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2014大展望:三大趨勢統(tǒng)治科技界

2014大展望:三大趨勢統(tǒng)治科技界

JP Mangalindan 2014-01-02
展望剛剛到來的2014年,分析人士認為,貧富差距拉大引發(fā)的舊金山文化沖突還將進一步激化,可穿戴設備在新的一年大行其道,而更多科技公司將成功上市。

????約翰?多恩有一句詩很出名:沒有人是一座孤島。這句話用來描述科技界尤為貼切。一家新創(chuàng)的高科技企業(yè)、一款新應用、一種新硬件都可能會給整個社會帶來實質(zhì)性的改變。

????新的一年到來之際,我們一起來展望科技界的未來,看看哪些重要的議題將在2014年吸引科技界的注意?

????舊金山的文化戰(zhàn)在緩和之前還將愈演愈烈。舊金山過去似乎是美國夢的有力證據(jù),如今卻被那些對收入差距不斷拉大感到惱火的市民所鄙視。有些憤怒的市民甚至組織了小規(guī)模抗議活動。谷歌(Google)的一輛班車就在兩周前加州奧克蘭市舉行的一場抗議活動中被毀壞。隨著越來越多的非技術人員感受到房租上漲和就業(yè)市場競爭日趨白熱化的影響,這種緊張局勢預計將在未來幾個月持續(xù)發(fā)酵。Inkling首席執(zhí)行官馬特?麥金尼斯在本月早些時候向筆者表示:“我認為最終的結(jié)果將是各群體展開實質(zhì)性的政治交鋒。這可能不是那些煽風點火的人希望看到的結(jié)果,但我認為這是未來回出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果。”

????可穿戴式設備崛起。(沒錯,是真正的崛起。)據(jù)英國研究機構(gòu)IMS Research預測,到2016年,可穿戴式計算機設備的市場價值有望達到60億美元。而谷歌眼鏡(Google Glass)等可穿戴設備在2013年趁勢狠狠炒作了一把。但說實話,可穿戴設備在2013年的確鳳毛麟角,雖然出現(xiàn)了幾款產(chǎn)品,例如三星Galaxy Gear智能手表,但功能少得可憐。這類新式計算機設備只不過是為人們提供了談資的小眾商品。至于谷歌眼鏡?Box公司首席執(zhí)行官亞倫?利維近日接受《財富》采訪時,直言不諱地表示:“谷歌眼鏡任重道遠,它離大家的期待還遠著呢?!保▊€人用戶版谷歌眼鏡根本就還沒有面世。)改進版的谷歌眼鏡有望于2014年發(fā)布,價格在250美元到600美元之間。如果消息屬實,競爭對手肯定會迅速跟進。

????更多新創(chuàng)企業(yè)上市。Twitter的上市堪稱成功,股價目前也達到了63美元,比發(fā)行價高出42%,無疑將拉高不少公司對IPO的期待。Facebook和Twitter的成功上市為其它新創(chuàng)企業(yè)的上市鋪平了道路。杰克?多西手中的公司之一Square是IPO列表中的熱門人選。有報道稱,在線信用卡交易公司Square 2014年收入有望達到10億美元。其余有可能上市的公司還包括云存儲廠商Box和Dropbox。

????No man is an island, the famous John Donne poem reads. It's especially appropriate for tech, where one new startup, app, or slab of hardware can bring about meaningful change in society.

????As another year winds down for this dynamic industry, we look ahead. What do we think will be the major topics taking up the technology world's attention next year?

????San Francisco's culture war gets worse before it gets better. What once seemed like a booming testament to the American Dream is generating scorn from city residents irked about the growing economic divide. Some are so bothered, they've organized small protests, including one that resulted in the vandalism of a Google (GOOG) bus in Oakland, Calif. two weeks ago. Expect the tension to mount in the coming months as more non-tech workers feel the effects of higher rents and a fiercely competitive job market. "I think the end result will be actual political engagement between the groups," Inkling CEO Matt MacInnis told me earlier this month. "It may not be what the inflammatory people want, but I think it's going to happen."

????Wearables take off. (Yes, really.) 2013 was a year of baseless hype for wearable computer devices like Google Glass -- a market worth as much as $6 billion by 2016, calculates U.K. firm IMS Research. But in truth, wearables remained scarce this year, and those up for grabs, like Samsung's Galaxy Gear smartwatch remain too limited features-wise to be anything but niche conversation starters. As for Glass? "The delta between expectations that have been created and the actual reality shows they have a lot more work to do," Box CEO Aaron Levie told Fortuneearlier this month. (The consumer version of Glass isn't even out yet.) A more polished Glass is expected to hit next year between $250 and $600. When it does, expect competitors to quickly follow.

????More startups take the public route. Twitter's successful public offering -- at $63, it's priced 42% higher than its initial price -- will spur some companies to make good on their IPO ambitions. The recent debuts of Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) have paved the way for other startups to dive into the public markets. Square, Jack Dorsey's other company, may be one of them. The credit-card processing startup reportedly expects $1 billion in revenues next year. Others, including file-syncing competitors Box and Dropbox, may do the same.

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