????這種點(diǎn)對(duì)點(diǎn)金融和智能合同最具投機(jī)性和長(zhǎng)期潛在功能的是眾所周知的各種形態(tài)的“智能資產(chǎn)”。這個(gè)理念首先是由計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)家和喬治華盛頓大學(xué)（George Washington University）的前法學(xué)教授尼克?紹博（他經(jīng)常被人懷疑就是匿名的比特幣創(chuàng)始人中本聰）在1997年發(fā)表的一篇論文中探討的。紹博在這篇論文中把智能合同定義為不是由法律、而是由那些將“完全嵌入財(cái)產(chǎn)及處置它們的合同條款中的”硬件和軟件強(qiáng)制執(zhí)行的協(xié)議。他用簡(jiǎn)單的自動(dòng)售貨機(jī)作為現(xiàn)成的例子。但是將通訊技術(shù)和比特幣數(shù)據(jù)區(qū)塊鏈結(jié)合起來(lái)就能開(kāi)拓更具吸引力的前景——比如，那些能夠讀取數(shù)據(jù)區(qū)塊鏈的汽車如果沒(méi)有及時(shí)還貸就可以自行停駛。與神秘的中本聰齊名的比特幣架構(gòu)的主要開(kāi)發(fā)者之一麥克?赫恩曾表示，這個(gè)理念要得以實(shí)現(xiàn)至少還需要十年，因?yàn)樗枰獙?shí)體商品進(jìn)行硬件升級(jí)。

????在比特幣擁躉們的口中，能通過(guò)比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)自動(dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn)的金融功能似乎無(wú)窮無(wú)盡，比如點(diǎn)對(duì)點(diǎn)投資基金，類似Kickstarter的眾籌，強(qiáng)制性仲裁，甚至包括命名權(quán)管理和加密通訊這樣跟金融無(wú)關(guān)的事務(wù)。而且所有這些都不再需要假手中介就能完成。對(duì)比特幣黨人來(lái)說(shuō)，不管是開(kāi)發(fā)者還是普通用戶，他們似乎常常因?yàn)檫@樣一種想法而暗自得意，也就是說(shuō)，他們正對(duì)華爾街那些金融機(jī)構(gòu)的控制權(quán)和利潤(rùn)構(gòu)成威脅。在他們眼里，這些機(jī)構(gòu)就是靠尋租發(fā)家的暴發(fā)戶。哪怕僅限于降低支付和轉(zhuǎn)賬費(fèi)用，比特幣對(duì)現(xiàn)在這些金融機(jī)構(gòu)的威脅也是巨大的。而如果考慮到不久的將來(lái)大量金融服務(wù)都將完全無(wú)需傭金，那就更有理由要加倍提防了。

????米德?tīng)栴D宣稱“我現(xiàn)在所做的就是對(duì)龐大的商業(yè)銀行的直接威脅”時(shí)，他聽(tīng)起來(lái)有點(diǎn)像是個(gè)18世紀(jì)反抗帝國(guó)統(tǒng)治的海盜。對(duì)他來(lái)說(shuō)，光知道為了比特幣價(jià)值的起起伏伏而激動(dòng)是一種不得要領(lǐng)的表現(xiàn)：“人們光坐著想比特幣到底是不是個(gè)泡沫時(shí)，其實(shí)還談不上什么威脅。但當(dāng)人們深入了解比特幣協(xié)議并展開(kāi)想象時(shí)，他們才會(huì)意識(shí)到現(xiàn)有體系確實(shí)是受到了威脅?！?/p>

????不過(guò)，這場(chǎng)即將到來(lái)的革命面前還存在一個(gè)巨大的阻礙。盡管2013年已經(jīng)涌現(xiàn)出Coinbase這樣大幅優(yōu)化比特幣交易流程的交易平臺(tái)，但要快速可靠地用比特幣來(lái)兌換美元依然很困難。現(xiàn)在還不清楚，如果沒(méi)有一個(gè)快速可靠的美元和比特幣交易的平臺(tái)，米德?tīng)栴D所謂的美元和比特幣的自動(dòng)對(duì)沖交易怎么才能可行。所以，比特幣的各種功能要真正實(shí)現(xiàn)“自動(dòng)化”，并與整體經(jīng)濟(jì)相融合，可能還是要與現(xiàn)存各類交易平臺(tái)整合起來(lái)才行。

