新增發(fā)電量上,其中有三分之二的資金將投入到可再生能源技術(shù)領(lǐng)域。

????彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)公布的這份《2030年市場前景報(bào)告》預(yù)計(jì),在5.1萬億美元的可再生能源新增開支中,亞太地區(qū)大約占據(jù)了一半的份額,之后是歐洲地區(qū)的9,670億美元,中東和非洲地區(qū)的8,180億美元,以及美洲地區(qū)的8,160億美元。

????報(bào)告還預(yù)測,到2030年,化石燃料在總發(fā)電量中將仍然占據(jù)著44%的最大份額,但相比目前64%的比例將出現(xiàn)大幅下降。屆時(shí),在1,073千兆瓦新增發(fā)電量中,絕大部分將來自于印度和中國這些嚴(yán)重依賴于化石燃料來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)蓬勃發(fā)展的發(fā)展中國家。

????“相比其它一些主流預(yù)測,這種按國家和技術(shù)類別來區(qū)分的能源市場投資預(yù)測更看好可再生能源未來在總發(fā)電量中所占據(jù)的份額,主要是因?yàn)槲覀儗?duì)持續(xù)成本降低抱有更加樂觀的看法,” 彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)咨詢委員會(huì)的主席邁克爾?利布瑞查在一份聲明中稱。

????他補(bǔ)充說:“我們預(yù)計(jì)到下一個(gè)十年期結(jié)束時(shí),全球二氧化碳排放量將會(huì)出現(xiàn)停止增長。但由于發(fā)展中國家的快速發(fā)展,發(fā)展中國家的化石燃料發(fā)電量以及可再生能源發(fā)電量都在持續(xù)增加,排放峰值的出現(xiàn)時(shí)間只會(huì)不斷延后?!?/p>

????可再生能源將在歐洲地區(qū)保持強(qiáng)勁增長勢(shì)頭,報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)到2030年它將會(huì)增加60%;與此同時(shí),煤炭和天然氣一類的傳統(tǒng)礦物燃料的使用量將有望減少近三分之一。

????通過對(duì)電力市場供應(yīng)和需求、技術(shù)成本演變以及個(gè)別國家和地區(qū)政策發(fā)展情況進(jìn)行建模之后,這份報(bào)告還預(yù)測,到2030年,歐洲地區(qū)將會(huì)新增557千兆瓦的可再生能源發(fā)電量。而在同一時(shí)期內(nèi),隨著排放法規(guī)的管制以及成本生成對(duì)比的結(jié)果逐漸傾向于可再生能源,燃煤發(fā)電量將會(huì)從195千兆瓦萎縮至125千兆瓦。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:徐黃兆

????Nearly $8 trillion will be invested in new generating capacity around the world by 2030, according to an energy finance report released Tuesday, with two-thirds of that going to renewable technologies.

????The report, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2030 Market Outlook, predicts Asia-Pacific will see about half of the $5.1 trillion in new spending on renewables, followed by $967 billion in Europe, $818 billion in the Middle East and Africa, and $816 billion in the Americas.

????The report predicts that fossil fuel will still provide the biggest share of power generation by 2030 at 44 percent, although that is a significant drop from current rates of 64 percent. Most of the 1,073GW in new capacity will come in developing countries, such as India and China, which depend heavily on coal to feed their booming economies.

????“This country-by-country, technology-by-technology forecast of power market investment is more bullish on renewable energy’s future share of total generation than some of the other major forecasts, largely because we have a more bullish view of continuing cost reductions,” Michael Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board for Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said in a statement.

????“What we are seeing is global CO2 emissions on track to stop growing by the end of next decade, with the peak only pushed back because of fast-growing developing countries, which continue adding fossil fuel capacity as well as renewables,” he added.

????Renewables will continue their strong growth in Europe, with the report projecting they will increase by 60 percent by 2030, while traditional fossil fuels such as coal and gas are expected to drop by nearly a third.

????Modeling electricity market supply and demand, technology cost evolution and policy development in individual countries and regions, the report forecasts that 557GW of new renewable power capacity will come online in Europe by 2030. In the same period, coal-fired capacity will shrink from 195GW to 125GW, as emission regulations take hold and the cost-of-generation comparison shifts in favor of renewables.

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