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??松梨跍p支方案引發(fā)投資者恐慌

埃克森美孚減支方案引發(fā)投資者恐慌

Cyrus Sanati 2014年03月11日
2013年國(guó)際油價(jià)接近歷史高點(diǎn),但??松梨诘臉I(yè)績(jī)竟然沒(méi)有達(dá)到預(yù)期。最近,這家公司更是決定大幅削減開(kāi)支,結(jié)果卻引發(fā)股價(jià)下跌,甚至拖累了整個(gè)道瓊斯指數(shù)。投資者擔(dān)心,這家公司削減開(kāi)支、而不是增加投資,將削弱未來(lái)的盈利能力。

????

????假如說(shuō)以前還看不清,現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)很清楚了:大型石油公司眼下碰到大麻煩了。

????在國(guó)際油價(jià)保持每桶100美元左右、接近歷史高點(diǎn)的一年里,??松梨?ExxonMobil)這家一流能源公司上周三在紐約的分析師會(huì)議上公布,2013年的已動(dòng)用資本回報(bào)率(ROCE)為17%。我重復(fù)一遍,是17%。伙計(jì)們,這是一個(gè)很糟糕的數(shù)字。

????應(yīng)該承認(rèn),17%的ROCE已經(jīng)是很多公司夢(mèng)寐以求的水平,即使是其他一些能源公司。但它是??松梨凇U劦介_(kāi)采化石燃料,沒(méi)有其他能源公司能像??松梨谀菢娱L(zhǎng)袖善舞,用好政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)資源。2000-2010年,??松梨赗OCE的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)令人稱奇,內(nèi)部基準(zhǔn)是35%;ROCE可以衡量已運(yùn)用資本的盈利能力和使用效率。據(jù)一位長(zhǎng)期服務(wù)于??松梨诘墓こ處煴硎荆琑OCE低于30%會(huì)被公司保守派視為失敗。

????但金融危機(jī)終結(jié)了埃克森美孚的盈利盛宴。期間,石油和天然氣價(jià)格暴跌,因此,埃克森美孚的ROCE大跌也是意料之中的事情。但它的ROCE當(dāng)時(shí)仍然保持在25%左右的水平。這個(gè)數(shù)字盡管不如人意,但也還算不上世界末日。因此,投資者們沒(méi)有揪住不放。他們相信一旦混亂結(jié)束,??松梨诰蜁?huì)重振雄風(fēng)。

????而現(xiàn)在,我們得到的是17%。即使油價(jià)高企,這家公司的ROCE卻連20%都沒(méi)有達(dá)到?更令人尷尬的是,另一家美國(guó)能源大公司雪佛龍(Chevron)的ROCE預(yù)計(jì)將輕松超越??松梨凇?010年以來(lái)每年都是如此。

????這一定讓埃克森美孚的首席執(zhí)行官雷克斯·蒂勒森非常心煩。周三,蒂勒森采取了行動(dòng),他相信減少支出能提升??松梨趥髌嫘缘挠芰Α5倮丈鋈艘饬系匦?,2014年??松梨邶嫶蟮贸銎娴?00億美元資本支出預(yù)算將削減40億美元,降幅約10%。減少資本支出意味著如果利潤(rùn)保持不變,ROCE將上升。這可能是一個(gè)好點(diǎn)子,畢竟一個(gè)項(xiàng)目需要幾年、甚至幾十年的時(shí)間才能開(kāi)始產(chǎn)生回報(bào)。

????那么,蒂勒森的做法是對(duì)的?市場(chǎng)可不這么認(rèn)為:消息公布后,??松梨诘墓蓛r(jià)跌了3%,還拉低了整個(gè)道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)。蒂勒森一定很困惑。他認(rèn)為,他做的正是股東和分析師們希望他做的,提高ROCE。

????ROCE雖然重要,但并不是投資者關(guān)心的唯一指標(biāo)。投資??松梨诘娜藗兺潜J氐膬r(jià)值投資者,比起是否實(shí)現(xiàn)一些財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),他們更看重長(zhǎng)期持續(xù)的現(xiàn)金流。例如,價(jià)值投資之王沃倫·巴菲特去年11月份披露,2013年第二季度他增持了近1%的??松梨诠善保兄导s34.5億美元。

????巴菲特買入埃克森美孚的同時(shí),相對(duì)較大幅度地減持了江河日下的能源巨頭康菲(ConocoPhillips)公司的股票,后者目前正在經(jīng)歷重大重組。有些投資者認(rèn)為他的選擇十分奇怪,因?yàn)榭捣频墓蓛r(jià)當(dāng)時(shí)年內(nèi)漲幅為27%,而??松梨诘墓蓛r(jià)只漲了8%。但這關(guān)乎價(jià)值投資主題。??松梨诘睦麧?rùn)穩(wěn)定,具有明確的長(zhǎng)期盈利潛力,而康菲的未來(lái)仍未可知。不確定性并不是價(jià)值投資者的最愛(ài),即便放棄不確定性可能意味著放棄一些上漲空間。

??????松梨诒砻?,就算油價(jià)波動(dòng),盡可能實(shí)現(xiàn)回報(bào)率穩(wěn)定也是有意義的。如果它表示,將投資400億美元,投資者們相信,未來(lái)一些年,這家公司的ROCE將達(dá)到世界級(jí)水平。

