????過(guò)去幾年來(lái)，華爾街一直對(duì)孟山都的前景有點(diǎn)不以為然，部分原因是因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)反對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)基因作物的呼聲甚高。但近幾個(gè)財(cái)季，分析師卻開(kāi)始逐步調(diào)高孟山都的股價(jià)。這家公司公布第一財(cái)季的業(yè)績(jī)后，富國(guó)銀行（Wells Fargo）就這么做了。今年四月，這家公司宣布又成功收獲一個(gè)財(cái)季后，摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）也隨之跟進(jìn)。上周三，花旗集團(tuán)（Citigroup）的P.J.祖維卡干脆稱孟山都為“我們?cè)谵r(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域最鐘情的名字”，同時(shí)把它的目標(biāo)股價(jià)設(shè)為125美元——而當(dāng)天交易價(jià)格很快就超越這個(gè)價(jià)位（上周四，孟山都的股價(jià)略有回調(diào)，但仍然高于每股125美元）。

????而在買方也同樣可以看出這樣高漲的情緒。就在五月，格倫維尤資本管理公司（Glenview Capital Management）的拉里?羅賓斯在佐恩投資會(huì)議（Sohn Investment Conference）上堅(jiān)稱，孟山都的股價(jià)——當(dāng)時(shí)約為110美元——被嚴(yán)重低估了。盡管他對(duì)孟山都保持高達(dá)158億美元“干粉”（現(xiàn)金）的“囤積資本”多有不滿，但仍非?？春眠@家公司的前景。這家公司擁有“極高的準(zhǔn)入門檻”，同時(shí)由于農(nóng)戶基本上都和它簽訂了終生協(xié)議，它還享有“永久性地區(qū)壟斷”。他還指出，盡管未來(lái)15到20年中“玉米需求將翻倍”，但“種植面積卻不會(huì)同步增加”，從而要求畝產(chǎn)量必須遠(yuǎn)高于現(xiàn)在的水平。他說(shuō)：“在現(xiàn)實(shí)世界中，我們不可能按有機(jī)方式解決世界的饑荒問(wèn)題?！?/p>

????顯然，并不是所有的人都認(rèn)同這個(gè)判斷，但華爾街卻似乎很是贊同。農(nóng)戶們也是如此。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????For several years, Wall Street had been skittish about Monsanto’s prospects, in part because of the loud opposition to GMOs. No longer. Just over the past few quarters, analysts have been ratcheting up their target prices. Wells Fargo did so after the company’s first quarter results were announced. J.P. Morgan followed in April after another successful quarter. On Wednesday, Citigroup’s P.J. Juvekar called Monsanto “our favorite name in ag,” and set a price target of $125 — which was quickly surpassed in the day’s trading. (On Thursday, shares sank slightly, but were still trading just above $125.)

????Such sentiments are also found on the buy side. In May, Larry Robbins of the hedge fund Glenview Capital Management insisted during the Sohn Investment Conference that Monsanto’s shares — then trading at about $110 — were way undervalued. Though he complained about Monsanto “hoarding capital” with its $15.8 billion in “dry powder” (cash), he enthused about the company’s prospects. It enjoys “massive barriers to entry” and “perpetual local monopolies” thanks to farmers basically signing on with Monsanto for life. He noted that while “corn demand will double” over the next 15 or 20 years, “acres won’t,” necessitating far greater yields. “In the real world, we cannot solve world hunger on an organic basis,” Robbins said.

????Clearly, not everybody agrees with that assessment, but Wall Street sure seems to. And so do farmers.