????多年來(lái)，IBM在科技巨頭中堪稱(chēng)一枝獨(dú)秀：盡管收入增長(zhǎng)遲緩，卻仍為投資者所青睞。原因在于，這家公司一直在堅(jiān)定不移、巧妙高明地一步步提高自己的每股收益數(shù)字。但羅睿蘭出任CEO兩年后，IBM陷入了困境：公司收入持續(xù)萎縮的同時(shí)，雄心勃勃的每股收益目標(biāo)也變得難以企及。

????去年，IBM的股價(jià)下跌了13%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)比不上同期標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)（S&P 500）19%的漲幅。而之前4年，IBM的表現(xiàn)一直優(yōu)于標(biāo)普500指數(shù)，漲幅高達(dá)126%，跑贏了基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)標(biāo)普500的97%漲幅。

????IBM用一份路線(xiàn)圖向投資者承諾：到2015年實(shí)現(xiàn)每股收益20美元。這是一個(gè)了不起的目標(biāo)，特別是考慮到2002年這家公司的每股收益只有1.81美元。過(guò)去IBM也設(shè)定過(guò)類(lèi)似的目標(biāo)：上一份路線(xiàn)圖承諾到2010年實(shí)現(xiàn)每股收益10美元的目標(biāo)，結(jié)果提前一年就實(shí)現(xiàn)了目標(biāo)。

????但這一次，有些人開(kāi)始擔(dān)憂(yōu)IBM打算如何實(shí)現(xiàn)新的目標(biāo)。這其中甚至包括IBM自己。IBM上周發(fā)布了年度報(bào)告，其中，羅睿蘭在致股東信中寫(xiě)到：“公司表現(xiàn)未能達(dá)到我們的預(yù)期”，2013年收入和營(yíng)運(yùn)利潤(rùn)雙雙下滑。但I(xiàn)BM下定決心，采用一切可能的方式實(shí)現(xiàn)每股收益20美元的目標(biāo)。

????部分分析師表示，IBM公司有很多手段可以推高每股收益，包括激進(jìn)的回購(gòu)和裁員，因此路線(xiàn)圖其實(shí)無(wú)關(guān)緊要。例如，上一季度IBM的收益之所以超出華爾街預(yù)期，很大程度上是由于稅額較低。今年，IBM將服務(wù)器業(yè)務(wù)以23億美元的價(jià)格賣(mài)給了聯(lián)想（Lenovo），也將給它的業(yè)績(jī)帶來(lái)幫助。

????鑒于所有這些手段和工具，華爾街預(yù)計(jì)IBM有望能實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)。但所有這些手段都忽視了損益表中的另一項(xiàng)重要內(nèi)容——收入。過(guò)去7個(gè)季度，IBM收入一直在持續(xù)萎縮。分析師預(yù)計(jì)，2014年全年IBM的收入將繼續(xù)下降。

????IBM的收入來(lái)自從軟件到硬件、再?gòu)淖稍?xún)到外包IT服務(wù)的眾多部門(mén)。過(guò)去2年，軟件是IBM唯一一個(gè)收入持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的部門(mén)。IBM最大的業(yè)務(wù)部門(mén)——全球IT服務(wù)去年收入減少了4.3%。收入下降最大的是服務(wù)器、存儲(chǔ)等硬件業(yè)務(wù)：去年下降了18%，再之前的2012年下降了8%。

????硬件收入下降已經(jīng)呈現(xiàn)出加速的跡象：去年第四季度下降了26%。據(jù)市場(chǎng)調(diào)研公司蓋特納（Gartner）估計(jì)，去年第四季度全球服務(wù)器銷(xiāo)售下降了6.6%。盡管市場(chǎng)萎縮，IBM的市場(chǎng)占有率仍從上年同期的34.5%降至了26.5%。

????For years, IBM (IBM) was that rare tech giant: beloved by investors despite sluggish revenue growth. That was because the company was as determined as it was clever about ratcheting up its earnings-per-share figure. But two years into Ginni Rometty's tenure as CEO, the company faces a double dilemma: Revenue is shrinking while the company is having trouble hitting its ambitious EPS targets.

????IBM's stock is down 13% over the past year, while the S&P 500 (SPX) is up 19% in the same period. Over the previous four years, IBM had been outperforming the S&P 500, rising 126% to the benchmark index's 97%.

????IBM made a pledge to investors in the guise of a roadmap: generate $20 in earnings per share by 2015. It's an impressive goal, especially when you consider that the company's EPS in 2002 was only $1.81 a share. IBM has set out similar goals -- an earlier roadmap vowed $10 EPS by 2010 and reached that figure a year early.

????But this time some are wondering how the company will get there. Including IBM. In the company's annual report released this week, Rometty wrote in a letter to shareholders that "our performance did not meet our expectations" as revenue and operating income both declined in 2013. Yet IBM is determined to reach that $20 EPS goal in any way it can.

????Some analysts have suggested the company has so many levers to pull in driving earnings per share higher, like aggressive buybacks and layoffs, that the roadmap has lost relevance. IBM beat the Street's profit forecast last quarter, for example, largely because of lower taxes. This year, it will be aided by the $2.3 billion sale of its server business to Lenovo.

????With all those levers, Wall Street is expecting IBM to reach the targets. But all while overlooking another important line on the income statement: revenue. IBM's revenue has been shrinking for the past seven quarters. Analysts expect the company to see revenue decline again throughout 2014.

????IBM's revenue comes from a broad array of divisions, from software to hardware to consulting to outsourced IT services. Over the past two years, software has been the only division to see consistent growth. The largest segment, global IT services, fell 4.3% last year. The biggest decline came from hardware like servers and storage: down 18% last year after falling 8% in 2012.

????The revenue decline in hardware has been showing signs of accelerating, falling 26% in the fourth quarter. Gartner estimates that sales of servers around the world fell 6.6% in the quarter. Even within that shrinking market, IBM saw its share slide to 26.5% from 34.5% in the year-ago quarter.