????因此,上周三當(dāng)?shù)倮丈紝⑾鳒p資本支出預(yù)算時(shí),投資者們奪路而逃。他們?cè)菊J(rèn)為,??松梨跁?huì)繼續(xù)向新項(xiàng)目投錢,這些項(xiàng)目的長(zhǎng)期回報(bào)率將保持在強(qiáng)勁的20%-30%。當(dāng)然,如果能把多出來(lái)的40億美元分給股東也不錯(cuò),但這只能管一年。價(jià)值投資者著眼于長(zhǎng)期,削減資本支出意味著可以預(yù)見(jiàn)未來(lái)收入的減少。

????當(dāng)然,沒(méi)人說(shuō)??松梨趩渭?yōu)榱瞬婚e著就應(yīng)該投資不盈利的業(yè)務(wù),雖然太多公司都在這么干。聽(tīng)到一家公司自己都認(rèn)為自己無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)足夠高的回報(bào)率,難以讓精心規(guī)劃的資本支出預(yù)算自圓其說(shuō),投資者們一定非常失望。

????更讓人擔(dān)心的是——??松梨谡J(rèn)為17%的ROCE已足夠好,足以捍衛(wèi)去年龐大的資本支出?如果真的是這樣,既然??松梨谀軓倪@些項(xiàng)目上輕松地削減這么多支出,它究竟認(rèn)為未來(lái)一些項(xiàng)目能帶來(lái)多大的回報(bào)?15%?還是10%?大家自己可以看看這種想法引發(fā)了怎樣的恐慌。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:楊智

????

????If it wasn't clear before, it certainly is now: Big Oil has got some big problems.

????In a year in which oil remained near historic highs at around $100 a barrel, ExxonMobil (XOM), the all-around best-in-class energy company, said on Wednesday at its analyst meeting in New York that its return on capital employed (ROCE) for 2013 was 17%. Let me repeat that -- 17%. This is bad, people.

????Admittedly, achieving a 17% ROCE is something many companies would kill for -- even other energy companies. But this is ExxonMobil. No other energy company is as skilled or as adept at maneuvering the political and economic quagmire that comes with drilling for fossil fuels than Grandpappy Exxon. In the 2000s, ExxonMobil's ROCE, which is a measure of profitability and efficiency of how capital is employed, was legendary for its strength and power, with 35% considered the internal benchmark. Achieving a level below 30% was considered failure among Exxon's conservative lot, according to a long-time engineer at the firm.

????But the financial crisis put an end to ExxonMobil's profit party. Oil and natural gas prices plummeted, and, as one would expect, so did Exxon's ROCE. It still stayed in the mid 20% range, which, while disappointing, wasn't the end of the world. But investors cut the company some slack. They thought that once the tumult was over Exxon would again reign supreme.

????And now we have this -- 17%. Even amid high oil prices, the company couldn't even hit 20%? Even more embarrassing, Chevron (CVX), the other big U.S. energy company, is expected to beat Exxon hands down when it comes to ROCE -- it has done so every year since 2010.

????This must be very disturbing for Rex Tillerson, ExxonMobil's chief executive. On Wednesday, Tillerson took action, which he believes will boost Exxon's legendary profitability -- spend less. In a surprise move, Tillerson said that 2014 will see a $4 billion, or about 10%, decrease in ExxonMobil's ridiculously large $40 billion capital expenditures budget. Spending less capital means that the ratio will go up, provided that profits stay level. That's probably a good bet considering that it takes years, even decades, for a project to start paying off.

????So is Tillerson making the right move? The markets don't think so -- Exxon's stock price sank 3% after the announcement, dragging the entire Dow Jones Industrial Index down with it. Tillerson must be very confused. He is doing exactly what he thought shareholders and analysts wanted -- delivering a higher ROCE.

????But while ROCE is an important metric, it isn't the only thing investors care about. People who invest in ExxonMobil tend to be conservative value players, more interested in consistent cash flow with long time horizons than with hitting some financial target. For example, Warren Buffett, the king of value investing, disclosed last November that he had accumulated a nearly 1% stake in ExxonMobil during the second quarter of 2013, equating to some $3.45 billion.

????At the same time he bought Exxon, Buffett slashed his relatively large stake in dimming energy giant ConocoPhillips (COP), which, at the time, was going through a major reorganization. Some investors found his choice strange as ConocoPhillips' stock was up 27% for the year at that point, while Exxon's stock was up only 8%. But it plays to the theme of value investing. Exxon's earnings are stable, with defined long term earnings potential, while COP's future had been up in the air. Uncertainty isn't ideal for value investors, even if it means giving up some of the upside.

????Exxon has made a point to be as consistent as possible with its returns, despite, of course, the volatility in oil prices. When it says it is going to invest $40 billion, investors trust that the company will deliver world-class returns on that money over the next few years.

????That's why when Tillerson said on Wednesday that he was cutting the CapEx budget, investors ran for the exits. They had projected that Exxon would continue to plough money into new projects and that those projects would yield strong and consistent 20% to 30% returns over time. Sure, it is nice to have that extra $4 billion returned to shareholders, but that's just this year. Value investors are in it for the long haul and cutting CapEx means that they should expect decreased revenue down the road.

????To be sure, no one is saying that Exxon should invest in unprofitable ventures just to keep busy -- too many companies already do that. It was just disappointing for investors to hear that the company doesn't believe it can deliver a strong enough return to justify their carefully planned CapEx budget.

????Then there is the big fear -- did Exxon think a 17% ROCE was a strong enough return to justify last year's massive capital expenditure outlay? If so, what exactly does Exxon think its future projects will yield if they can so easily slash so much off of it -- 15%? Maybe 10%? You can see how this might have caused a bit of a panic.

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