????今年3月份，中國的進(jìn)出口情況急轉(zhuǎn)直下。同時，在貿(mào)易方面走勢遲緩的不光是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????今年3月份，中國出口額同比下降了6.6%，去年12月份的出口額則同比持平。這個數(shù)字低于許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測的上漲4%。不可否認(rèn)，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)會出現(xiàn)波動，而且很難解讀。有人認(rèn)為，出口下降的原因是中國企業(yè)通過出口規(guī)避資本管制的行為受到了整頓。《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）報道，高盛（Goldman Sachs）亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯?蒂爾頓稱之為中國出口下降的“主要原因”。

????最初，亞洲各個市場似乎確實沒有受到這些數(shù)字的影響，人們也許接受了這樣一種解釋，即出口額下降是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量較差所致。但全球經(jīng)濟(jì)與市場分析機構(gòu)高頻經(jīng)濟(jì)（High Frequency Economics）首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家卡爾?溫伯格卻沒有這么樂觀。

????溫伯格認(rèn)為，已經(jīng)有一連串令人擔(dān)心的跡象表明全球貿(mào)易正在急劇滑坡，中國的數(shù)據(jù)只是最新的一項證據(jù)。他指出，下圖表明“全球工業(yè)產(chǎn)出和全球貿(mào)易量顯然有著歷史性關(guān)聯(lián)”，而從圖中可以看出，貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)了異常。

????Chinese imports and exports fell off a cliff in March, and the Chinese economy isn't the only one dealing with lagging trade figures.

????Chinese exports plunged by 6.6% over the last 12 months ending in March, and they were flat in the year ended in December. This was well below the 4% increase in exports many economists had expected. True, data from China can be volatile and difficult to interpret. Some are attributing the drop to a crackdown on Chinese companies using exports as a means to evade capital controls. Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman Sachs in Asia, called this the "main reason" for the plunge, according to the Wall Street Journal.

????Markets in Asia did seem to shrug off the report initially, perhaps buying the explanation that the dip was due to bad Chinese data, but Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, isn't so optimistic.

????He argues that the data out of China is just the latest in a series of worrying signs that global trade is slumping. Weinberg points to an anomaly in trade data, pictured in the chart below, which shows "an obvious historic correlation between global industrial output and the volume of world trade."?

????問題在于，雖然出口增長率還沒有真正恢復(fù)到金融危機前的水平，工業(yè)產(chǎn)值的表現(xiàn)卻一直較為強勁。這種現(xiàn)象并不十分合理，原因是，要繼續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動，制造商總得找到地方把產(chǎn)品賣出去。溫伯格寫道：“這種情況意味著，我們只能預(yù)計這個異常現(xiàn)象將出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)，而且我們擔(dān)心實現(xiàn)的途徑是放慢生產(chǎn)速度?！?/p>

????換句話說，上圖可能預(yù)示著工業(yè)產(chǎn)值即將暴跌，而上周四公布的中國貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)只是又一次提醒人們，這種情況很快就會出現(xiàn)。

????那么，還有哪些地區(qū)的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)欠佳呢？它們大多數(shù)都在歐洲，英國和法國本周公布的出口數(shù)據(jù)都令人失望。表現(xiàn)出眾的主要是德國——最近公布的德國出口額比上年同期增長了4.6%。但這可能恰恰表明，歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)在獲得動力的過程中并沒有實現(xiàn)再平衡。也就是說，歐洲依然沒能擺脫對德國出口的過度依賴。

????貿(mào)易滑坡時到底應(yīng)該怎么辦？溫伯格的建議是施加刺激，他寫到：

????應(yīng)對政策很簡單，那就是促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。增長之中的經(jīng)濟(jì)會更多地進(jìn)口，從而擴(kuò)大其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體的出口額。就是這么簡單。然而，只要全世界大部分地區(qū)的財政政策仍致力于緊縮，只要這些地區(qū)的貨幣政策繼續(xù)緊縮銀根，全球需求就會處于低迷狀態(tài)，貿(mào)易就不會欣欣向榮。

????當(dāng)然，說著容易做著難。英國和法國都在政府債務(wù)的重壓之下掙扎。同時，中國看起來正在推動讓經(jīng)濟(jì)更加開放和自由的計劃，而這就意味著中國政府不能毫無顧忌地采用以往那些可能導(dǎo)致不穩(wěn)定因素的的常用刺激措施，比如貨幣貶值和大量發(fā)行貨幣。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????

????The problem is, while export growth hasn't really recovered to pre-crisis levels, industrial production has somehow stayed strong. This doesn't make a lot of sense, as producers need to sell their products somewhere in order to keep up economic activity. "That means we have to expect the anomaly to reverse, and we are worried that it will happen through a retracement of the pace of production," Weinberg writes.

????In other words, the above chart could be a sign that industrial production is about to fall off a cliff, and the data out of China on Thursday is just another warning sign that this will happen soon.

????So where else is trade suffering? Mostly in Europe, where both Britain and France announced disappointing export figures this week. The main outlier is Germany, which recently reported a 4.6% year-over-year growth in exports. But this might simply be a sign that Europe is failing to rebalance its own economy -- away from an over-reliance on German exports -- as the European economy gains strength.

????What to do about this slumping trade? Weinberg suggests stimulus, writing

????The policy response is simple: Boost economic growth. Growing economies import more, boosting the exports of other economies. It's just that simple. As long as fiscal policy in much of the world remains committed to austerity and monetary policy remains tapped out, global demand will be weak and trade will not flourish.

????That's easier said than done, of course. Britain and France are both struggling under large amounts of government debt. Meanwhile, China appears to be moving forward with plans to make its economy more open and liberal, which means it won't be able to resort to its usual stimulative tactics like currency depreciation and pumping cheap money into its economy without facing destabilizing consequences.