????在Mastercoin的發(fā)言人多米尼克?澤尼斯眼里，即將到來(lái)的轉(zhuǎn)變則更溫和也更微妙。他根據(jù)20世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約瑟夫?熊彼得的顛覆式創(chuàng)新理論將現(xiàn)在的情況和能源業(yè)做了個(gè)類比：“我們還在（燒）柴。燒煤的電廠也很多。這些都沒(méi)有消失，而（新技術(shù)）才剛剛開(kāi)始冒頭?！碑?dāng)然，一般來(lái)說(shuō)，新技術(shù)最終會(huì)證明自己更有力，也常常更有利可圖。澤尼斯預(yù)計(jì)，有些金融機(jī)構(gòu)會(huì)足夠靈活，適者生存?！叭绻沂且患彝顿Y公司，我會(huì)把（點(diǎn)對(duì)點(diǎn)金融）視為一個(gè)機(jī)遇。我是因?yàn)樗行示晚槃?shì)而為呢，還是我對(duì)此根本不做投資，然后過(guò)了10到20年等著被市場(chǎng)淘汰呢？”

????所以說(shuō)，所有銀行家和股票經(jīng)紀(jì)人可能都不會(huì)走煤礦工人、電話接線員或唱片店店員的老路。但是，其他被顛覆行業(yè)的慘痛教訓(xùn)現(xiàn)在可能會(huì)以前所未有的方式被金融機(jī)構(gòu)所吸取。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

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????The most speculative and long-range potential functions of peer-to-peer finance and smart contracts are forms of what's known as "Smart Property." This idea was explored in a 1997 paper by computer scientist and former George Washington University law professor Nick Szabo (who has come under occasional suspicion of being pseudonymous bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto). In the paper, Szabo defines smart contracts as agreements enforced not by law, but by hardware or software that would "fully embed in property the contractual terms which deal with it." Szabo offers the humble vending machine as an existing case. But combining telecommunications with the Bitcoin blockchain presents more intriguing possibilities -- for example, cars able to read the blockchain could disable themselves if a loan payment wasn't made on time. Mike Hearn, one of the main developers of the Bitcoin architecture alongside the mysterious Nakamoto, has said that any implementation of the concept is at least a decade away because of the need for hardware upgrades on physical goods.

????The functions that advocates say could be automated through the Bitcoin network seem nearly endless, including peer-to-peer investment funds, Kickstarter-like crowdfunding, binding arbitrations, and even non-financial transactions such as naming rights management and encrypted communication. And all could be executed without a cut for intermediaries. Bitcoin partisans, from developers down to rank-and-file users, often seem to revel in the idea that they are threatening the control and profits of Wall Street institutions, who they see as rent-seeking fat cats. If it were limited to the loss of fees on payments and transfers, bitcoin's threat to existing financial institutions would still be substantial. But with a full array of commission-free financial services on the horizon, there is even more reason to take heed.

????Middleton sounds a bit like an 18th-century pirate striking back against the Empire when he declares that "what I'm doing right now is a direct threat to fiat merchant banking." For him, excitement over value fluctuations in the bitcoin currency is missing the point: "It's not a threat as people sit there and ponder whether bitcoin is a bubble or not. But if people go through the protocol and use their imagination, the existing system is threatened."

????However, there is a substantial obstacle to this coming revolution. Despite the emergence in 2013 of entities like Coinbase that have drastically streamlined the process, it is still difficult to exchange bitcoin for national currencies in a quick, reliable manner. It's unclear how Middleton's automated dollar-bitcoin hedging will work without a lightning-quick and reliable dollar-bitcoin exchange platform. So, the true "automation" of bitcoin functions that integrate with the economy as a whole may require a reconciliation with existing trading platforms.

????Dominik Zynis, the Mastercoin spokesperson, sees a gentler, more granular transition. Citing studies on disruptive innovation by the likes of 20th-century economist Joseph Shumpeter, he makes an analogy with the energy industry. "We're still [burning] wood. There's coal-fired power plants. Those didn't go away, [new technology] just got added on top." Usually, of course, that new technology has ultimately proven more powerful, and often enough more profitable. Some financial institutions, Zynis predicts, will be nimble enough to adapt. "If I'm an investment firm, do I see [peer-to-peer finance] as an opportunity, and adopt it, because it's ... more efficient? Or do I not make the investment, and in 10 or 20 years I become irrelevant?"

????So, all bankers and stockbrokers might not go the way of the coal miner, telephone operator, or record store clerk. But the hard lessons of other upturned industries may now be relevant to the financial sector in ways they never were before.